The Dirty Independence Question

[DomDom1984]

Interestingly, the people of Scotland have voted Labour and got the Tories before. And given who's in charge of the Labour party at the minute, it actually could very well happen again.

[gary1979666]

Interestingly, the people of Scotland have voted Labour and got the Tories before. And given who's in charge of the Labour party at the minute, it actually could very well happen again.

As it pain me to say, however bad Milliband is, I think if Labour support holds in Scotland, then the Tories have no chance.

[eFestivals]

From an article in the Times about Ashcroft's latest poll. He looked at the 25 seat that either voted YES or were very tight - 24 would go to the SNP.

he also only polled 25 people in each seat - which doesn't count as anything statistically meaningful.

That's not saying it's wrong, but it's not a good enough piece of work to treat as right.

[eFestivals]

Interestingly, the people of Scotland have voted Labour and got the Tories before. And given who's in charge of the Labour party at the minute, it actually could very well happen again.

oh, right .... so now it's nothing about "they're both the same", like it was a minute ago from you, before I pointed out that it's nothing like the same (and the SNP are worse for Scotland than both tories or labour)?

[DomDom1984]

I said they weren't a good alternative. Not that they're all the same. There's a huge difference between those two statements.

[eFestivals]

There's a difference between "all the same" and a good alternative. A massive difference.

and that difference in your mind is that "an extra £5B of cuts (that's 8% extra cuts beyond what Labour will do) is so meaningless that you can forget about it"?

On a Scottish level, the Labour party are a total joke.

there is nothing called Scotland in a UK general election.

The problem with this whole "vote the SNP, get Tories" line is that it is quite blatantly pathetic scaremongering.

like people were with the oil price before the indyref?

People are worried about the SNP getting some sort of influence on a national level.

People in Scotland should be much more worried about the SNP getting their desired "full fiscal autonomy" - that's another 8% of cuts beyond the tory version!

Vote Labour, or vote Tory for 8% greater cuts, or vote SNP for 16% extra cuts.

If you looked at each party's policies, you'd know the truth.

But policies aren't good for many in Scotland are they? Ignorant "belief" out-trumps the statements of each party every time.

Edited February 4, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I said they weren't a good alternative. Not that they're all the same. There's a huge difference between those two statements.

If Labour are not a good alternative, care to explain how are the tories or the SNP a better alternative, given that BOTH the tories and the SNP have stated policies of bigger cuts than Labour for Scotland?

</and then comes only silence, or denial of SNP stated policies>

[kaosmark2]

I'm not exactly fussed if voting SNP leads to a Tory government.

Well, this is the answer we wanted clarified.

"Does having a SNP MP matter more than not having the Tories in power?"

In this case, it's a yes.

[gary1979666]

he also only polled 25 people in each seat - which doesn't count as anything statistically meaningful.

That's not saying it's wrong, but it's not a good enough piece of work to treat as right.

Really? Looks like he polled 1000 in each. SO holds a bit more weight.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Scottish-constituency-poll-report-February-20153.pdf

[eFestivals]

Really? Looks like he polled 1000 in each. SO holds a bit more weight.

1000 in total, I'd thought? Across all seats?

</goes off to read the link>

[eFestivals]

my apologies - it was 1000 in each seats, and so it should be taken as credible after all.

The Scots want a tory govt.

Alex will absolutely love them for that, but what none are realising is that they'll still lose the next indyref.

[MichaelsBeard]

If Labour and Tories are 'both the same', why do the SNP say they'd agree to a coalition with one but not the other?

[eFestivals]

If Labour and Tories are 'both the same', why do the SNP say they'd agree to a coalition with one but not the other?

If Labour and the tories are the same, why is there a £30Bn pa year difference in spending plans?

If the SNP are better than both Labour and the tories, why do so few Scots know the SNP come with plans for deeper cuts than both of them?

[LJS]

If Labour are not a good alternative, care to explain how are the tories or the SNP a better alternative, given that BOTH the tories and the NEIL HAS STATED THAT THE SNP have stated policies of bigger cuts than Labour for Scotland?

</and then comes only silence, or denial of SNP stated policies>

Fixed it for you Neil.

[LJS]

If Labour and the tories are the same, why is there a £30Bn pa year difference in spending plans?

If the SNP are better than both Labour and the tories, why do so few Scots know the SNP come with plans for deeper cuts than both of them?

Because they don't

[LJS]

I've given it to you here many times already.

If you still can't see how reduced Labour seats can equal a tory govt, the issue is your grasp of the UK political system.

I can see how it COULD happen. It just doesn't seems pretty unlikely the way things are looking at the moment. I've asked you before & you have ducked the question - who are is going to prop up a minority Tory government?

