When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

15 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

Why do you think that. If that’s the case then why don’t we just stay locked down till mid April then unlock, I really think the next 8 weeks are Key to knocking this while thing on the head 

Because by that point everyone over 40 will have been vaccinated (and had time for effects to kick in).

 

If we assume that the vaccine reduced asymptomatic transmission by 60%, symptomatic covid-19 by 80%, hospitalisation and death by 95% (all of these are conservative assumptions) then you’re really looking at a minuscule number of hospitalisations by April. 
 

I accept that a small number of under 40’s are hospitalised, but for two reasons we should see this number fall considerably by April:

 

- Firstly, we are baking in another couple of months of pretty tight restrictions. Cases could halve four times in that period (let’s be conservative and say they only halve once due to adverse impact of schools reopening)

 

- But more importantly, we are removing tens of millions of virus vectors from society which will slash transmission. Your 35 year olds bus driver isn’t catching the virus from his elderly customers anymore because they’ve been vaccinated etc. Everyone who has been vaccinated early is not only protecting themselves, but also their contacts, and contacts of contacts.

 

Between the vaccine and the ongoing baked in restrictions, it’ll basically be over as a public health issue within 8 weeks. 

[Toilet Duck]

41 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

Why don’t we just do first doses until everyone has had one then do the second doses after. If it really offers the protection then surely it’s safer to just bang on first doses to get cases so low given then the risk of infection of any kind is so low. Please can someone explain @Toilet Duck

Because we currently have no data past 42 days for Pfizer and past 12 weeks for AZ, so we don’t know for sure if that level of protection remains. It may do (it probably does since 6-8 months seems to be stable enough post-infection), but it’s already a calculated risk pushing the Pfizer gap to 12 weeks. 

[Havors]

23 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Because we currently have no data past 42 days for Pfizer and past 12 weeks for AZ, so we don’t know for sure if that level of protection remains. It may do (it probably does since 6-8 months seems to be stable enough post-infection), but it’s already a calculated risk pushing the Pfizer gap to 12 weeks. 

There is data from the studies. Showed a good length of time if i can remember 

[Guest]

Today’s figures:

[Guest]

Vaccination update:

[StuMalinas]

29 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Because we currently have no data past 42 days for Pfizer and past 12 weeks for AZ, so we don’t know for sure if that level of protection remains. It may do (it probably does since 6-8 months seems to be stable enough post-infection), but it’s already a calculated risk pushing the Pfizer gap to 12 weeks. 

If you were running this country based on what youve said "it probably does since 6-8 months seems to be stable enough post-infection" Would you take another risk and extend it again.  Am i right in thinking that the quicker we get to 'herd immunity' the less virus will be circulating meaning less people are gonna catch it which means first doses are more important the second doses in the first phase then after give second doses for longevity 

[StuMalinas]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update:

This is going to get really hard to look at in the near future because everytime you post it it gets smaller. Perhaps only provide us with a daily 7 day snapshot and then give us the whole table weekly? Just an idea though. 

[JoeyT]

Big old drop again but don’t worry we’ll just carry on being locked up like battery hens 🙃

 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

This is going to get really hard to look at in the near future because everytime you post it it gets smaller. Perhaps only provide us with a daily 7 day snapshot and then give us the whole table weekly? Just an idea though. 

Sure, I can do that, it’s harder to edit in my phone but I can try!

[StuMalinas]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Sure, I can do that, it’s harder to edit in my phone but I can try!

Awesome not a criticism though so please don't read it like that but the most important information is the week on week comparison and the number per day. Still a good job though and defo helpful  

[BobWillis]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I reckon the pandemic will be basically over as a public health crisis in the UK by mid April 

It’ll be over on March 6th. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, StuMalinas said:

Awesome not a criticism though so please don't read it like that but the most important information is the week on week comparison and the number per day. Still a good job though and defo helpful  

I appreciate the feedback so thanks!

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, BobWillis said:

It’ll be over on March 6th. 

Pretty much, yeah. But by mid April we should in theory be in a position where the NHS cannot be overwhelmed regardless of how much we reopen. 

[StuMalinas]

1 minute ago, BobWillis said:

It’ll be over on March 6th. 

explain why you think that? Or are you joking my thinking is Social Distancing will be around till July/August and return to some normality in May/June. I have a holiday to the states booked in July so I'm praying were back to normal by then

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, StuMalinas said:

explain why you think that? Or are you joking my thinking is Social Distancing will be around till July/August and return to some normality in May/June. I have a holiday to the states booked in July so I'm praying were back to normal by then

Social distancing will be “around” like you say. But the pandemic as a public health crisis will have long since ended. In fact it will be basically over in the next few weeks given that over 70s and the CEV will have been vaccinated for 3+ weeks by that points. Those who are sadly dying now are residual deaths from when we were in a much worse state a month or so ago. 

