Weather

[William of Walworth]

NFRNFC

Edited April 15, 2013 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Very early general forecast pinched from 'Stormchaser' on a technical forum called CFS, and reposted on the 'Summer 2013' discussion thread on netweather forums :

June and July are similar, with extensive mid-latitude +ve anomalies giving the UK a lot of fine, warm or hot weather, while August sees the pattern shift northward to leave the UK less settled and potentially rather cool at times.

CFS has been suggesting that June and July will be better than August this summer, and now I can see at least some of the reason why.

Edited April 15, 2013 by William of Walworth

[rexclark]

Anyone who says 2010 wasn't perfect weather is deluded. Yes it was very hot but that's what we want! I'm a pale, ginger Scotsman and I'm definitely not used to the hot weather but I coped and I enjoyed myself so much more than I did in the rain of 2011. It was warm until the earlier hours of the morning so no need to dive back to the tent for warmer clothes and no need to carry a tonne of stuff just incase the wet stuff did appear.

For 2013 we want 2010 weather, No Clouds, No Mud, No Rain, No Fucking Compromise!

[Wooderson]

This sucker will hit 100 pages by mid June.

Edited April 15, 2013 by Wooderson

[Kyelo]

Anyone who says 2010 wasn't perfect weather is deluded. Yes it was very hot but that's what we want! I'm a pale, ginger Scotsman and I'm definitely not used to the hot weather but I coped and I enjoyed myself so much more than I did in the rain of 2011. It was warm until the earlier hours of the morning so no need to dive back to the tent for warmer clothes and no need to carry a tonne of stuff just incase the wet stuff did appear.

For 2013 we want 2010 weather, No Clouds, No Mud, No Rain, No Fucking Compromise!

[Ed209]

Very early general forecast pinched from 'Stormchaser' on a technical forum called CFS, and reposted on the 'Summer 2013' discussion thread on netweather forums :

The above is by no means reliable yet, but there are plenty of other posters over on netweather , people who have good technical weather knowledge, who are starting to be optimistic in these early stages.

One good ground for hope this year is simple balance -- last June (2012) was a complete washout, as anyone who was with us at the laughably named and disastrous Sunrise Celebration (held 12 miles from Pilton over the usual Glasto weekend) will testify.

I've also read a suggestion in the Graun the other day that there's been a good track record historically in the UK of long winters/late springs being followed by good summers. But I have to say I'm suspicious about that one and haven't seen proper data.

Once we get to May, I'll send a polite request to JACKONE over on netweather for his usual Glastonbury forecasting thread. Best leave it until at least midMayish though, as any attempted forecast ahead of that will lack crucial data and may raise hopes unduly ... he prefers to leave it until getting nearer the half reliable timeframe.

By the way HELLO AGAIN to all efestivals Glasto weather watchers. I'm finally back after a long semiretirement ...

[William of Walworth]

Thanks Ed. Will try and be back regularly.

Is this the official 'Glastonbury 2013 weather thread' then folks?

Just realised (today) that there's also another, longer one -- the 'NFR NFC' one.

Which one rules on the 'officiality' front?

[Ed209]

Let's keep realistic weather posting with sound scientific basis to this thread, and the NFR NFC cult can have that thread for their nonsense

[LondonTom]

Just realised (today) that there's also another, longer one -- the 'NFR NFC' one.

Which one rules on the 'officiality' front?

Edited April 16, 2013 by LondonTom

[ICGenie]

Too hot is a problem for like 4 hours a day. Too wet is a problem all day and all night long.

NFR NFC.

[jeffie]

Bit early to start checking, but who can resist, it's what long range forecasts are there for. Metcheck looks ok.

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/180days.asp?MonthOf=6&zipcode=glastonbury#.UW1JqhVwZ9M

[Dixo]

Bit early to start checking, but who can resist, it's what long range forecasts are there for. Metcheck looks ok.

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/180days.asp?MonthOf=6&zipcode=glastonbury#.UW1JqhVwZ9M

[William of Walworth]

NFR NFC is the only real choice in talk about the weather if we want wall to wall sunshine...

However if you want to rely on "satellites" and "scientists" analyzing weather patterns and upset the weather gods so we have a mud bath. Go ahead, condemn us all!

Edited April 16, 2013 by William of Walworth

[incident]

People who prefer to work with science and forecasting and meteorology and that** : this thread??

