UK Politics

[steviewevie]

 

[fraybentos1]

2 hours ago, pink_triangle said:

It’s a load of little things that make a difference to their life. Israel/Palestine discussion is big on twitter with people interested in politics, but the wider public are not going to care what a labour prospective mp who they have never heard of, thinks of an issue that has no impact on their life. 
 

It ties in withe the Labour anti-semitism issue which they've tried hard to stop. I am not saying one thing like that is going to swing an election but that plus other things made it a bad week for Labour.

 

2 hours ago, pink_triangle said:

Far more people care about their kids being able to afford a house 

I've never seen much evidence voters care about affordable housing? Quite the opposite in fact. I'd argue most voters would put rising house prices above just about anything else in terms of their priorities. 

[steviewevie]

I mean, we all think we know what bothers people, when in the end different things bother different people. So the Gaza thing will be the number one issue for some people, the climate change thing will be the number one issue for other people, immigrants/asylum seekers will be the number one issue for other people, and for others it will be the fact that they're struggling to make ends meet or can't get a CAMHS appointment for their kid or are on a forever NHS waiting list or horrible kids are hanging round their neighbourhood being scary or there's too many potholes or the weather is sh*t or Starmer is dull or Sunak isn't white. All will play a part in how people vote. The economy and state of public services and politician behaviour will likely be the biggest factor, but things like climate change or Israel/Gaza can't just be ignored as they will be a factor too.

[steviewevie]

 

[Ozanne]

There is data out there that shows what are the most important factors to voters and the Middle East doesn’t tend to be very high on those lists. Polling regularly shows the economy/health as 2 of the main factors.

The conflict in Gaza just won’t really be a big factor at the next election for many at all.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

There is data out there that shows what are the most important factors to voters and the Middle East doesn’t tend to be very high on those lists. Polling regularly shows the economy/health as 2 of the main factors.

The conflict in Gaza just won’t really be a big factor at the next election for many at all.

but it will be in some seats...like Rochdale...

[Ozanne]

Just now, steviewevie said:

but it will be in some seats...like Rochdale...

How do you know that?

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

There is data out there that shows what are the most important factors to voters and the Middle East doesn’t tend to be very high on those lists. Polling regularly shows the economy/health as 2 of the main factors.

The conflict in Gaza just won’t really be a big factor at the next election for many at all.

How high do you think social care ranked on those lists before 2017? Not very high I reckon.

Or over the years, the EU ranked extremely low on people’s priorities but then it still dominated politics and elections for nearly a decade!

 

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

How do you know that?

Because of what the Labour candidate did obviously 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

How do you know that?

just a hunch...Ali and Galloway and stuff I've heard and...

What on earth is going on in the Rochdale byelection? – podcast | News | The Guardian

[Ozanne]

Ipsos polled the top 5 issues in their last VI survey. 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

just a hunch...Ali and Galloway and stuff I've heard and...

What on earth is going on in the Rochdale byelection? – podcast | News | The Guardian

If that’s the case then you’d expect Galloway to win which I have doubts over. Even still that’s just 1 seat out of 600 odd and whilst it might be important to some it’s really not going to influence that many people’s votes in the GE. 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Ipsos polled the top 5 issues in their last VI survey. 

Surely different things impact areas differently … so in some areas this will be more of a thing . Rochdale presumably being one where it’s an issue 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

Surely different things impact areas differently … so in some areas this will be more of a thing . Rochdale presumably being one where it’s an issue 

Yes there’ll be issues locally which will be of concern to more people in that area but at a general election when people think more about the country the conflict won’t be much of a factor for many. 

[Crazyfool01]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yes there’ll be issues locally which will be of concern to more people in that area but at a general election when people think more about the country the conflict won’t be much of a factor for many. 

itll be lower down sure ... but Labour infighting which the press will have a field day over ( and obviously are already)  will impact if its still ongoing ) ..... 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

itll be lower down sure ... but Labour infighting which the press will have a field day over ( and obviously are already)  will impact if its still ongoing ) ..... 

