When will this shit end?

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

or more correctly, the lack of money.

Yes, thats the point I was trying to make 🙂 

Edited February 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[steviewevie]

42 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Looking at the US and at Sweden, yes they’ve done worse than comparable countries, but in terms of deaths, we’ve been as much of a disaster as either of those countries have while spending roughly 2/3 of the past year in lockdown (and the other 1/3 still being under relatively draconian restrictions)

 

I think there are two valid approaches to managing covid, you go full Australia/NZ/Asia with an early lockdown to eliminate the virus, then you return to domestic normality with the borders closed. This is preferable as you get normality relatively quickly AND the added benefit of avoiding large numbers of deaths. The issue with this approach is that you need to act very quickly and that ship has long since sailed for the UK.

 

The other approach is to leave virus control down to individual risk perception like the US and Sweden have. It’s a free market method in a way because people will still choose to stay at home if they feel under threat, but it’s much better for the economy and more importantly for civil liberties. It’s NEVER been illegal to visit a friend for dinner in Sweden, whereas if you look at Leicester, it’s been illegal to do so for 34 days shy of a year now (and that isn’t ending any time soon)

 

The UK has gone with a half-arsed strategy of lockdowns that have damaging effects on the economy and civil liberties while being too late to work effectively. At least in the states or Sweden they’ve had to put up with the same levels of mass death as we have but have been able to maintain normality throughout that. 

US and Sweden haven't maintained normality.

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

It's always been an evolving situation and 2021 was a transitional year, people got ahead of themselves - or those people maybe not paying attention to the situation closely enough.

But the issue is that the  goalposts are being moved. We were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse and to get our most vulnerable vaccinated. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down and that all of the population need to be vaccinated. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it, even with everyone vaccinated? 

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

US and Sweden haven't maintained normality.

Yeah, it's a common misconception really. I've got friends in both countries and it has been anything but normal. 

[MrBarry465]

Just now, zahidf said:

But the issue is that the  goalposts are being moved. We were sold this lockdown as a way to protect the NHS from collapse and to get our most vulnerable vaccinated. Now we're being told it's a way to get cases down and that all of the population need to be vaccinated. How long until that becomes getting cases to zero before we're allowed out of it, even with everyone vaccinated? 

Whats the point of opening up and then having cases skyrocket and we need to lockdown again? 

The whole point of a phased rollout and doint it in a considered way, is to avoid another lockdown - I really wish people would try to understand this. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[stuartbert two hats]

25 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

ZOE app suggesting cases have started to rise very slightly 

Some quite worrying daily rises in GM yesterday, it may be a blip, but it's not common to see such rises in so many boroughs at the same time:

Quote

The infection rate is slightly higher today in Salford, Trafford, Oldham and Stockport than it was yesterday - Monday - but this increase has not yet been reflected in a week-on-week trend.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-manchester-19852411

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Some quite worrying daily rises in GM yesterday, it may be a blip, but it's not common to see such rises in so many boroughs at the same time:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-manchester-19852411

WHats the case postivity? could be related to the increase in surge testing

[steviewevie]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Some quite worrying daily rises in GM yesterday, it may be a blip, but it's not common to see such rises in so many boroughs at the same time:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-manchester-19852411

I wonder what is causing it? Schools/workplaces? More infectious variants?

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Whats the point of opening up and then having cases skyrocket and we need to lockdown again? 

The whole point of a phased rollout and doint it in a considered way, is to avoid another lockdown - I really wish people would try to understand this. 

If the population is vaccinated and deaths/hospitalisations are down because of vaccination/young age of people catching it, who cares?

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, zahidf said:

WHats the case postivity? could be related to the increase in surge testing

I don't know, good point.  Although I don't think the surge testing has been in those boroughs.

Just now, steviewevie said:

I wonder what is causing it? Schools/workplaces? More infectious variants?

Again, I don't know, I'd love to.

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Matt is right far more often than this board gives him credit for.  California dreaming aside 😉

 

we should ask him what his current prediction is...

[Toilet Duck]

2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

The vocal fry guy who neatly explained mRNA vaccines is back to unpack how Novavax works:

Edit: I love his cheesy grins at the end!

P.S. @Toilet Duck the secret sauce from the tree bark that improves the immune response - would that same ingredient have any use in the other vaccines?

 

 

Howdy,

Apologies for the delay, we have our lab meeting on a Wednesday morning!

