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The Weather Thread 2024


airwaves

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ECM again comes up with a completely different solution than the GFS. 

 

Like the UKMO it has the suggestion of some showers on the Wednesday and Thursday…


IMG_1962.jpeg.fdd5a0d94929dacef4e073dc16f56a81.jpeg
 

But Friday could be very interesting as the cool Atlantic air meets the warm continental air and a classic line of storms breaks out. Impossible to say exactly where this will be at this stage but if it happens over the site we could be in for a deluge…

 

IMG_1964.jpeg.db01dcaaa9347834142d063f8bbc87cd.jpeg
 

It then diverges completely from the GFS which introduces a ridge of high pressure.  ECM brings a significant low pressure just to the west of us which would give cool

weather with showers or longer spells of rain.  Next weekend is still very much up in the air. 
 

IMG_1963.jpeg.c017ca380aceb6bbe0bc17e49d4d0b7b.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

So basically - Weds / Thurs looking safe now bar showers. Next worry is how far in the low comes at the weekend; as Steve says, ECM has it pushing in and causing a front of storms. Much better than 24 hours ago but plenty of rollercoaster left. 

 

Think its worth providing some context for the ECMWF 12Z. This guy on Netweather explains it far better than myself https://community.netweather.tv/topic/100278-model-output-discussion-summer-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5087995

 

But essentially the 12Z Op run was part of cluster 4 for that time period with only 16% of members agreeing on that outcome. So a relatively low potential. We're idealy aiming for cluster 3 which will have a brief unsettled spell with high pressure building back in for the weekend and a low pressure system south west of us driving some serious heat up towards the UK.

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4 minutes ago, jarviscocker said:

This run so far… 😬

 

Think Wed & Thurs are looking pretty good at this point with the other models + MetOffice. I'm not putting much stock into the GFS for those days, more interested in Fri, Sat, Sun.

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18Z has rain again on the Wednesday, and added on the Sunday.

 

Generally it's a downgrade as a low pushes down from the north to suppress temperatures, but there's no rain of note for most of the festival. 

 

The run is fine but it's nothing remotely spectacular.

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