The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

I don't doubt you're right. The problem is that disgruntled of Tunbridge wells has a disproportionate influence on the policies of the main parties. As does bitter of basildon & extremely gruntled of Eton!

and they do this via the power held by Scotsmen?

I'm thinking it's never occurred to you that the outputs are the result of the inputs.

The indy campaign has promised Scotland can buck this, and out of a finite Scottish economy can come infinite policies - like how one set of oil money that's not enough to cover even one of thing will be used to pay for three things.

Another case of Scottish exceptionalism that will be proven false.

[eFestivals]

It'll be our choice. We can choose to have our own currency, we can choose to accept or reject whatever conditions rUK puts on a common travel area.

You can choose to have your own currency.

You cannot choose the cost that every person in Scotland will carry to do so.

[eFestivals]

A more serious point on the oil stuff. After this is over, if .......YES win, I have already " guessed " that Osborne`s first call will be to the markets to explain he was only playing party politics about the CU.

And as you've already admitted, you've guessed on the basis of no economic knowledge and the complete opposite to the informed view of experts (I gave you a list of those experts - banks, rating agencies, etc).

In return you gave me Joseph Stiglitz - the man who said that Greece was neither bankrupt nor needed a bailout.

I reckon his 2nd will need to be to the Oil Companies as he has been talking down their business(s) for months now. How can they expect to attract investment / protect jobs etc with all this talk of the oil running out. I though the job of government was to support jobs and industry or is this all more party politics ? Shameful scenes.

PMSL.

You do know that the yes campiagn is claiming the best investment rate in Eurpoe right now, don't you? Care to guess where that investment is being made, and how George has talked it down to achieve that?

The yes campaign claim that the increased investment due to the tax breaks George has given will see the future oil revenues rise, too. It might have helped them if they'd bothered to do a few calculations around that tho - because that investment extends the oil industry, but adds almost nothing to the extraction revenues (the extraction revenues is 'the oil money', rather than the employment in the oil sector).

[eFestivals]

So apparently tomorrow's yougov poll in the Sunday Times is 51 yes 49 no (dks excluded)

Look like you could get half your wishes with a yes vote.

The other half of the wishes will be much much harder to attain.

Oh & look

"Scots to be offered radical new deal in bid to save the union"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/06/scots-radical-new-deal-save-the-union

I wonder why they'd never mentioned it before.

There's been nothing dumber done by no than this. They really are a bunch of morons.

I'm thinking about the only think which might reverse the number of yes-ers now would be if all 28 nheads of the EU stood together, with the Commision & Commissioners, and said "iScotland will not get easy entry into the EU".

But then again, I doubt it would be believed because only Alex is bluster free.

[eFestivals]

& if NATO says they don't want us. That'll be fine by me.

and it'll be fine with Alex too.

Also fine with Alex will be:-

1. no CU.

2. no EU

3. no Scottish NHS

4. no Scottish economy

5. etc, etc, etc.

There's only one thing he cares for, and it's not the Scottish people.

[eFestivals]

Wait till you see tomorrows front page of the mail on sunday - don`t know how to post image thingy.

Milliband : We`ll put gaurds on Scottish border !!!!!!!!!!!

new poll reveals vote is on a knife edge.

BT don`t seem to realise that all this shit is working against them, There campaign is a shambles and where is Darling ?

Yes-ers don't seem to realise that not all papers are as biased as they think. w*nks Over Somerset couldn't have written it better.

[zahidf]

One poll is not that exciting. Good article on how to take it with a pinch of salt ( esp since another poll last night had a 4 point no lead.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/07/remember-it-was-the-yougov-polling-panel-that-most-exaggerated-the-last-political-earthquake-the-cleggasm-in-april-2010/

[eFestivals]

rUK will keep nuclear weapons.

I'm less sure about that than you are.

There's few places that Scotland becoming independent impact onto the UK in any meaningful way, because Scotland is a cost to the rUK (as Alex's own numbers prove, and which w*nksOverSomerset lies about) - and so the loss of revenue is more than offset by the loss of liabilities.

For example, there'll be less of a contribution towards welfare payments but they'll be an even greater reduction in welfare payments. This stuff pretty much cancels each other out (tho slightly to rUK's benefit).

The only place where there's not this effect to any meaningful effect is with defence - because the military will see new angles for military threats against the UK whilst losing a big chunk of budget.

One of the few easy places to chop off rUK military spending whilst broadly keeping current operational capabilities would be to drop Trident.

(Amusingly, despite Scotland always having moans loudest about paying for Trident, there's no financial benefit to iScotland by not having to pay for Trident - in fact it's a cost to iScotland and not a gain).

At the end of the day it will be a political decision tho, so the most sensible and easy military option might not be what happens.

[eFestivals]

Independence as proposed by Salmond is not going to leave Scotland nuclear free. Not now... Not ever...

This is true, and this is what Salmond is explicitly saying.