The problem with your argument is that the only two parties likely to have the numbers to do so are the SNP & Labour.

The SNP have categorically ruled out any deal with the Tories - they would be crazier than you to do otherwise. A Con Lab deal has been touted but it rather blows a hole in the vote SNP get a Tory government line, doesn't it?

Vote Labour get , er, um, oops, ... Tory.

Nice

[LJS]

Well, this is the answer we wanted clarified.

"Does having a SNP MP matter more than not having the Tories in power?"

In this case, it's a yes.

Ok Kaos, you want to have a go at outlining a likely election outcome where a large SNP vote in Scotland leads to a workable Tory government?

[LJS]

Con 279

Lab 254

SNP 48 (per the poll yesterday)

LD 43

UKIP 4

Green 2

Others 20

Not impossible - would be another ConDem coalition. I know you can argue the ups and downs of likelihoods, but it's not a massive stretch if there's a few Milligaffes along the way.

43 lib dems?

really?

you think so?

Don't see anyone predicting anything like that

& even if they got that number, do they really want to go back into coalition with the Tories?

Tell you what, I'll take my chances

[LJS]

If separtists are going to keep pretending there's a magic money tree, I'm going to keep asking them to show it to me.

The proof that there's no magic money tree is in those numbers that Alex has provided, that you refuse to look at or think about - even when I constantly provide them to you at your request.

I notice that with your first post here since I did (again) provide them at your request, you've decided to ignore them. Why is that?

yep, the self-punching was outlined in an explicit statement by your glorious leader just about a year ago, and like everything he's said too many Scots take it literally and forget to think about what they're actually choosing to do.

I generally don't reply to your magic money tree (is this where the squirrels live?) nonsense because as you should be well aware I have never ever claimed that Scotland would automatically be more prosperous under independence and indeed have accepted that some of the yes campaign's financial projections were a tad on the optimistic side. However I have challenged your doom laden projections for the inevitable financial Armageddon that awaited iSco.

I am glad to note that you finally came up with some figures after many challenges from me & many bogus claims form you that you had already done so. Apologies for the delay, but I am as always happy to reply to your claims...

Here's what the Scottish Govt themsaelves say....

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2014/03/7888

Quote

Oh look, Scotland is in a worse position than the UK.

Ok so 5.9% plays 5.8%

Bearing in mind I have never claimed Scotland would have been better off & acknowledged we might even have been a wee bit worse off, I'll take that as evidence in favour of my position.

I

and for the horse that won't drink, perhaps this'll help?

(click on the image to see a bigger version).

It's a graph built directly from the GERS numbers for 1980 to 2011.

Oh look, for the most recent 4 years on your graph Scotland has a smaller deficit than rUK

so, Neil, it is now plain to see why you were so reluctant to post the figures I asked for so often because they simply don't support your argument.

[kaosmark2]

Ok Kaos, you want to have a go at outlining a likely election outcome where a large SNP vote in Scotland leads to a workable Tory government?

Tories are the largest party over labour by about 5 seats. Lib dems retain 35-40 mps. Lib dems prop up tories to a majority. Simple

[LJS]

Tories are the largest party over labour by about 5 seats. Lib dems retain 35-40 mps. Lib dems prop up tories to a majority. Simple

... but unlikely

with all the other parties in the equation & the SNP likey to be at least as big as the Libdems the maths don't add up.

Edited February 4, 2015 by LJS

[LJS]

perhaps this will help to explain why Scottish Labour are imploding

This is from the SLAB website & I can only assume it is supposed to persuade people to vote for them.

https://vine.co/v/OttWDWALT9W

Edited February 4, 2015 by LJS

[LJS]

Scottish Labour's campaign now appears to be run by Neil

Margaret Curran MP @Margaret_Curran

· 9h9 hours ago

Difficult poll today. I'm focussing on sending the Tories packing. Glasgow can't afford another five years of them. #VoteSNPgetTories

#voteLabourgetwhatexactly?

Edited February 4, 2015 by LJS

[LJS]

http://nationalcollective.com/2015/02/04/peripheral-visions/

Here is, in my totally biased view, a thoroughly excellent analysis of where Scotland stands now.

[kaosmark2]

... but unlikely

with all the other parties in the equation & the SNP likey to be at least as big as the Libdems the maths don't add up.

My prediction for the non-main 2 parties:

Lib dems: 35

SNP: 20

Racist cultists: 5

Plaid: 4

Green: 2

The maths is likely to come down to which of labour or tories can get enough to form a workable government with the traitors. More labour seats increases the likelihood it isn't tories in power. Any coalition with SNP would be political suicide. If ukip get more they might prop up the tories, but it is foolish to think it won't come down to an agreement between the 3 traditionally biggest parties