So, the "secret sauce" is what is known as an adjuvant, an extra ingredient used to trigger the innate immune system. The particular one that Novavax use is plant-based (saponin to be precise) and has been around for over 20 years. Traditionally we have used metal-based adjuvants, and while their safety is established, they do still have the potential for toxicity, so alternatives were looked at (and saponin is one of them!). Protein subunit and whole-killed vaccines generally only stimulate the adaptive immunity arm of our immune system (antibodies , B and T cells), so the adjuvant is added to boost our response and also trigger the innate immune system (things like the scavenger cells that gobble up infected cells, the complement system that punches holes in infected cells and other non-specific parts of our immune response). The description the guy in the video gives is a bit incorrect (the memory B and T cells are part of our adaptive immune system and are specific to the antigen contained within the vaccine), but there are cellular components of our immune response that are triggered by the adjuvant (such as those listed above and dendtricitc cells, natural killer cells and others). It's not entirely as simple as that as there is crosstalk between the innate and adaptive arms of our immune response, so while generally non-specific, the innate immune systems plays a key role in shaping the nature of our adaptive response. The nice thing about the genetic vaccines is that they trigger both an adaptive immune response (we make antibodies and T and B cells specific for the antigen) and they also stimulate the innate immune response (all the non-specific defences), so we don't need to add an adjuvant (and this reduces the possibility for toxicity). 

 

[MrBarry465]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If the population is vaccinated and deaths/hospitalisations are down because of vaccination/young age of people catching it, who cares?

Opening up the country when 40% of the population have been vaccinated and then the other 60% haven't - is idiotic at best. 

You've been looking at this way too black and white for months now mate, I've followed your posts and I kept telling you to just chill on the hopium levels. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[efcfanwirral]

 

1 hour ago, Mr.Tease said:

I agree, either they've got some nasty data they haven't shared, or they don't want to make the mistake they made pre-Christmas, or it's PR so they look better when they more than exceed expectations, or they are just listening to the scientists more- shame they're so untrustworthy that we even have to speculate their motives! 

This is my concern, that there's something in these variants that they're sitting on for now

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, MrBarry465 said:

Opening up the country when 40% of the population have been vaccinated and then the other 60% haven't - is idiotic at best. 

But by JUne/July, we could be in a realistic position where we have 40% with 2 jabs and the rest with one. So restrictions then ( other than minor ones like handwashing/masks in the tube) should be dispenses with 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

This is my concern, that there's something in these variants that they're sitting on for now

They wouldnt be hiding it internationally for several reasons

[MrBarry465]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

But by JUne/July, we could be in a realistic position where we have 40% with 2 jabs and the rest with one. So restrictions then ( other than minor ones like handwashing/masks in the tube) should be dispenses with 

Some restrictions will need to be in place until the end of the year. I.e. I would expect hotel quarantine from many countries to be in place for a year if not more now.

You need to broaden your picture on what 'restrictions' are, as you seem to be looking at it purely from a social contact aspect. Restrictions on travel and how they impact our lives are still not clear, but I would expect these to be in place for a long time to come. 

Edited February 17, 2021 by MrBarry465

[zahidf]

Just now, MrBarry465 said:

Some restrictions will need to be in place until the end of the year. I.e. I would expect hotel quarantine from many countries to be in place for a year if not more now.

You need to broaden your picture on what 'restrictions' are, as you seem to be looking at it purely from a social contact aspect. 

Im not planning to go abroad so not really bothered about hotel quarantine

 

I suspect once more of the world is vaccinated, this will be gotten rid off sooner rather than later

[zahidf]

Prof Dame Angela McLean, chief scientific adviser at the Ministry of Defence, told the Science and Technology Committee that is was “quite unlikely” for a full return to how society was before the pandemic struck, according to PA media.

“I suspect we just won’t go to work if we have a respiratory illness,” she said.

When asked whether this would be mandated, she added: “It would be most powerful if it became socially unacceptable to go to work with a cough.”

[504329lt]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Some quite worrying daily rises in GM yesterday, it may be a blip, but it's not common to see such rises in so many boroughs at the same time:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/latest-coronavirus-infection-rates-manchester-19852411

[MrBarry465]

Why do people keep saying 'goal posts are shifting'. At no point during this pandemic has anyone ever provided me with goalposts on what I should expect, goalposts are rarely provided in life if ever.

We are moving into a rapidly changing world, on many levels, it's about time the general public get with the program.

[Ozanne]

21 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

Article today saying the government are going to advise that working from home should remain throughout the year, which I am happy about - I'll be happy to never set foot in the office again to be honest 🙂 I see no point being in London medium term now. 

That’s really good to hear. I’m the same as you and would happily stay working from home. The caveat is that is before my winter electric bill though! 😂

[MrBarry465]

Just now, Ozanne said:

That’s really good to hear. I’m the same as you and would happily stay working from home. The caveat is that is before my winter electric bill though! 😂

The work from home policy has actually allowed me to leave London and move to Bristol in a few weeks, something I am grateful for. 

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, 504329lt said:

Yes, we've been on a steady, albeit slow cases reduction for a while now.  I'm just trying to read the tea-leaves for this case fall to stop.

[MrBarry465]

This is specifically the reason why we shouldn't rush to open up before vaccines kick in.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268014-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1613495701