Weather thread 2010

[gibbo13]

the 12z GFS operational run was out on its own for some of that run so I wouldn't pay too much attention to it

[Gnomicide]

Torrential.

I'm not coming back to this thread until someone has a word with the weather gods.

[Wivenswold]

This is wot i dont get? how can three runs be similar and generally....well german, and then the next one comes along wiv onions round its neck, stinking of garlic and wearing a f**kin beret!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited June 16, 2010 by Wivenswold

[TokiDoki]

Jackone didn't really mention it but you can see from the ensembles (squiggles) he posted that the GFS 12z is a massive outlier, none of the other runs (out of 20 I think?) really seem to follow the wet scenario.

So i'd say ignore that run and all the automated output from it (metcheck/TWO) this evening.

[devonhammer]

When the GFS was good we were always warning that you couldn't trust GFS. Now it's bad there is no need to panic. The 12UTC ECM is good all the way to Saturday so far, so nothing to worry about. Worst possible case is:

but I'm sticking with:

[kloot]

When the GFS was good we were always warning that you couldn't trust GFS. Now it's bad there is no need to panic. The 12UTC ECM is good all the way to Saturday so far, so nothing to worry about. Worst possible case is:

but I'm sticking with:

[Langdale Wolf]

When the GFS was good we were always warning that you couldn't trust GFS. Now it's bad there is no need to panic. The 12UTC ECM is good all the way to Saturday so far, so nothing to worry about.

[Midnight Man]

Keep the faith! We're still WAY OFF! It's going to be sehr sehr heiß!

[gooner1990]

I'm going with this.........

http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2010/jun/16/glastonbury-2010-met-office

Again previously mentioned its a World Cup summer always a scorcher...and my mate Geoff has done 20 various festivals over the years (Reading, Download etc etc) always dry and sunny when he goes..and he's doing his first Glasto this yr...nailed on sun imo.

In fact I wonder what odds the bookies will give me on a rain free Glasto?

NRNC

Edited June 16, 2010 by gooner1990

[devonhammer]

Where do you get the ECM data from? I have no idea.

So you're saying that the ECM and GFS 12z data aren't similar?

[gibbo13]

ECM is from here.

Furthermore, this is the GFS ensemble precipitation for Somerset:

The green line is the dodgy GFS run, but look at the red line which is the average of all their sources. So even the GFS ensembles have a dry one.

[kloot]

nice one dude, mind at ease again (a bit)..for me the weather is more important than the headliners, of all the glastos i have been to, the best are by far the driest!!!!

[Langdale Wolf]

Rightio, JACKONE has added some more - HERE

Last paragraph:

ECM 12Hz This tends to fall more into line with GFS in terms of edging the High pressure away from the UK to the west this weekend, however it rebuilds next week to varying strengths and this should keep mostly dry and settled weather across Glastonbury for next week, although one or signs that it might turn a little more unsettled for the weekend.

A generally good summary this evening with 4 of the 5 outputs going for mostly settled conditions, with the GFS 12Hz being much worse. However on a down side, there isn't that much difference synoptically between the GFS 12Hz and the others. On his basis, I am taking a punt and deceasing the chance of a wet festival to 40%.

[gibbo13]

Rightio, JACKONE has added some more - HERE

Last paragraph:

So signs that the horrid GFS bastard thing might be up slack alley.

The bit in bold can surely only be good news, right?

Edited June 16, 2010 by gibbo13

[barkley87]

Vereinbart, wir bleiben dry..but dont erwähnen die Krieg

[gibbo13]

Ich bin sehr beeindruckt von deinen Deutschkenntnissen

Kein Regen, kein Schlamm, kein Kompromiss!

[barkley87]

Ja, und können halten die französische entfernt

Edited June 16, 2010 by barkley87

[Niblet]

Ich bin ein Berliner

[pehaw]

Rightio, JACKONE has added some more - HERE

Last paragraph:

So signs that the horrid GFS bastard thing might be up slack alley.

The bit in bold can surely only be good news, right?

[TheNewUnion]

Raise a glass to JackOne and the % decline

[danbailey80]

...quote from most reason post on the netweather model output discussion...

.."Great runs tonight, the potential for finally getting a good old stormy setup on the GFS and UKMO and the potential for a heatwave which would be nice for all the lucky Glastonbury people on the ECM, looking nice all round really, im guessing this weekend won't be as cool as forecast anyway."....

i'm going to leave it with that tonight..

[clockworkpurple]

Jesus this thread is worse than crack. Actually, it's better than crack cos the only cleavage you're likely to see with crack is Amy Winehouse's...

[ICGenie]

So in short (and in the interests of balance):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzQ-e0BiOS8

[4AssedMonkey]

So in short (and in the interests of balance):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzQ-e0BiOS8

[Buddhafish]

...quote from most reason post on the netweather model output discussion...

.."Great runs tonight, the potential for finally getting a good old stormy setup on the GFS and UKMO and the potential for a heatwave which would be nice for all the lucky Glastonbury people on the ECM, looking nice all round really, im guessing this weekend won't be as cool as forecast anyway."....

i'm going to leave it with that tonight..