The Weather Thread 2023

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

Just now, p.pete said:

I'm struggling too - what does 3bft mean?  I think it means pretty much no rain on Wednesday, including overnight Tuesday, with several different acronym thingys roughly agreeing...

When people post these charts I literally just look for orange/red colours and the more of that I see, I'm happy! Other than that...over my head.

Sheffield Steve ones are always disgusting blue and green and it gives me anxiety.

[DTichborne]

Here's my helpful contribution to the thread. 

I have only not gotten tickets three times since 1994. This year is the third of those times. 

On the other two where I didn't get tickets, the weather was lovely. The mudbaths only occur when I make it there. 

You're welcome. 

[Jose Pose]

2 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

The data shows high inter-annual variability - the trend emerges at the decadal scale.

 

Well yes, that is my point about the data the person I was replying to has been using. 

[tazbang]

ECM looks to be pluming over the festival weekend. Wonder if GFS is underplaying the temperatures.

[dansy]

23 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

youll be fine with that although id take the coat as its not much weight for decent reward 

Probably smart. As long as I don't need wellies I'm very happy. 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

5 minutes ago, DTichborne said:

Here's my helpful contribution to the thread. 

I have only not gotten tickets three times since 1994. This year is the third of those times. 

On the other two where I didn't get tickets, the weather was lovely. The mudbaths only occur when I make it there. 

You're welcome. 

Perfect, that settles it then. End of thread. 

Hope you manage to find something awesome to take your mind off not being there 😊

Edited June 15, 2023 by Bike_Like_A_Mum

[kerplunk]

2 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

Well yes, that is my point about the data the person I was replying to has been using. 

High inter-annual variability isn't what I'm getting from your posts

[Alvoram]

9 minutes ago, tazbang said:

ECM looks to be pluming over the festival weekend. Wonder if GFS is underplaying the temperatures.

To be fair, latest GFS is not too dissimilar. 

[dansy]

The two things that would keep me happy: no need for wellies, and not as hot as Boomtown last year (constant sunshine, around 36 degrees every day - especially as there's a lot less forest/shade at Glasto compared to Boomtown and I had access to showers). For those of you who struggle with heat, the best thing to cool yourself down is constant misting. One of these bad boys: 

[Bike_Like_A_Mum]

3 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

To be fair, latest GFS is not too dissimilar. 

That's a thing of beauty!

[danbailey80]

Dear all. Below is the added update to my rather OTT post from yesterday. I was frustrated, and although my tongue was in my cheek, I  admit I was rather more offensive than is usual for me. 

(edit update: I've since apologised personally to someone who may have felt attacked by this. He didn't and assures me it's all good. I wish his all the best for the festival and if I was going - I'd buy him a cold beer)

Edited June 15, 2023 by danbailey80

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, danbailey80 said:

Dear all. Below is the added update to my rather OTT post from yesterday. I was frustrated, and although my tongue was in my cheek, I  admit I was rather more offensive than is usual for me). 

(edit update: I've since apologised personally to someone who may have felt attacked by this. He didn't and assures me it's all good. I wish his all the best for the festival and if I was going - I'd buy him a cold beer)

nice 1 dan 🙂 

[briddj]

Check out the BBC's vid, it shows rainfall accumulation from now until Tuesday.

It is saying the Glasto site will get only 10mm, falling on Sunday. Won't even touch the sides. 

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/1669323323908448262?s=2

 

[DeanoL]

44 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

6%? That's some wild physics. Temperature doesn't start at zero deg. C!

(I know, it's loads lower and reality the difference will actually be tiny but it makes the point)

[Jose Pose]

20 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

High inter-annual variability isn't what I'm getting from your posts

My posts are simply saying that data that spans from 1991 (three decades ago) to 2020, isn’t going to be representative of how often we can expect to see temps of 25+ from 2023 into 2034 and so on. Do you disagree?

[DeanoL]

30 minutes ago, Jose Pose said:

I think it’s fair to say the most recent years are more relevant than the less recent years when all data shows average temps have been consistently rising for decades 😂.

Of course I’m sure you think 12 countries in Europe hitting record temps last year including the UK is just pure coincidence. 

No of course not. Europe is a mostly connected land mass so if one country hits a record temperature there's a good chance other countries will hit a record temperature!

But you're saying that like it proves some different point. All it proves is that Europe had a heatwave. The 12 different countries aren't all independent measurements. If Belgium is hot, France will probably be hot too. Indeed, what about the 38 other countries in Europe? It's weirder that they *didn't* hit record temperatures. I guess that's just a coincidence too?

The temperatures have been consistently rising, yes, but they've also been rising consistently - the rate of increase has stayed steady since around the 70s - if you take *that* rate of increase, and figure what the expected temperature would have been for UK summers the past couple of years, we've been above that expected figure. 