But like with most things, most Scots seem to believe the opposite of what's said even when said by their 'own' side.

[eFestivals]

One poll is not that exciting. Good article on how to take it with a pinch of salt ( esp since another poll last night had a 4 point no lead.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/07/remember-it-was-the-yougov-polling-panel-that-most-exaggerated-the-last-political-earthquake-the-cleggasm-in-april-2010/

I'm not taking it with a pinch of salt, even tho there was similar in Quebec and Quebec lost.

When one side will not hear any reasonable* argument, the argument is lost.

(* just to be clear I'm, not trying to suggest every 'no' argument has been reasonable).

The cheering of Darling's admission "of course Scotland can use the pound" shows that detail is not important to yes-ers. Only rhetoric is.

When that nation was founded on rhetoric, I guess it's no great surprise.

[LJS]

More powers being promised to Scotland.... Devo-Max...

Won't there need to be a another referendum before that could happen ?

And isn't there a justification for that referendum to be UK wide ?

I really don't think it will come to that, Barry. I now believe Yes will win.

Why do I believe that? After all only one poll has shown a yes lead & that lead is well within the margin of error.

If that was all that was happening, we would not have seen the blind panic from the Westminster Parties that has resulted in the astonishing spectacle of George Osborne changing the basis of their campaign after hundreds of thousands of people have already voted. They would not be doing this unless they had good reason to believe that Yes was winning. They will have their own private polls as well as canvassing results.

The problem for them is they now appear to be desperately panicking (because they are) & I don't believe the sight of politicians panicking is ever a vote winner.

Its not in the bag but its damn close to it!

p.s. in the post indy negotiations, I would like to offer all the Scottish Politicians who have run the better Together Campaign, which may go down in history as the most pathetic ever! You can have them

[LJS]

A pretty good dissection of where the no campaign went wrong.

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/a-bout-of-ol-gils.html?m=1

[GlastoSimon]

When I went to Scotland last month, it was interesting that I didn't see a single No campaigner in Glasgow, Edinburgh or any of the local areas I visited. Quite a few Yes campaigners were around. I was only there for a few days, but it seemed like the No campaign was a little complacent. Ultimately the 'undecided/don't know' votes will secure this for either side, and at the moment I honestly think a yes vote will come out on top unless anything major changes.

To say these last-minute promises are desperate is a bit of an understatement, too.

Living in England I hope Scotland sticks around due to the threat of length Tory reign, but another week of positive press for the Yes campaign/negative press for the No campaign may well seal it.

[russycarps]

I've been on holiday for a week and come back to this incredible poll result!

The headline in the daily sieg heil today had to be seen to be believed. The "no" campaign has surely been the most inept in the history of campaigns!

Do they really think cameron, milliband, osborne and the queen are the trump cards that will sway the undecided?? Wonderful comedy.

Cameron MUST resign immediately if the Yes wins, surely? Even his fat skin isnt that thick is it? Gideon will rule the country you could not make it up.

Very interesting times ahead. I still suspect the No vote will win, but if it does it will be in the same dubious manner as the Quebec vote.

Can the "establishment" really lose a vote of this magnitude? It will be the most devastating loss for them, well, ever.

I hear Jeb bush is being brought in by the No campaign to count the votes....

edit: I see the odds at the bookies are 2-1 for a yes win...is it free money?

Edited September 7, 2014 by russycarps

[LJS]

20 reasons Scotland might vote yes (just a bit of fun!)

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/07/independence-poll-no-campaign_n_5779236.html#slide=start

Edited September 7, 2014 by LJS

[lost]

edit: I see the odds at the bookies are 2-1 for a yes win...is it free money?

No.. All you need for a you gov account is an email address, You could have cybernats with 10 -15 accounts. As has already been said wait for the "invite only" polls before risking your hard earned on that bet.

Edited September 7, 2014 by lost

[LJS]

No.. All you need for a you gov account is an email address, You could have cybernats with 10 -15 accounts. As has already been said wait for the "invite only" polls before risking your hard earned on that bet.

Ooh a conspiracy theory!

I thought it was us yessers that were meant to be into them!

[lost]

Ooh a conspiracy theory!

I thought it was us yessers that were meant to be into them!

Who says I'm not a yes'er?

[LJS]

Who says I'm not a yes'er?

from your occasional posts on here, I would call you an interested observer. You seem to live in the North of England so I guess you don't have a vote. So I don't think you are a yesser. But I will be delighted to be proved wrong. (Neil will tell you I am used to it )

As I pointed out before, there is something very very strange going on with the polls with yougov going from being the most No friendly to the most Yes friendly in the space of a month or so!

And, of course on- line polls are susceptible to the fiddling you have highlighted - although there may be safeguards against it - I have no idea. But they are susceptible to manipulation from both sides.

My gut feeling (again I am repeating myself) is that Osborne wouldn't have said what he said today on the basis of one poll. They must have had further intelligence indicating they were likely to lose.

