Weather thread 2010

[Langdale Wolf]

...quote from most reason post on the netweather model output discussion...

.."Great runs tonight, the potential for finally getting a good old stormy setup on the GFS and UKMO and the potential for a heatwave which would be nice for all the lucky Glastonbury people on the ECM, looking nice all round really, im guessing this weekend won't be as cool as forecast anyway."....

i'm going to leave it with that tonight..

[Cooter]

HEATWAVE......????!?

No. I can't believe that at all. Too much to expect.

That word made me moist though.

Edited June 16, 2010 by Cooter

[Langdale Wolf]

Did you mean to post this?

[Gnomicide]

Heatwave you say?

I believe the weather gods have spoken.

[Cooter]

Did you mean to post this?

[scorp]

Ich bin ein Berliner

[elbongo]

HEATWAVE......????!?

No. I can't believe that at all. Too much to expect.

That word made me moist though.

[glastofreak]

the battle is not yet won wait till next week. Things can still slide.

[elbongo]

the battle is not yet won wait till next week. Things can still slide.

[Langdale Wolf]

LW keep the troops in line man. I can't do it this year. I'm not about enough. This bloody weather thread does me in every f***in' year. I can't cope man.

[mouth]

bugger. i'm shitting it now. i thought there was a rule about posting the H word.

[meatyparson]

I wish I knew what you were talking about with this gfs 12 hz stuff...

please be dry n warm

[William of Walworth]

I'm going with the 'D' word ...

('Dusty')??

I have very little net access daytime, being an actuakl real employed worker for the first time in 18 months these days.

But the one link I managed to see today, no doubt already posted, that made me happiest was the MetOffice one-- ie this (for a fate tempting reminder)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Jun 2010 to Wednesday 30 Jun 2010:

Most areas of the UK should remain largely dry throughout next week with some decent sunny periods at times. Northern and northwestern areas are likely to be cloudiest and are more likely to see occasional rain, although there will be plenty of dry and bright weather too. Although most other places will be mainly dry, isolated light showers may develop at times. Temperatures should be near normal throughout much of the period, and it should feel pleasantly warm in any prolonged periods of sunshine, but will feel cooler on the coasts. Indications are that there these mainly dry conditions will continue to the end of June, with temperatures remaining close to average for the time of year in most places.

Updated: 1201 on Wed 16 Jun 2010

Edited June 16, 2010 by William of Walworth

[asoldasglasto]

It will be dry - I have offered one of my children as a sacrifice to the weather Gods!

The others are available if required (Oh, and the wife too!)

(Not sure that the testicles that were being offered yesterday were enough on their own, so thought that I should do my bit to help the cause!)

[Dav0s]

so the 18z run is currently being updated on netweather, and i am trying to compare it to the 12z run.

bearing in mind my very limited interpretation of these charts, i can deduce the following...

on the (snail eating, baguette wielding) 12z run earlier, there was an area of low pressure which sat very close to the west of the UK, and this was what was giving us the poor weather. on the latest 18z run, this area of low pressure is much further west, and we have more high pressure over us. so im guessing, that this means a better (more german) result from the 18z.

i am not quite as good as interpreting the charts when there isnt a circle engulfing the UK, and from friday onwards, we just have lines of pressure across the south of the UK, however these lines have higher numbers than the 12z run, so i guess this is better?

so in summary, my very amateur interpretation is showing a much better wed/thurs than the earlier run predicted, and i think, a slightly better weekend aswell.

[strudders]

I'm going with the 'D' word ...

('Dusty')??

I have very little net access daytime, being an actuakl real employed worker for the first time in 18 months these days.

But the one link I managed to see today, no doubt already posted, that made me happiest was the MetOffice one-- ie this (for a fate tempting reminder)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html

weather Pron!!! BUT BEWARE OF UPDATES on that link, the Met updates that one every day circa any time between between midday and 1:30 pm .... ULP!

Still, very few over on netweather Model Output general chat seem inclined to disagree, on the currently High Pressure dominated prospects for next week.

In fact, of anyone, it's actually JACKONE who's the most (relatively) pessimistic. And even the cautious JACKster -- praise be to him for his great work -- is moving towards actual near-optimism territory overall ....

So who are we to disagree?

Oldsters : another 1994? MAYBE???

(ie not as hot as 1995, but still very pleasant)???

[bamber]

All the Ensembles for Saturday. Not a lot of agreement. Just rember that the festival ends a week Sunday which is way beyond the reliable time-frame for any of the models.

[rabid]

HEATWAVE......????!?

No. I can't believe that at all. Too much to expect.

That word made me moist though.

[4AssedMonkey]

Page 2 this close to the fest?

Nein. BEULE!

[gibbo13]

the 0400 run on netweather now has heavy r**n on the SAT, but at least that torrential word has gone.

away from computer all day today, so no doubt i will come back and we will be 125 pages plus...we will go from baguettes to frankfurters a few times and hopefully LW and the troops will stay strong and keep those damn frogs at arms length.

if things start to look worse, i am sure we can rely on devon hammer to find us something optimistic..

WE SHALL FIGHT ON THE BEACHES.............

[Aragorn]

GFS not looking nice today from th 00z run

the UKMO however is looking ok for Wednesday with a high pressure stretched over us - the UKMO is a more reliable model than the GFS particularly this far out.

Somerset ensembles not out yet for the 00z

[Aragorn]

00z ensebles out for Somerset, not overly good I am afraid - many of the different data runs going for lower pressure around the festival

00z ECMWF rolling out.....the plot thickens

[neilt]

Things might be looking a bit ropey, but keep the faith!

[TheNewUnion]

I'm guessing that many of the weather sites (e.g The Weather Outlook, Accuweather etc) just update based on the models described above. Hence many are showing "R" where previously they were showing fine/dry??

I'm still looking for a forecast I like, then I'll stick with that one! Onwards and upwards, The Jackone index is at 40%, the lowest for a while and that's good. I'm happy and hopeful.

[tHomBleached]

Looking good to me

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Glastonbury-UKXX1641

There's no need for anyone to fret. Download took one for the team, Glasto will be arrid, 2003-esque.