U.S. Presidential Election

[FloopFiller]

I know this has been a common thread pretty much since he took office in 2016, but by the way Trump is declining mentally lately I’d be surprised if he’s even at all in a fit state to take office come November. Biden might flub the odd line or even have his moments or senility, but Trump is just plain incoherent a lot of the time these days and is notably cracking under the mounting pressure. What a wild 9 months America is in for.

[Crazyfool01]

9 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

I know this has been a common thread pretty much since he took office in 2016, but by the way Trump is declining mentally lately I’d be surprised if he’s even at all in a fit state to take office come November. Biden might flub the odd line or even have his moments or senility, but Trump is just plain incoherent a lot of the time these days and is notably cracking under the mounting pressure. What a wild 9 months America is in for.

Just madness people are even thinking of voting for this .. Melania also seemingly not wanting to know him unsurprisingly either . We think the uk is bad at times , it’s nothing on that 

[charlierc]

I certainly thought he might get it harder to get the nomination after the 2022 mid-terms' expected red-wave just didn't happen. And yet here we are.

Hell I remember Ron DeSantis being hyped as the new superstar of American conservatism after he crushed the Democrat opponent in the Florida governor election, yet here he is announcing today that he's ending his campaign even before Super Tuesday.

[FloopFiller]

1 hour ago, charlierc said:

I certainly thought he might get it harder to get the nomination after the 2022 mid-terms' expected red-wave just didn't happen. And yet here we are.

Hell I remember Ron DeSantis being hyped as the new superstar of American conservatism after he crushed the Democrat opponent in the Florida governor election, yet here he is announcing today that he's ending his campaign even before Super Tuesday.

Lol yep DeSantis proved to be an absolute damp squib - all of Trump’s extreme views with zero of the personality of charisma. Honestly thought he was gonna be the front runner a few months ago when Trump f**ked the midterms, but the moment he got put on the world stage he choked because he’s a completely unlikable awkward ghoul. I’m sure he’ll try again in 2028, but it seems like his political career is probably over.

And of course he’s fallen directly in line behind Trump. My god I can’t wait for Republicans to get destroyed in the election (yes I remain that confident).

Edited January 21 by FloopFiller

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

Trump wins New Hampshire. He will be the Republican candidate, and feels inevitable that he will win the presidency. Then when he's all fascisty people will go oh...didn't realise he would be that bad.

[charlierc]

I was amused by a Guardian article saying "Trump turns into sinister playground bully" - implying he was never anything else?

[charlierc]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Trump wins New Hampshire. He will be the Republican candidate, and feels inevitable that he will win the presidency. Then when he's all fascisty people will go oh...didn't realise he would be that bad.

Eh? It's been two primaries and while I agree he'll be the Republican nominee, there's still 10 months of this f**king thing to go. Plenty of time for him to blow it.

[steviewevie]

35 minutes ago, charlierc said:

Eh? It's been two primaries and while I agree he'll be the Republican nominee, there's still 10 months of this f**king thing to go. Plenty of time for him to blow it.

feels inevitable to me the pessimist, not saying it is inevitable, hopefully I am wrong...but like Trump first time round, like brexit, like Bojo as PM, just feels inevitable. Trump is always the story, he is the news, and bad news is good news for Trump, look how his popularity and funding went up following all the criminal investigations, he literally could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose voters, he is amazing, he is the messiah who will save America. Etc. 

Biden is unpopular, people think he's done a bad job on the economy, he comes across old and frail but won't stand aside for someone younger because he thinks only he can beat Trump. Hope he's right. Yes maybe something will happen, Trump is also getting on and doesn't seem all there sometimes and this might become more obvious during a campaign. Maybe a conviction or two will persuade enough undecideds or moderate Republicans or soft Trump supporters to vote Biden or no one. We'll see, but...just feels inevitable.

[FloopFiller]

I’ll keep repeating this until it happens in November - the same people who voted for Biden/against Trump in 2020 will do the same this year. The amount of people who’ve switched from democrat to republican in those four years is negligible, despite what the media will keep telling you to drum up hype/fear/interest, and if anything, Trump will’ve lost votes due to a number of reasons - older conservatives dying, covid doing its thing, and people generally being unhappy with his conduct since losing in 2020. You hear a lot about people being unhappy with how Biden has done things, but I guarantee that goes tenfold for Trump. 

Biden wins by an even bigger margin this year, you can quote me on that. 

[steviewevie]

56 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

I’ll keep repeating this until it happens in November - the same people who voted for Biden/against Trump in 2020 will do the same this year. The amount of people who’ve switched from democrat to republican in those four years is negligible, despite what the media will keep telling you to drum up hype/fear/interest, and if anything, Trump will’ve lost votes due to a number of reasons - older conservatives dying, covid doing its thing, and people generally being unhappy with his conduct since losing in 2020. You hear a lot about people being unhappy with how Biden has done things, but I guarantee that goes tenfold for Trump. 