The fact that his offer off "new powers" appears to be unravelling as fast as it ravelled, is merely another indication of the total incompetence of the BT campaign

Osborne: : "You will see in the next few days a plan of action to give more powers to Scotland; more tax powers, more spending powers, more powers over the welfare state.

"That will be put into effect the moment there is a 'No' vote in the referendum."

Darling: "What we're talking about is the powers that have already been announced by the party leaders in Scotland and in Westminster.

"What the government is saying is that it proposes to publish a timetable - the procedure - to allow these proposals to be implemented.

"So, it's not new powers; the powers have already been announced. What it is, is about the process and timetable so that people can see quite clearly how quickly these powers can be introduced."

They will no doubt spin this as being the same thing but it clearly isn't.

[eFestivals]

A pretty good dissection of where the no campaign went wrong.

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/a-bout-of-ol-gils.html?m=1

Hmmmm .... so the fact that truth just isn't believed is a scenario that is able to be overturned by a truthful campaign? I'm not so sure.

------

Here's an amusing consideration, that i'd love all people in Scotland reading here to answer.

The UK govt has said there won't be a currency union (CU). The yes campaign (and various yes voters here) say they're bluffing.

One of those sides will be proven right and the other proven wrong if there's a yes vote.

So .... if there's a yes vote but if there's no CU, whose fault are the bad economic consequences of that onto iScotland?

Would those bad economic consequences be the fault of "the English" or "Westminster"?

Or would those bad economic consequences be the fault of Salmond, the yes campaign, and the yes-voters of Scotland?

Does any politician in Scotland get held to account for it? Or does a mass delusion break out in Scotland?

[LJS]

Hmmmm .... so the fact that truth just isn't believed is a scenario that is able to be overturned by a truthful campaign? I'm not so sure.

------

Here's an amusing consideration, that i'd love all people in Scotland reading here to answer.

The UK govt has said there won't be a currency union (CU). The yes campaign (and various yes voters here) say they're bluffing.

One of those sides will be proven right and the other proven wrong if there's a yes vote.

So .... if there's a yes vote but if there's no CU, whose fault are the bad economic consequences of that onto iScotland?

Would those bad economic consequences be the fault of "the English" or "Westminster"?

Or would those bad economic consequences be the fault of Salmond, the yes campaign, and the yes-voters of Scotland?

Does any politician in Scotland get held to account for it? Or does a mass delusion break out in Scotland?

Who knows, Neil?

Perhaps the Snp will get the blame & we'll elect a Scottish Labour government in 2016. I do hope that one side effect of the campaign will be at least some the engagement continuing & people taking a genuine interest in day to day politics.

Edited September 8, 2014 by LJS

[lost]

from your occasional posts on here, I would call you an interested observer. You seem to live in the North of England so I guess you don't have a vote. So I don't think you are a yesser. But I will be delighted to be proved wrong. (Neil will tell you I am used to it )

If I was being selfish a yes vote would benefit me greatly. I work in financial services so Scotland using the pound without a currency union would mean no central bank as a lender of last resort and so your financial services sector would have to reduce to the size of your economy with those jobs coming south boosting my rates.

If you choose to join the ecb each country has to make a gold contribution. Scotland wouldn't take any of the boe's gold so we'd have a reverse of browns bottom where the market knows Scotland has to enter it to purchase several tons and so would price accordingly again making me a few quid.

Having income producing assets overseas a weaker pound and higher interest rates wouldn't affect me as much as the poor.

Finally there's the matter of Scotland's Lower corporation taxes which I believe we will match and generally lower overall taxes due to future uk governments being further to the right.

So if I was Scottish I'd probably want a no vote but as you say I live in the north of England so could benefit if yes wins.

Edited September 8, 2014 by lost

[eFestivals]

Who knows, Neil?

Don't you know your own opinion?

I'm asking you who you will blame for you not believing the UK govt over something where you were wrong and the UK govt were truthful.

[kaosmark2]

Do you think it would have been the same atmosphere if England had been playing Germany tomorrow night ?

Do you think it would if Holland had been playing Germany?

Football rivalries are not representative of a nation's tolerance.

[kaosmark2]

It'll be our choice. We can choose to have our own currency, we can choose to accept or reject whatever conditions rUK puts on a common travel area.

I hate the overuse of the word, but that's a very naive response. Scotland can decide how to negotiate, but it cannot decide what it gets. It can't decide to have a CU without rUK agreeing, it can't decide to a common travel area without rUK agreeing. If it lacks either of those things, many aspects of life will become more difficult for Scots and the Scottish government.

It may be that such difficulties are worth it. We don't know and I doubt we ever will, but IF Scotland has any greater link to rUK than the rest of the EU it will be more beholden to the policies and decisions of a rUK government than other countries, and will have sacrificed its ability to impact such decisions.