[gooner1990]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Social distancing will be “around” like you say. But the pandemic as a public health crisis will have long since ended. In fact it will be basically over in the next few weeks given that over 70s and the CEV will have been vaccinated for 3+ weeks by that points. Those who are sadly dying now are residual deaths from when we were in a much worse state a month or so ago. 

For the sake of everyone's sanity the goverment have to loosen this up a lot quicker than the scientists want us to.

[StuMalinas]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

Social distancing will be “around” like you say. But the pandemic as a public health crisis will have long since ended. In fact it will be basically over in the next few weeks given that over 70s and the CEV will have been vaccinated for 3+ weeks by that points. Those who are sadly dying now are residual deaths from when we were in a much worse state a month or so ago. 

But 1500 people are still being hospitalised a day which is still so high so still think deaths are going to be lagging for a few more months until those being admitted goes below 500 and then deaths are in single figures. That might not be till the end of march mid april. Just my thoughts though. What is the percentage of mortality after being admitted? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, gooner1990 said:

For the sake of everyone's sanity the goverment have to loosen this up a lot quicker than the scientists want us to.

Yeah I agree. Scientists are perfectionists by definition. They want to drive cases down to zero and the few older people that will still die because their vaccine didn’t work or they didn’t take it, or the tiny percentage younger people that would get unlucky and pass away or be hospitalised, that’s enough for the scientists to not want to reopen. But the government aren’t perfectionists, they need to find the ideal balance. And with over 70’s and the CEV having been vaccinated, that balance needs to tip towards civil liberties and the economy. 

[BobWillis]

1 minute ago, StuMalinas said:

explain why you think that? Or are you joking my thinking is Social Distancing will be around till July/August and return to some normality in May/June. I have a holiday to the states booked in July so I'm praying were back to normal by then

Because March 6th is 3 weeks since the most vulnerable received their first dose, at which point it becomes an endemic virus which continually decreases in severity as more immunity is jabbed into the population. 
On top of that a sizeable proportion of NHS staff will have been vaccinated which should* vastly reduce nosocomial spread which has been a major and underreported cause of disease and death throughout the pandemic. 
 

*Assuming the news about reduces transmission post vaccination is true. 

[steviewevie]

Israel said to have used Covid vaccines as bargaining tool in Syria prisoner swap

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/20/israel-said-to-have-used-covid-vaccines-as-bargaining-tool-in-syria-prisoner-swap

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

But 1500 people are still being hospitalised a day which is still so high so still think deaths are going to be lagging for a few more months until those being admitted goes below 500 and then deaths are in single figures. That might not be till the end of march mid april. Just my thoughts though. What is the percentage of mortality after being admitted? 

Anecdotally the threshold to be hospitalised is a lot lower now than it was at the peak 

[StuMalinas]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yeah I agree. Scientists are perfectionists by definition. They want to drive cases down to zero and the few older people that will still die because their vaccine didn’t work or they didn’t take it, or the tiny percentage younger people that would get unlucky and pass away or be hospitalised, that’s enough for the scientists to not want to reopen. But the government aren’t perfectionists, they need to find the ideal balance. And with over 70’s and the CEV having been vaccinated, that balance needs to tip towards civil liberties and the economy. 

The way I view if we fully unlock the economy now and then have to lockdown again its going to be much more costly economically then having a few more months of lockdown then opening up fully forever (or until the next pandemic).

[steviewevie]

Just now, BobWillis said:

Because March 6th is 3 weeks since the most vulnerable received their first dose, at which point it becomes an endemic virus which continually decreases in severity as more immunity is jabbed into the population. 
On top of that a sizeable proportion of NHS staff will have been vaccinated which should* vastly reduce nosocomial spread which has been a major and underreported cause of disease and death throughout the pandemic. 
 

*Assuming the news about reduces transmission post vaccination is true. 

yep, and it is around then when the gradual exit of lockdown starts.

[BobWillis]

By the way I’m not saying that’s when all restrictions will end etc I’m saying that’s when it ceases to be an epidemic in this country. What the policy makers decide to do about that is another issue entirely. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

The way I view if we fully unlock the economy now and then have to lockdown again its going to be much more costly economically then having a few more months of lockdown then opening up fully forever (or until the next pandemic).

Why would we “have to lockdown again”?