Biden wins by an even bigger margin this year, you can quote me on that. 

or many who voted for Biden last time will be disappointed with his presidency and won't bother voting.

[lost]

I've been seeing as many "cost of living" posts from the U.S as I've seen from the U.K. It's optimistic to think that sort of stuff has damaged the Tories but won't damage Biden. The people in power always get the blame.

[FloopFiller]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

or many who voted for Biden last time will be disappointed with his presidency and won't bother voting.

Ehh again, maybe there will be a few people who take this route, but I think it’ll largely be negligible. The idea that people dislike Biden’s presidency but are happy to let Trump walk back in to the White House is true for so few people I feel. 

Maybe I’m giving people too much credit here but I can’t imagine a lot of people who aren’t already staunch Republicans are keen for the clearly desperate and growingly psychotic Trump to be back at the helm of the country, especially with all his talk of going in to dictator mode from day one. 

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Ehh again, maybe there will be a few people who take this route, but I think it’ll largely be negligible. The idea that people dislike Biden’s presidency but are happy to let Trump walk back in to the White House is true for so few people I feel. 

Maybe I’m giving people too much credit here but I can’t imagine a lot of people who aren’t already staunch Republicans are keen for the clearly desperate and growingly psychotic Trump to be back at the helm of the country, especially with all his talk of going in to dictator mode from day one. 

ok...hopefully you're right and maybe I should stop catastrophising (but I'm not alone!).

[FloopFiller]

44 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ok...hopefully you're right and maybe I should stop catastrophising (but I'm not alone!).

I get it, it’s completely terrifying to think that that man could end up back in power (and that so many people actually want it to happen) but even moreso than 2020 I’m confident that it’s not gonna happen, and I’ve seen a few people high up in the Republican ranks vocalising the same thing - that he can’t beat Biden after all that’s happened and that running him as their candidate is a complete dead end.

I imagine it’ll still come to the wire a little on the night, or at least appear that way, but here’s hoping for an absolutely embarrassing defeat for him.

[Crazyfool01]

7 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

I get it, it’s completely terrifying to think that that man could end up back in power (and that so many people actually want it to happen) but even moreso than 2020 I’m confident that it’s not gonna happen, and I’ve seen a few people high up in the Republican ranks vocalising the same thing - that he can’t beat Biden after all that’s happened and that running him as their candidate is a complete dead end.

I imagine it’ll still come to the wire a little on the night, or at least appear that way, but here’s hoping for an absolutely embarrassing defeat for him.

I really hope so .... big year for politics on both sides of the ocean ... despair or hope for a better future .... 

[charlierc]

4 hours ago, lost said:

I've been seeing as many "cost of living" posts from the U.S as I've seen from the U.K. It's optimistic to think that sort of stuff has damaged the Tories but won't damage Biden. The people in power always get the blame.

We've seen the power of how cost of living stuff works tbf with Argentina embracing Javier Milei and a totally unworkable plan of populist economics purely because of the pain handed out by a 100%+ inflation rate, or seeing that right-leaning parties in France and Germany are seeing swells in support ahead of the EU elections in June. So I'm aware it has potential to destabilise things, and agree that whomever's in charge is going to get it in the neck, regardless of whether I want the person in charge there or removed. It is what it is.

The 2022 mid-terms were an oddity in fairness given that was when inflation was its worst and where Biden still had a few failures on his CV in mind, but where the sheer anger at the repeal of Roe v Wade a few months earlier lead to the expected "red wave" in Congress akin to 2010's shift right and 2018's shift left not materialising.

[charlierc]

9 hours ago, steviewevie said:

feels inevitable to me the pessimist, not saying it is inevitable, hopefully I am wrong...but like Trump first time round, like brexit, like Bojo as PM, just feels inevitable. Trump is always the story, he is the news, and bad news is good news for Trump, look how his popularity and funding went up following all the criminal investigations, he literally could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose voters, he is amazing, he is the messiah who will save America. Etc. 

Biden is unpopular, people think he's done a bad job on the economy, he comes across old and frail but won't stand aside for someone younger because he thinks only he can beat Trump. Hope he's right. Yes maybe something will happen, Trump is also getting on and doesn't seem all there sometimes and this might become more obvious during a campaign. Maybe a conviction or two will persuade enough undecideds or moderate Republicans or soft Trump supporters to vote Biden or no one. We'll see, but...just feels inevitable.

I would say right now that I think Trump is just ahead, but not by an insurmountable margin. Maybe it's also because of confidence - I thought Hillary Clinton would win in 2016, that Trump would in 2020 even despite f**king up covid (though I will say I lost faith in that prediction a few weeks before polling day), and that the 2024 race would see both parties have new candidates for President, so my track record is not great.

I'm not saying it's impossible - the danger is absolutely present, not least thanks to the inexplicable failure to disqualify Trump for inciting January 6 2021. I agree that Biden has a more difficult path to re-election than he did to winning in 2020, but it's certainly not as desperate as it looks for, say, Rishi Sunak or Germany's Olaf Scholz, who both look in deep sh*t. I think it's dangerous to take it on Trump's self-promoted word that he is inevitable and that he's a guaranteed winner, and that there's still 10 months to go for him to sabotage his campaign, which given it is who he is cannot be ruled out.

