U.S. Presidential Election

[clarkete]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

6 is Nate. 1 is 538. Some reason he still has 538 in his twitter name. 

 

What do you mean by v tweet?

 

Anyway, Nate Silver one is the outlier, and he now is linked with polymarket who are linked to this Thiel guy who is a bit of a libertarian type, but don't know how stinky dodge it all is. 

 

Good point about his nick, thanks. 

 

Have you seen anything from him that refers to anything like 62/38? 

 

I haven't, all far more modest (maybe 55/45) but I'm far too cheap to take out a paid sub

Edited September 7, 2024 by clarkete

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, clarkete said:

 

Good point about his nick, thanks. 

 

Have you seen anything from him that refers to anything like 62/38? 

 

I haven't, all far more modest (maybe 55/45) but I'm far too cheap to take out a paid sub

All we have is screenshot posted.. it's all a bit opaque...but basically he is weighing polls differently to others and then throwing in a bunch of assumptions.

 

[steviewevie]

 

[Kurosagi]

Here you go, some Sunday afternoon reading for you. It's Freedman's analysis of where the US election is right now.

 

It's about 3000 words so too big to post the text, but I'll put it up as a pdf and hopefully it'll show up for people.

 

Here's a link to his substack, well worth subscribing to if you get on with his analysis:

 

https://samf.substack.com/

 

State of Play 2024-09-08.pdf

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

 

[Kurosagi]

"Moreover, if Trump wins it’s fairly likely the Republicans will also win the Senate and quite possibly the House too, albeit by small margins. There is not just a risk of another term but that, for the next two years at least, he could have a lot more power than he did last time."

 

And what would Trump do with such power...discuss.

 

All Hail Emperor Trump?

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

"Moreover, if Trump wins it’s fairly likely the Republicans will also win the Senate and quite possibly the House too, albeit by small margins. There is not just a risk of another term but that, for the next two years at least, he could have a lot more power than he did last time."

 

And what would Trump do with such power...discuss.

 

make America great again?

[Kurosagi]

Yes, but how is the question I guess.

[steviewevie]

40 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Yes, but how is the question I guess.

A mix of isolationism, Project 2025 and Handmaid's Tale.

[steviewevie]

and some of this...

 

[charlierc]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

If the list in that second list of swing state polls is accurate in combination with the first Tweet, I think that would mean a Harris win in the electoral college despite losing popular vote.

 

Which we can assume Trump would take about as well as the inverse in 2016 given he spent the whole of his first few months whinging he lost the popular vote.

 

The Dems could use something to regain momentum imo. But it still appears to be in the coin-toss range as to who wins in 2 months, and I assume if you live in America will mean a relentless 2 months of being bombarded with ads for the damn thing.

Edited September 8, 2024 by charlierc

[Kurosagi]

5 hours ago, steviewevie said:

A mix of isolationism, Project 2025 and Handmaid's Tale.

 

Has a whiff of civil war to it. Hope not.

[FloopFiller]

Pennsylvania is increasingly looking like it’s gonna be the big deciding swing state when it all comes down to it. 

 

It’s a shame that there’s basically nothing Trump can do in the debate outside of literally shitting himself or outright dying on stage that will really change anything for him whereas Kamala is gonna get picked apart. Really hope the Dems have got some kind of ace up their sleeve to get under his skin. I’m sure he’s being trained to keep his cool against any attacks, but it’s also mush brained Trump so composure isn’t his strong suit. 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

The mistakes of 2019 could cost Harris the election (natesilver.net)

[charlierc]

5 hours ago, FloopFiller said:

Pennsylvania is increasingly looking like it’s gonna be the big deciding swing state when it all comes down to it. 

 

It’s a shame that there’s basically nothing Trump can do in the debate outside of literally shitting himself or outright dying on stage that will really change anything for him whereas Kamala is gonna get picked apart. Really hope the Dems have got some kind of ace up their sleeve to get under his skin. I’m sure he’s being trained to keep his cool against any attacks, but it’s also mush brained Trump so composure isn’t his strong suit. 

Seems to be integral yes. Can imagine if you live in Pennsylvania you're going to be bombarded with political ads for the next two weeks.

 

It is still fairly bizarre to be in such a place tbf - the guy that lost the 2020 election (and is now admitting he lost in interviews), who Republicans blamed for a failed Red Wave in the 2022 midterms and who has kinda ran a bit of a sh*t campaign so far with incoherent policies, and yet he's still standing. But then we've established there's a lot of Americans who seems oddly forgiving of him and his tendencies. 

[steviewevie]

If they lose PA and so the presidency then people will blame the choice of Walz over Shapiro for VP.

[steviewevie]

 

[FloopFiller]

It’s an interesting thought that a lot of people are already familiar with Trump and so are fairly comfortable with his level of insanity whereas Kamala is still unknown even after four years of being VP so her being president is entering new ground.
 

Republicans whole thing of labelling her as an extreme communist is f**king ridiculous, but I’m sure that kind of messaging works on a lot of people which may have some undecideds a bit worried or unsure.

 

Hope she’s got a lot more interviews, Q&As, town halls etc lined up after the debate as she does seem to be getting a bit of flack for avoiding any kind of questioning right now apart from that one interview she’s done. Her policy page was put up on her website today so great time for her to address it all with some face time. 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

It’s an interesting thought that a lot of people are already familiar with Trump and so are fairly comfortable with his level of insanity whereas Kamala is still unknown even after four years of being VP so her being president is entering new ground.
 

Republicans whole thing of labelling her as an extreme communist is f**king ridiculous, but I’m sure that kind of messaging works on a lot of people which may have some undecideds a bit worried or unsure.

 

Hope she’s got a lot more interviews, Q&As, town halls etc lined up after the debate as she does seem to be getting a bit of flack for avoiding any kind of questioning right now apart from that one interview she’s done. Her policy page was put up on her website today so great time for her to address it all with some face time. 

does she sell herself as Biden#2 or something new?

[LJS]

looks like Nate is (almost) on his own
 

 

 

[Neil]

On 9/6/2024 at 7:29 PM, steviewevie said:

as was always the case it's all about a few hundred thousand voters in a few states. That is what the battle is over. Harris could win the popular vote by a fair margin, but still lose the presidency.

I guess this Nate Silver has projected where this could end up by November, but as he said in the link posted by clarkete above there are so many unknowns that it could still go either way.

Going to be an intense few months.

its now all about how trump takes losing - again!

[FloopFiller]

10 hours ago, LJS said:

looks like Nate is (almost) on his own
 

 

 

Apparently Trump can sell his Truth Social/DJT stock in the next couple of weeks so be interesting to see if Nate’s polling changes some time after that once his boss and/or Trump have offloaded this sh*tty stock on to all the brain dead bag holders: