2021 chances

[Crazyfool01]

18 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

The tories don’t like events like Glastonbur

but they do like Cheltenham ....... and the vaccine plan for the vulnerable is for early next year so takes away a significant risk .....

[Matt42]

13 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

but they do like Cheltenham ....... and the vaccine plan for the vulnerable is for early next year so takes away a significant risk .....

I wouldn’t be surprised if Cheltenham went ahead in some kinda reduced capacity but glasto can’t go ahead at all.

What about Cheltenham without the crowds?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Cheltenham went ahead in some kinda reduced capacity but glasto can’t go ahead at all.

What about Cheltenham without the crowds?

That doesnt bring in millions to line the pockets 

[Matt42]

17 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

That doesnt bring in millions to line the pockets 

I get your point but I don’t think it’s quite right. Cheltenham and Glasto are two very different events. They will be viewed with different opinions by people making decisions. A reduced Cheltenham (which makes less money than usual- like pretty much any other event in the past 12 months) and no Glastonbury is something I can totally see happening.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

I get your point but I don’t think it’s quite right. Cheltenham and Glasto are two very different events. They will be viewed with different opinions by people making decisions. A reduced Cheltenham (which makes less money than usual- like pretty much any other event in the past 12 months) and no Glastonbury is something I can totally see happening.

Kind of ... but cheltenham has large crowds and could be considered more risky with crowds going in and out over the course of it and hospitality venues taking massive amounts of money .... I think numbers are similar they just wouldn't be sleeping under  canvas but instead going back to hotels . The distinction between one event with a large crowd and another will become muddied and other sporting events will be putting massive pressures on .... and smaller capacity sports events are already happening elsewhere .... Its just depends on this government getting some kind of act together ... im 55/45 its happening ...

[Lycra]

48 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

That doesnt bring in millions to line the pockets 

Cheltenham could definitely go ahead without crowds as it crowns the years' champions and generates revenue for horse racing through the betting etc. Glastonbury couldn't 😣

[Matt42]

14 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Cheltenham could definitely go ahead without crowds as it crowns the years' champions and generates revenue for horse racing through the betting etc. Glastonbury couldn't 😣

Virtual Cheltenham would probably cut running costs too

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, Lycra said:

Cheltenham could definitely go ahead without crowds as it crowns the years' champions and generates revenue for horse racing through the betting etc. Glastonbury couldn't 😣

But the money from the attendees goes directly into the pockets of the directors of the racecourse. 

They will want the maximum amount of people there. You forget that lockdown was delayed in March to enable Cheltenham to go ahead as normal.
 

Money is more important than public health for these guys 

[Wooderson]

8 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

I've seen the comments from the Vaccine Taskforce about not planning to vaccinate everyone, but that's hugely dependent on the properties of the vaccine, is based on things that are unknowable right now so I wouldn't put much stock in it.

A lot of vaccines don't work in the elderly nearly as well. So I think it's quite likely that even with an imperfect vaccine you'd want to minimise spread by vaccinating large numbers of the population even if herd immunity itself isn't possible. Of course we could get a great vaccine that does both but consensus seems to be this seems less likely in this first group.

If they do, then great! But I'm not sure they will. And a lot of Phase III trials aren't incorporating large numbers of elderly people. In most countries the elderly are locking themselves away too and your trials in those countries (Brazil, USA, South Africa common sites) would need significant numbers of vaccinated elderly patients to actually put themselves at risk of contracting the infection to compare with the control group. We might not have good data on this from Phase III, we could look at antibody responses from Phase II if available but it might not give clear answers. So again we'd need to wait.

Other events can be run at lower capacity and/or be better distanced. Very difficult to distance Glastonbury - how do you distance the Pyramid pit? Also rapid testing could be with us next summer but can't think it'd work well for a multi-day event where everyone stays on site and could be incubating the virus so could be negative on Wednesday but positive and contagious by Friday.

Ultimately I think the issue with a likely imperfect vaccine is that it'll create a situation that's unpredictable and where we'll be playing wait and see for maybe six months give or take. And Glastonbury (and other festivals and live music events, I'm just not sure Glastonbury gets a proper roster without live music in general recovering to a fair extent) needs more certainty which I'm not sure it'd get by March/April. It's not impossible if *everything* goes right, but I'd say less likely.