It is easy to be bemused by it all, mind. Trump looks/sounds increasingly senile and Biden would be 86 at the end of this upcoming term, so I'm aware both parties aren't exactly bringing something fresh to the table. Indeed, this is why I think Biden would be more in trouble if Nikki Haley won the nomination, even if she now clearly won't.

[steviewevie]

[lost]

15 hours ago, charlierc said:

We've seen the power of how cost of living stuff works tbf with Argentina embracing Javier Milei and a totally unworkable plan of populist economics purely because of the pain handed out by a 100%+ inflation rate, or seeing that right-leaning parties in France and Germany are seeing swells in support ahead of the EU elections in June. So I'm aware it has potential to destabilise things, and agree that whomever's in charge is going to get it in the neck, regardless of whether I want the person in charge there or removed. It is what it is.

Yes its quite difficult to gage and I havent been since covid so I'm only going on what I read.

I think the farming industry is subsidized over there so cheap food has always been a massive thing. I remember going in the 1990's and having $2.99 all you can eat breakfasts and wondering how the hell they did it. A good measure of a country is McDonalds and I saw the dollar saver burgers which existed as recently as as 2018 are now $2.89. Also some of the price rises in vegas look mental. A meal for two at a non-posh chain resturant now coming in over $100.

[kalifire]

So who do we think Trump will pick for his VP running mate?

I'm sure I read somewhere that he'd like a woman, but I can't find a source for that. It would make sense, though. Trump is a known a turn-off for suburban women voters, and he's cynical enough to pick a woman just to try and appeal to that voting block.

I can see him picking Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, a traditional enough establishment republican with republican royalty in her family, but also a solid defender of Trump's batshit nonsense.

I've also wondered whether he'd pick Kari Lake. She's crazy, but very media-savvy and ready for the camera in an instant. If you don't pay attention to what she's actually saying, she comes across very well. But then there's the slight issue of what she's actually saying.

I don't know much about Elsie Stefanik other than she's another member of the Trump cult, but he seems taken with her.

Either way, his pick may be more consequential than the obsequious husk that was Pence, there to placate the evangelicals and keep his f**king mouth shut.

Edited January 25 by kalifire

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, kalifire said:

So who do we think Trump will pick for his VP running mate?

I'm sure I read somewhere that he'd like a woman, but I can't find a source for that. It would make sense, though. Trump is a known a turn-off for suburban women voters, and he's cynical enough to pick a woman just to try and appeal to that voting block.

I can see him picking Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, a traditional enough establishment republican with republican royalty in her family, but also a solid defender of Trump's batshit nonsense.

I've also wondered whether he'd pick Kari Lake. She's crazy, but very media-savvy and ready for the camera in an instant. If you don't pay attention to what she's actually saying, she comes across very well. But then there's the slight issue of what she's actually saying.

I don't know much about Elsie Stefanik other than she's another member of the Trump cult, but he seems taken with her.

Either way, his pick may be more consequential than the obsequious husk that was Pence, there to placate the evangelicals and keep his f**king mouth shut.

Elon Musk.

[FloopFiller]

1 hour ago, kalifire said:

So who do we think Trump will pick for his VP running mate?

I'm sure I read somewhere that he'd like a woman, but I can't find a source for that. It would make sense, though. Trump is a known a turn-off for suburban women voters, and he's cynical enough to pick a woman just to try and appeal to that voting block.

I can see him picking Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, a traditional enough establishment republican with republican royalty in her family, but also a solid defender of Trump's batshit nonsense.

I've also wondered whether he'd pick Kari Lake. She's crazy, but very media-savvy and ready for the camera in an instant. If you don't pay attention to what she's actually saying, she comes across very well. But then there's the slight issue of what she's actually saying.

I don't know much about Elsie Stefanik other than she's another member of the Trump cult, but he seems taken with her.

Either way, his pick may be more consequential than the obsequious husk that was Pence, there to placate the evangelicals and keep his f**king mouth shut.

Hard one to call. Traditionally it would’ve been one of his competitors, and Vivek certainly seems to be gunning for it with all of his gushing and boot licking, but I can’t imagine Trump going for somebody who has so much personality and will steal the spotlight (as well as the obvious issue of his skin colour) and I think DeSantis and Haley have bigger ambitions in the future than to be Trump’s lackey; probably both go for it again in ‘28. 

Kari Lake is running for the Senate which I think disqualifies her, so I think it’s most likely gonna be one of Elise Stefanik or Kristi Noem is he’s going for a woman. It’ll basically end up being somebody slavishly loyal to him who will stand by him through thick and thin -and is too stupid to see they’re hitching themselves to a sinking ship, and there really are a lot of people who fall in to that bracket so he’s got a wide net to choose from.