The Weather Thread 2024

[pigital]

3 minutes ago, Essex_George said:

Can't be bothered to read back a few pages, are we back to scorchio now for the weekend? 

Read back the last few pages and enjoy the rollercoaster

[ibilly99]

9 minutes ago, Essex_George said:

Can't be bothered to read back a few pages, are we back to scorchio now for the weekend? 

in essence yes - make sure you have factor 50 and a wide brimmed hat.

[Essex_George]

2 minutes ago, ibilly99 said:

in essence yes - make sure you have factor 50 and a wide brimmed hat.

Assume the hat is just to keep the sun off my face?

[Crazyfool01]

Christ don’t mention the h word …  

[ibilly99]

20 minutes ago, Essex_George said:

Assume the hat is just to keep the sun off my face?

Yup think Mexican sombrero type rig - you will need it - and keep hydtrated the rain gods have gone on strike for the duration the bastards.

[Sheffield Steve]

UKMO have downgraded the temps a bit for Wednesday. 
27c now which is plenty warm enough. 
and 25c on Thursday…

 

[Euphoricape]

Just now, Sheffield Steve said:

UKMO have downgraded the temps a bit for Wednesday. 
27c now which is plenty warm enough. 
and 25c on Thursday…

 

Both days still dry?

[ibilly99]

So is it Warmplay now rather than Wet Wet Wet  and is Chris Martin to be spared ?

[Sheffield Steve]

10 minutes ago, Euphoricape said:

Both days still dry?

Just the chance of a shower on both days…

[ibilly99]

2 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

Just the chance of a shower on both days…

A cooling dust killer in new money.

[ibilly99]

Feck it's turning the other way.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/jun/22/heat-health-alert-england

[Sheffield Steve]

ECM again comes up with a completely different solution than the GFS. 

 

Like the UKMO it has the suggestion of some showers on the Wednesday and Thursday…

 

But Friday could be very interesting as the cool Atlantic air meets the warm continental air and a classic line of storms breaks out. Impossible to say exactly where this will be at this stage but if it happens over the site we could be in for a deluge…

 

 

It then diverges completely from the GFS which introduces a ridge of high pressure.  ECM brings a significant low pressure just to the west of us which would give cool

weather with showers or longer spells of rain.  Next weekend is still very much up in the air. 
 

[Ayrshire Chris]

Met office still holding firm

[rlandy95]

Stick stick stick!!! (Wednesday through to Monday)

 

 

[CanWeRest]

None of the forecasts I've seen look worrying.

[ibilly99]

2 minutes ago, CanWeRest said:

None of the forecasts I've seen look worrying.

We should be worried about that.

 

 

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

So basically - Weds / Thurs looking safe now bar showers. Next worry is how far in the low comes at the weekend; as Steve says, ECM has it pushing in and causing a front of storms. Much better than 24 hours ago but plenty of rollercoaster left. 

[briddj]

18Z 🕺

[rlandy95]

6 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

So basically - Weds / Thurs looking safe now bar showers. Next worry is how far in the low comes at the weekend; as Steve says, ECM has it pushing in and causing a front of storms. Much better than 24 hours ago but plenty of rollercoaster left. 

 

Think its worth providing some context for the ECMWF 12Z. This guy on Netweather explains it far better than myself https://community.netweather.tv/topic/100278-model-output-discussion-summer-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5087995

 

But essentially the 12Z Op run was part of cluster 4 for that time period with only 16% of members agreeing on that outcome. So a relatively low potential. We're idealy aiming for cluster 3 which will have a brief unsettled spell with high pressure building back in for the weekend and a low pressure system south west of us driving some serious heat up towards the UK.

[Flighty Zoo]

So it’s looking good?

[jarviscocker]

This run so far… 😬

[rlandy95]

4 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

This run so far… 😬

 

Think Wed & Thurs are looking pretty good at this point with the other models + MetOffice. I'm not putting much stock into the GFS for those days, more interested in Fri, Sat, Sun.

[briddj]

16 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

This run so far… 😬

 

Erm, not really. So far ..

[jarviscocker]

9 minutes ago, briddj said:

 

Erm, not really. So far ..

I’m happy for this one to stick at the bottom of the previous page 😅

[briddj]

18Z has rain again on the Wednesday, and added on the Sunday.

 

Generally it's a downgrade as a low pushes down from the north to suppress temperatures, but there's no rain of note for most of the festival. 

 

The run is fine but it's nothing remotely spectacular.

Edited June 22, 2024 by briddj