[Ed209]

Be serious. ANY weather forecast you can find this far out doesn't deserve to be described as Science. At this stage all you have is forecasting based on assumptions and guesswork. Predictions based on data a Week out are unreliable enough, let alone 10 weeks. It's no more scientifically valid than the ultimate truth that is NFRNFC.

Science my arse.

[incident]

I'm right though. What's more you know I'm right.

There is a reason that no credible weather experts make predictions for specific dates and locations this far out. Sure, they can predict that the summer as a whole will be wet/dry/whatever, or it'll be above/below average temperatures. As if we care about any of that.

But trying to nail down the only thing that actually matters - the rainfall of a few hundred acres on a particular weekend in a couple of months time? Nope, that's going beyond Science and well into guesswork. For what it's worth, I do work with people who deal with the Met Office on a daily basis - I suspect they'd say much the same. Despite it being their job to know what's coming, they don't even bother looking more than a week ahead.

[The_Amazing_Oblong]

I've seen hot and dry and very, very wet festivals and always had a good time. Living outside in the UK for 5 days means you have a pretty fair chance of seeing everything as the weather is so changeable. I can only remember one year when it rained the entire time from putting the tents up to taking them down and we still had a great time. Most years are just 'changeable' a bit of rain, a bit of sun, a bit of cloud.

Don't freak it with the weather, whatever is going to happen will happen. Better to concentrate on having a good time 'despite' the weather and if it turns out nice then all the better.

[Ed209]

I'm right though. What's more you know I'm right.

There is a reason that no credible weather experts make predictions for specific dates and locations this far out. Sure, they can predict that the summer as a whole will be wet/dry/whatever, or it'll be above/below average temperatures. As if we care about any of that.

But trying to nail down the only thing that actually matters - the rainfall of a few hundred acres on a particular weekend in a couple of months time? Nope, that's going beyond Science and well into guesswork. For what it's worth, I do work with people who deal with the Met Office on a daily basis - I suspect they'd say much the same. Despite it being their job to know what's coming, they don't even bother looking more than a week ahead.

[Peroni]

Original line was No Rain No Mud No Compromise.

I was the authior of this libne a few years ago -- thus, I am the ORIGINAL mumbo-jumbo spouter!

I still have the TShirt (generously donated by a kind efestivaller in 2008) and will wear it again WHEN this year's festweather is dry and sunny

[guypjfreak]

OK you could have a point ....

People who believe in weather gods or sky pixies or the Flying Spaghetti Monster or any gods ----------------> NFR NFC thread??

People who prefer to work with science and forecasting and meteorology and that** : this thread??

Yes? </please allow for a bit of pisstake here >

**(but ALSO hope for a nice sunny Glastonbury, just people who are able to face negative facts n forecasts as well as positive ones, reality as well as fantasy .... )

[howlin_pete]

Rules of looking up long range weather forecasts; ignore anything that suggests it might rain, accept any positive news as fact

[fur_q]

OK you could have a point ....

People who believe in weather gods or sky pixies or the Flying Spaghetti Monster or any gods ----------------> NFR NFC thread??

People who prefer to work with science and forecasting and meteorology and that** : this thread??

Yes? </please allow for a bit of pisstake here >

**(but ALSO hope for a nice sunny Glastonbury, just people who are able to face negative facts n forecasts as well as positive ones, reality as well as fantasy .... )

[guypjfreak]

Agreed, the last few years its been difficult to keep up with the serious posts in the weather threads, so would be good to have this one kept on topic

[William of Walworth]

Is that you on the tort guide? In a lock up? I noticed the line was similar to NFR NFC, and thought it must be related!

[William of Walworth]

Just to say I fully get what Incident and Ed are getting at. Actual forecasts at this long range are a mugs game and not reliable. That's exactly why I'm holding off asking JACKONE (of netweather) to start his Glastonbury Forecast tracker until mid May at earliest.

But broad trends are possible to start making educated guesses at now, and both the experts and knowledgeable amateurs on other sites are starting to make them. Inevitably, they're differing in their predictions, and being properly cautious. Still, there's already starting to be tentative thoughts from several that this summer won't be nearly as wet/unsettled/Atlantic dominated as last.

Still, wait and see and all that. Quite agree.

Edited April 17, 2013 by William of Walworth