Super work from you mate. Would look forward to shouting you a few coldies at that blissful "back to normal" moment in the future.

[Matt42]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

But the money from the attendees goes directly into the pockets of the directors of the racecourse. 

They will want the maximum amount of people there. You forget that lockdown was delayed in March to enable Cheltenham to go ahead as normal.
 

Money is more important than public health for these guys 

Well there’s no expectation this time for Cheltenham to go ahead as normal. Most people are now expecting any event to go ahead in a COVID safe way.

The reason Cheltenham went ahead is because the event didn’t have enough to time to change its operation or prepare for COVID H&S procedures. They sold all the tickets and people were arriving. The only thing they could do is cancel it, and for the reasons above they didn’t want to.

For this edition people won’t clutch their pearls at the thought it might be held a bit differently. So I don’t see this logic at all.

Cheltenham this year happened in the stage where a lot of people thought the virus might just go away or miss us. Obviously the government knew more than they were letting on, but they weren’t at the stage of locking everything down yet.

[Dark Star]

Cheltenham could go ahead, if it came to it they can always add temporary stands on the inside of the track and provide facilities there to get the capacity up to something approaching normal and get the money flowing. Not something Glastonbury could do, short of having two festivals with half capacity on back to back weekends. Even then, it'd be an insanely tough thing to organise. 

[eFestivals]

21 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Cheltenham Racecourse is also owned by the Jockey Club who has Dildo Harding as a director. She will get what she wants with this government. 

I think she mostly will, yep, but Cheltenham might be a bit too early for her to get her wishes granted.

Dido's horsey doings combined with Hancock being funded by the Jockey Club probably isn't enough to swing Cheltenham.

[eFestivals]

16 hours ago, Avalon_Fields said:

Just a thought: is an added complication the potential for much reduced availability of bands, with tours so difficult to plan now and for the foreseeable, many will be waiting for more certain times to schedule in dates, and a fair number are already postponing to late 2021, which may mean a significant issue for summer festivals. I guess this will be particularly the case with overseas acts, impacting on the Pyramid, West Holts in particular. Is there a threat the quality/diversity of the festival may be so jeopardized and risks damaging the reputation meaning it holds off until 2022??

nope. Bands won't be a problem.

Just about every band in the world is queued up to tour next year if they can, whereas normally in any year only around half the bands are touring.

The problem those bands who are queued up tour will have - are already having - is availability of the halls they want to do shows in. The only place available to many of them will be festivals.

Edited October 11, 2020 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

20 hours ago, arcade fireman said:

I've seen the comments from the Vaccine Taskforce about not planning to vaccinate everyone, but that's hugely dependent on the properties of the vaccine, is based on things that are unknowable right now so I wouldn't put much stock in it.

A lot of vaccines don't work in the elderly nearly as well. So I think it's quite likely that even with an imperfect vaccine you'd want to minimise spread by vaccinating large numbers of the population even if herd immunity itself isn't possible. Of course we could get a great vaccine that does both but consensus seems to be this seems less likely in this first group.

If they do, then great! But I'm not sure they will. And a lot of Phase III trials aren't incorporating large numbers of elderly people. In most countries the elderly are locking themselves away too and your trials in those countries (Brazil, USA, South Africa common sites) would need significant numbers of vaccinated elderly patients to actually put themselves at risk of contracting the infection to compare with the control group. We might not have good data on this from Phase III, we could look at antibody responses from Phase II if available but it might not give clear answers. So again we'd need to wait.

Other events can be run at lower capacity and/or be better distanced. Very difficult to distance Glastonbury - how do you distance the Pyramid pit? Also rapid testing could be with us next summer but can't think it'd work well for a multi-day event where everyone stays on site and could be incubating the virus so could be negative on Wednesday but positive and contagious by Friday.

Ultimately I think the issue with a likely imperfect vaccine is that it'll create a situation that's unpredictable and where we'll be playing wait and see for maybe six months give or take. And Glastonbury (and other festivals and live music events, I'm just not sure Glastonbury gets a proper roster without live music in general recovering to a fair extent) needs more certainty which I'm not sure it'd get by March/April. It's not impossible if *everything* goes right, but I'd say less likely.