The media will always do that but so far every time they’ve tried to claim there’s a crises in Labour the polls haven’t moved much at all. If the current government are as unpopular as they are then something’s like this don’t have much cut through (not saying nothing will cut through).

[pink_triangle]

1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

It ties in withe the Labour anti-semitism issue which they've tried hard to stop. I am not saying one thing like that is going to swing an election but that plus other things made it a bad week for Labour.

 

I've never seen much evidence voters care about affordable housing? Quite the opposite in fact. I'd argue most voters would put rising house prices above just about anything else in terms of their priorities. 

I think people exaggerate the challenge Starmer has in terms of anti semitism. He can point to the evidence in terms of what he has done. He also has the marked contrast with his predecessor which works to his advantage. I don’t get the impression he has acolytes like Blair, Brown, Corbyn or Boris, but think he would take action against them if it became necessary. There will be times like with Ali where he could have acted quicker, but that will happen regularly as PM and you won’t always get it right.

[Neil]

37 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Polling regularly shows the economy/health as 2 of the main factors.

which is why mays dementia tax hit hard: its both of those

[pink_triangle]

58 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I mean, we all think we know what bothers people, when in the end different things bother different people. So the Gaza thing will be the number one issue for some people, the climate change thing will be the number one issue for other people, immigrants/asylum seekers will be the number one issue for other people, and for others it will be the fact that they're struggling to make ends meet or can't get a CAMHS appointment for their kid or are on a forever NHS waiting list or horrible kids are hanging round their neighbourhood being scary or there's too many potholes or the weather is sh*t or Starmer is dull or Sunak isn't white. All will play a part in how people vote. The economy and state of public services and politician behaviour will likely be the biggest factor, but things like climate change or Israel/Gaza can't just be ignored as they will be a factor too.

At the same time the NHS is going to impact on more people lives than Middle East politics, so it will be a priority to more. 
 

I have no doubt Labour will go into the election really focusing on the issues that matter to the majority. To some that will be considered focus group politics and lacking vision , to me the priority is getting into power and making a difference.

[mattiloy]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Yes there’ll be issues locally which will be of concern to more people in that area but at a general election when people think more about the country the conflict won’t be much of a factor for many. 

The problem isnt Gaza, or the 28bil green sh*t. The problem is that rather than rely on policy, Starmer has tried to make this a presidential election that hinges on one thing - trust- the idea of Labour as safe pair of hands, strong, united, sensible, if a bit dull, and the tories by contrast as a skipfire.

The problem is that Labour arent this trustworthy sensible outfit at all, and recent events have shown that behind the thin facade, the leadership are instead every inch as capricious, neurotic, incompetent, and weak as the tories.

I still think Labour will form the next govt, but there is no question that things like this damage them. Hopefully it all makes a hung parliament more likely anyway. 

[pink_triangle]

16 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

itll be lower down sure ... but Labour infighting which the press will have a field day over ( and obviously are already)  will impact if its still ongoing ) ..... 

Is there much labour infighting? I personally don’t see it. The parliamentary party seem really focussed on winning the election, even the Corbyn supporter MPs are pretty quiet 

[Neil]

1 minute ago, pink_triangle said:

Is there much labour infighting? I personally don’t see it. The parliamentary party seem really focussed on winning the election, even the Corbyn supporter MPs are pretty quiet 

when the leadership are deselecting candidates it looks like infighting.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, pink_triangle said:

Is there much labour infighting? I personally don’t see it. The parliamentary party seem really focussed on winning the election, even the Corbyn supporter MPs are pretty quiet 

will see .... 

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Is there much labour infighting? I personally don’t see it. The parliamentary party seem really focussed on winning the election, even the Corbyn supporter MPs are pretty quiet 

There hasn’t been much infighting at all, in fact there’s been no criticism of Labour suspending these candidates internally within the party or much else at all.  

Edited February 14 by Ozanne

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, Neil said:

when the leadership are deselecting candidates it looks like infighting.

I disagree, it looks like internal disciplinary matters.