UK Politics

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

You would be amazed how newspaper headlines do influence people.

I know many who quote these headlines as fact and will form their views based on them and in time simply believe any headline their chosen paper writes regardless of how false it is.

Then you have a lower opinion of the ability of people to think for themselves than I do. I think Thatcher came to power because people (particularly housewives) could relate to what she was saying.  When Labour were banging on about GDP and potential trade deals etc, she brought out a basket of everyday food items and listed how much they had gone up. It struck a cord.
 

She was still an awful women though.

[Neil]

2 hours ago, LJS said:

Just out of curiosity, Neil, was that your view at the time? Or have you revised it with the "benefit" of hindsight?

Not sure I was aware of the global aspects back then. but I could see how strikes were effecting public support for nationalised industries.and I could see there was little point producing steel without customers for it. or shipyards without customers for ships.

 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

You would be amazed how newspaper headlines do influence people.

I know many who quote these headlines as fact and will form their views based on them and in time simply believe any headline their chosen paper writes regardless of how false it is.

Most people read the headlines but not the detail. Quite a few people here often reveal themselves as doing just that.

[Neil]

9 hours ago, Ommadawn said:

But people still voted Conservative in their droves.

Mind you, the opposition wasn't up to much.

Michael foot gave it to the Tories just like Corbyn supporters did

[lost]

I think New labour were inevitable following the Berlin wall coming down and the collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe. We had as much of a consensus we were going to get on the economic stuff and Labour were simply alligning themselves to other social democrat parties in the EU.

[Neil]

18 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Labour membership falls by 23,000 the more they become just like the Tories.

Did you read the article or just the headline? That's bigger membership than when Blair left office and there's no relationship between membership and electoral support (which is good news for the greens).

[kaosmark2]

1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

New seat prediction poll out and based on the prediction for where I live I shall ignore it totally.

It predicts a Labour win where I am and Labour have been a poor third for a long time. It is Lib Dem or Tory who will win it.

Anyway, here is the poll which I personally think is very wrong.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling

The modelling for MRP polls basically extrapolates national data with census data - ie translates how national votes go back into is it urban/rural, what groups do people identify as in an area (religion, ethnicity, etc), and tracks those.

They tend to be a little better on seat count, but sketchy for any specific seat.

Although I certainly hope they're right about Rees-Mogg's seat!

[lazyred]

5 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

New seat prediction poll out and based on the prediction for where I live I shall ignore it totally.

It predicts a Labour win where I am and Labour have been a poor third for a long time. It is Lib Dem or Tory who will win it.

Anyway, here is the poll which I personally think is very wrong.

https://www.bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-polling

It makes it difficult to pick an anti Tory tactical vote. The MRP poll is saying your area has a majority of the kind of people who support Labour. It doesn't account for past tactical voting which has benefitted the Lib Dems. It will be interesting to see how the local elections go in your area. I'm glad I live in a tory/labour marginal because I would struggle to vote Lib Dem.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

We don't have local elections here but when we did 2 years ago Labour did not even put up candidates.

The seat flips between Lib Dem and Tory and always has - Labour have never won and third is their best result last time with less than 10% of the vote.

I would never vote for either Lib Dem or Tory regardless so my vote is meaningless under FPTP.

Although a poll indicates labour could win it 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Which rather takes us full circle to my first post where I said that poll is rubbish because they say Labour could win - Labour have zero chance here. None.
Best result ever gave then 17.1% of the vote and they came third.

But the poll says different. Maybe they know more than you. We have had some mad local election results recently,and there has been a lot of news of labour taking seats they normally don't...

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

15k polled in the entire UK does  not mean they know more than me who lives here and knows hundreds of locals.

Even in 1997 Labour came 3rd.

By election results have nothing to do with GE results either.

Still, if Labour win here I will donate £10 to a charity of your choice.

The Conservative Party.

[steviewevie]

2 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

As they are not a registered charity that does not work. Sorry

Name a UK Registered Charity and if Labour win where I live they get £10

Society for abandoned tories.

[Neil]

2 hours ago, Nobody Interesting said:

As they are not a registered charity that does not work. Sorry

political parties have a lot of similar regulation to charities', nearer to a charity than a private school. i think.

Edited March 31, 2024 by Neil

[Neil]

just another day in bristol.

[clarkete]

On 3/31/2024 at 12:13 AM, Neil said:

your guy has gone to help prop-up the new Murdoch, no one agrees with nick.

Ha ha my guy, thankfully that's as accurate as half the revisionist nonsense you spout about the benefits the country reaped from Thatcher.

[Neil]

6 hours ago, clarkete said:

Ha ha my guy, thankfully that's as accurate as half the revisionist nonsense you spout about the benefits the country reaped from Thatcher.

I didn't say benefits from thatcher I merely noted that the country wasn't in the same deep sh*t all the time she was in office.

[steviewevie]

 

[clarkete]

4 hours ago, Neil said:

I didn't say benefits from thatcher I merely noted that the country wasn't in the same deep sh*t all the time she was in office.

Well except for the record unemployment, the recession, slashing NHS funding thereby causing increased queues and closed wards, the increased crime rates, the poor state of many state schools due to underfunding, the selling of council houses but idiotically without any commitment to create further social housing, 

BBC News - The Thatcher years in statistics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

https://blogs.ubc.ca/imandywu/working-for-patients-thatcherisms-disguised-attack-on-the-nhs/

[Neil]

37 minutes ago, clarkete said:

Well except for the record unemployment, the recession, slashing NHS funding thereby causing increased queues and closed wards, the increased crime rates, the poor state of many state schools due to underfunding, the selling of council houses but idiotically without any commitment to create further social housing, 

BBC News - The Thatcher years in statistics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22070491

https://blogs.ubc.ca/imandywu/working-for-patients-thatcherisms-disguised-attack-on-the-nhs/

things were better by the time she left office than they'd been at points when in office, probably due to north sea oil revenues. unemployment reduced, etc.

Edited April 1, 2024 by Neil

[lost]

U.K and U.S elections in November. Tories trying to piggy back on Biden pushing the business cycle out or helping Starmer so he doesn't have to call Trump to congratulate him?

 

[clarkete]

2 hours ago, Neil said:

things were better by the time she left office than they'd been at points when in office, probably due to north sea oil revenues. unemployment reduced, etc.

Which things specifically?

[Neil]

1 hour ago, lost said:

U.K and U.S elections in November. Tories trying to piggy back on Biden pushing the business cycle out or helping Starmer so he doesn't have to call Trump to congratulate him?

 

only the true believer ant-starmers will give a f**k about starmer having to congratulate  trump!

they will love it, cos it'll give them a new angle. which they'll rince to death.

 

[Neil]

1 minute ago, clarkete said:

Which things specifically?

the ability to get a job - [country-wide unemployment fell].

things weren't the same desperate and grim they had been before and during thatcher.(at least, in my experience).felt like there was a bit more hope.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, lost said:

U.K and U.S elections in November. Tories trying to piggy back on Biden pushing the business cycle out or helping Starmer so he doesn't have to call Trump to congratulate him?

 

Or just leaving it as long as possible in hope that polls narrow some more. Dare they go for January?

[clarkete]

14 minutes ago, Neil said:

the ability to get a job - [country-wide unemployment fell].

things weren't the same desperate and grim they had been before and during thatcher.(at least, in my experience).felt like there was a bit more hope.

As @Nobody Interesting has shared, the link I included earlier proves that wasn't the case.  It lowered from the record level she pushed it to, but was still  higher than before she came to power.