Here's the thing: there's two options here, and I'm really genuinely curious as to which you think, at which point I can put this to bed.

Either:

a) you think the current science on global warming is wrong, that we're not seeing a consistent rise in temperature since the 70s, but actually starting in 2016 there's been a huge upward spike, and the colder than average summers of 2021 and 2017 were just anomalies, and UK average temperature is trending much higher than we think, and that the weather last year is the new normal, and global warming is accelerating rapidly That's a fine opinion to have by the way. Not shared by many scientists (but is by some). If that's what you think, sure.

b) you think it still varies year by year, and we have warm summers and cold summers, and we've been seeing a consistent rate of increase in temperature since the 70s.  In which case I really don't get what we're arguing about.

[MYGEO]

Guys its just a festival weather forum - relax

[rlandy95]

21 minutes ago, dansy said:

the best thing to cool yourself down is constant misting. One of these bad boys: 

Absolutely briliant idea - I'm heading to the retail park this weekend to get the last bits, def going to IKEA to grab one of these. Last year I just soaked my cap in water and that helped for about 0.1 seconds and then I was just wearing a hot wet cap 😞

[Duggyfresh44]

27 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

To be fair, latest GFS is not too dissimilar. 

Told ya

[stopwn1981]

[dansy]

5 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

Absolutely briliant idea - I'm heading to the retail park this weekend to get the last bits, def going to IKEA to grab one of these. Last year I just soaked my cap in water and that helped for about 0.1 seconds and then I was just wearing a hot wet cap 😞

Wet cap also a good technique but fully wet clothes is even better. But again I had showers, so I would just step inside a cold shower with my clothes on and then would enjoy the sweet relief for about 10 minutes until my clothes dried again. 

Only thing better than an ikea mister is water guns! People love to ask you to shoot them to cool down. 

[moheetoes]

6 minutes ago, rlandy95 said:

Absolutely briliant idea - I'm heading to the retail park this weekend to get the last bits, def going to IKEA to grab one of these. Last year I just soaked my cap in water and that helped for about 0.1 seconds and then I was just wearing a hot wet cap 😞

I take a couple of those roll up /flexible plastic drinks pouches with a sport cap on that you can get in summer for about £1 (sorry don’t know how to post a pic)with a clip on and use the sprayer part off one of these instead of the screw on sports cap - easier to ferry around than a rigid sprayer to fill at water points - works great as a mister 

[Jacko45]

Is it all trending too well?

Are we all getting too comfortable, will later runs drop a bombshell?

[fightoffyour]

15 minutes ago, MYGEO said:

Guys its just a festival weather forum - relax

A festival weather forum isn't a matter of life and death. It's far more important than that.

[Jose Pose]

22 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

No of course not. Europe is a mostly connected land mass so if one country hits a record temperature there's a good chance other countries will hit a record temperature!

But you're saying that like it proves some different point. All it proves is that Europe had a heatwave. The 12 different countries aren't all independent measurements. If Belgium is hot, France will probably be hot too. Indeed, what about the 38 other countries in Europe? It's weirder that they *didn't* hit record temperatures. I guess that's just a coincidence too?

The temperatures have been consistently rising, yes, but they've also been rising consistently - the rate of increase has stayed steady since around the 70s - if you take *that* rate of increase, and figure what the expected temperature would have been for UK summers the past couple of years, we've been above that expected figure. 

Here's the thing: there's two options here, and I'm really genuinely curious as to which you think, at which point I can put this to bed.

Either:

a) you think the current science on global warming is wrong, that we're not seeing a consistent rise in temperature since the 70s, but actually starting in 2016 there's been a huge upward spike, and the colder than average summers of 2021 and 2017 were just anomalies, and UK average temperature is trending much higher than we think, and that the weather last year is the new normal, and global warming is accelerating rapidly That's a fine opinion to have by the way. Not shared by many scientists (but is by some). If that's what you think, sure.

b) you think it still varies year by year, and we have warm summers and cold summers, and we've been seeing a consistent rate of increase in temperature since the 70s.  In which case I really don't get what we're arguing about.

You’re massively overcomplicating it man, you weighed in with something about average temperatures being 18, with seemingly no understanding of what average actually means, then some stats about how often we’ve gone above 25 with data going back three decades which undermined your initial point that we don’t see 25 that often because your own stats prove there is (based on historical out of date data) a 50% chance that we’ll see temps above 25 at any given Glastonbury.

You proved my own point for me, which is that during a 5 day festival during BST, it is not uncommon to experience 25 degrees or more, your it own stats prove that. Do you disagree with that?

Beyond that I have no idea what point you’re trying to make?

Edited June 15, 2023 by Jose Pose