Weather thread 2011

[worthyraver]

Daily update here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69427-glastonbury-2011/page__st__119

[jeffie]

I'm travelling down to somerset today to spend some time there with friends before the festival and basically have to pack for glasto now! I've been looking at the same forecast for a couple of days and it says there may be some light rain but it'll be dry most of the time and kinda warm but not blistering. Do people reckon this is accurate? Otherwise im gonna be taking down so many sets of clothes...

[the_arsonist]

yeah i probably will but if it's gonna be wet then i'll take prodominantly warm/waterproof stuff and vice versa. might as well just take everything i own!

[eoinca]

If I was you I'd pack snow shoes just to be on the safe side.

[fur_q]

I'm travelling down to somerset today to spend some time there with friends before the festival and basically have to pack for glasto now! I've been looking at the same forecast for a couple of days and it says there may be some light rain but it'll be dry most of the time and kinda warm but not blistering. Do people reckon this is accurate? Otherwise im gonna be taking down so many sets of clothes...

[Lentus]

Daily update here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69427-glastonbury-2011/page__st__119

[Abster]

Seems a bit on the cold side...

Edited June 16, 2011 by Abster

[haznutuk]

I always think it would be pretty foolish not to prepare for all weathers at a festival, despite the forecasts.

Edited June 16, 2011 by haznutuk

[steviewevie]

You'd think my now we'd have a good idea roughly what the weather will be like - but looking at netweather forums it seems all the forecasting computer models used are giving mixed messages - so still looks like it really could go either way - total mudbath, totally dry for duration of festival, or somewhere inbetween.

It seems GFS looking good, but the arguably more trustworthy ECM not looking too good.

How silly.

[caroline90]

Don't know about anyone else but I'm liking UK weather's prediction...

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Glastonbury-UKXX1641

[Leela33]

Promising!

[eFestivals]

i think the fact that every forecast is different, even the ones from the same place a few hours after their last forecast, gets to show that none of them have much idea what they're talking about, and that weather forecasting is much more guesswork than science.

[Lentus]

i think the fact that every forecast is different, even the ones from the same place a few hours after their last forecast, gets to show that none of them have much idea what they're talking about, and that weather forecasting is much more guesswork than science.

[mirandamayhem]

So I won't worry about the lack of poncho just yet then

[lord stradmor]

I'm trusting the Norwegians...

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Glastonbury/long.html

[fred quimby]

i think the fact that every forecast is different, even the ones from the same place a few hours after their last forecast, gets to show that none of them have much idea what they're talking about, and that weather forecasting is much more guesswork than science.

[steviewevie]

So this is the very useful summary by devonhammer (bring him back) that he used to post on here - this he posted on the netweather forum : netweather

JackOne: So GES/GEFS gives a 4, with ECM giving a 7, so I'll split the difference and go for a 5.5 on a scale of 0=dustbowl, and 10=washout. [Note] Later upgraded to a 5.

GFS: Heavy rain this Friday. Rain Monday. Over the festival there is a battle between a high to the South West and a low to the North East. Could be completely dry, but could easily also be continuous drizzle.

TWO: Heavy rain this Friday. Showers Thursday, rain Friday, then dry.

Meteox: Heavy rain this Friday. Showers and rain throughout

Meteo: Heavy rain this Friday. Rain on Wednesday, light showers Thursday, then dry

GFS Ensemble: A few more runs have rain now, but by no means certain (except this Friday, when it will almost certainly rain)

Met Office: Changeable and windy. Not a true daily update at this stage.

ECM: Not good at all.

YR.NO:As well as the heavy rain on Friday/Saturday, there is heavy rain on Monday, rain on Wednesday and Thursday and a few showers on Friday and Saturday.

While there is somewhat mixed output, this looks much worse than yesterday. On JackOne's scale I'd give this a 7. There is a very real possibility of a wet start and then insufficient temperatures to dry it out. Having said that, there is no consistency. The models aren't agreeing with each other and are changing dramatically from one run to the next, so all still to play for.

[neil999]

i hate being obsessed with the bl00dy weather!!!!!!!!!

[jeffie]

From the Worthy FM facebook site yesterday.

Love the sun, not keen on the clouds - go away!!

[eFestivals]

So this is the very useful summary by devonhammer (bring him back)

only he is able to bring himself back.

As I've said a number of times, he was not banned, and he weas not stopped from posting.

Anything he says different to that is untrue.

Please don't perpetuate his lies.

[Chazeboy]

From the Worthy FM facebook site yesterday.

Love the sun, not keen on the clouds - go away!!

[nickharley]

I'm trusting the Norwegians...

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Glastonbury/long.html

[Davo_Dog]

I'll stick with this one please

http://uk.weather.co...onbury-UKXX1641

[godders1966]

It's getting better. Here's the latest from the Met Office...

UK Outlook for Tuesday 21 Jun 2011 to Thursday 30 Jun 2011:

The generally unsettled conditions look to continue as June comes to a close, with further showers or rain likely to affect many parts of the country, but especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, there should also be some drier, brighter and slightly warmer periods, these most likely in the south of the UK, but particularly across southeastern parts of England. Temperatures will be generally close to average, but will be slightly below in any persistent rain. However, there is a chance of temperatures creeping above average in any extended sunny spells, particularly across the southeast. It will also be windy at times, with a risk of gales, particularly across the north and west at first.

Updated: 1146 on Thu 16 Jun 2011

[cejx]

Met office just out.

The generally unsettled conditions look to continue as June comes to a close, with further showers or rain likely to affect many parts of the country, but especially Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, there should also be some drier, brighter and slightly warmer periods, these most likely in the south of the UK, but particularly across southeastern parts of England. Temperatures will be generally close to average, but will be slightly below in any persistent rain. However, there is a chance of temperatures creeping above average in any extended sunny spells, particularly across the southeast. It will also be windy at times, with a risk of gales, particularly across the north and west at first.

Updated: 1146 on Thu 16 Jun 2011