I'd say that's a take based purely on the medical side of things - but it's not purely the medical which is driving things even now. 

Hospital demand is the key factor in my take. The biggest guess within my take is that hospital demand won't be sky high in March, and will be somewhere that all parties feel reasonably comfortable with in order for things to open up.

As time goes by it gets harder and harder for restrictions to stick. While "no festivals" is something that could be enforced for 'organised' festivals, there's a balance to be struck against what people will be doing instead - where the wider economic benefits are limited, and where infection spread is likely to be (proportionally) greater.

 

[Lycra]

14 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

But the money from the attendees goes directly into the pockets of the directors of the racecourse. 

They will want the maximum amount of people there. You forget that lockdown was delayed in March to enable Cheltenham to go ahead as normal.
 

Money is more important than public health for these guys 

Not quite true. 

Cheltenham is owned by Jockey Club Racecourses. This is a function of the Jockey Club which was established by Royal Charter with all profits being reinvested in the horse racing industry.  

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Not quite true. 

Cheltenham is owned by Jockey Club Racecourses. This is a function of the Jockey Club which was established by Royal Charter with all profits being reinvested in the horse racing industry.  

And whose on the board of directors of the Jockey Club...

[Lycra]

3 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

And whose on the board of directors of the Jockey Club...

The fact Dido H is on the Jockey Club Board does not make it a conspiracy. There are rules for Board remuneration too. 

[Lycra]

2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

nope. Bands won't be a problem.

Just about every band in the world is queued up to tour next year if they can, whereas normally in any year only around half the bands are touring.

The problem those bands who are queued up tour will have - are already having - is availability of the halls they want to do shows in. The only place available to many of them will be festivals.

Whilst bands and entertainers of all genres will be desperate to return to some form of normality my concern is whether the world will be sufficiently back to what it previous was to allow that to happen by Glasto. Bands need to get together and practice and usually do a series of pre-festival gigs to remove the rust. It's a big guess at present to forecast whether the world will be open sufficiently next Spring for it to happen. Any vaccination programme takes time to impact infection numbers and I fear that social distancing may still be our most effective weapon come the crunch time for deciding if early summer festivals can go ahead.

[squirrelarmy]

34 minutes ago, Lycra said:

The fact Dido H is on the Jockey Club Board does not make it a conspiracy. There are rules for Board remuneration too. 

Aww how cute. You think this batch of Tories follow the rules. 

[Lycra]

2 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

Aww how cute. You think this batch of Tories follow the rules. 

Nothing cute about it. Differences and changes are not made by spreading falsehoods and creating a murk that is easily dismissed. Only truth will force change. Otherwise it's a descent into Trumpism.

[BlueDaze]

19 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Super work from you mate. Would look forward to shouting you a few coldies at that blissful "back to normal" moment in the future.

Woody, he is the scientific version of you.....

I would be happy to fetch and carry the beers just to be there... (the water carrier, so to speak..)

[Wooderson]

The scientific version of me. @BlueDaze thats a compliment whether you meant it or not mate. Much respect.

[hfuhruhurr]

I've a close relation who is a VP at a big pharma in the US. They have a weekly briefing by the scientists and they are talking "2nd quarter of next year" before any vaccine becomes available (not theirs, but any of them). They're making big decisions based on that timescale, so I'm inclined to go with that. In US speak, 2nd quarter is always the end of that qtr - so we're talking June.

[Lycra]

5 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

I've a close relation who is a VP at a big pharma in the US. They have a weekly briefing by the scientists and they are talking "2nd quarter of next year" before any vaccine becomes available (not theirs, but any of them). They're making big decisions based on that timescale, so I'm inclined to go with that. In US speak, 2nd quarter is always the end of that qtr - so we're talking June.

Underlines a nagging thought I have in the back of my head that the world is going take longer to recover than we all hope. There's not going to be a light bulb moment when it's all switched on. It will come back gradually. 

[blutarsky]

On 10/11/2020 at 1:44 PM, Lycra said:

Nothing cute about it. Differences and changes are not made by spreading falsehoods and creating a murk that is easily dismissed. Only truth will force change. Otherwise it's a descent into Trumpism.

Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or not, but if it’s not, where have you been for the last nine months? This administration doesn’t deal in truth. 

Falsehoods and murkiness are Tory bread and butter.