Weather thread 2011

[gillmacca]

This one I can handle. Not a heatwave, but not wet either (for the main Glasto Days): The Weather Outlook Could do with a drop in the wind

Edited June 13, 2011 by gillmacca

[glasgowpete]

This one I can handle. Not a heatwave, but not wet either (for the main Glasto Days): The Weather Outlook Could do with a drop in the wind

[gillmacca]

does that not show rain right up to it? mudbath

[hotwaterbottle]

I had a nightmare last night where it was so cold and wet I just slept in my tent all weekend and and I woke up and I had to leave.

Dreams don't come true...

SO

nfr nfc.

sun sun sun.

[The Nal]

Id take Accuweathers forecast right now. Rain on Tuesday and then none until Sunday.

Going to need wellies though.....

Edited June 13, 2011 by The Nal

[sjhande]

Bloody AGES to go yet. Forecast is changing daily so no need to sweat it until next Tuesday. Forecast last year wasnt much better than this at this point.

Mindyew - live about an hour away from site and if it does anything like what it did yesterday its going to make 2007 look like 2010...

[benm61]

I was just wondering, referring to Jackone's scale of 1-10, what would this weekend at IOW have been. I know the we are all still believeing NFR NFC as a mantra for the run up to Glasto but even if we do geta bit of the wet stuff, I would hope it was a few odd showers rather than the horrendous nastiness of 2007 where I am sure it just rained all the time!

[glasgowpete]

Id take Accuweathers forecast right now. Rain on Tuesday and then none until Sunday.

Going to need wellies though.....

[Glastoboy]

I refuse to believe any of the forecasts. It will be HOT & SUNNY!

N.F.R N.F.C

[danceonfire]

NFR NFC

Hello sunshine!

[Homer]

Sorry people, still don't see where the mudbath is coming from based on the forecast for the next five days. Don't panic!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/3076?area=Shepton%20Mallet

[jimmyk83]

I was just wondering, referring to Jackone's scale of 1-10, what would this weekend at IOW have been. I know the we are all still believeing NFR NFC as a mantra for the run up to Glasto but even if we do geta bit of the wet stuff, I would hope it was a few odd showers rather than the horrendous nastiness of 2007 where I am sure it just rained all the time!

[Wooderson]

From personal experience 1997 was miles 'king worse than 2007.

Of course as Neil and other 'ardcore vets have pointed out the washouts in the 80s were WWI standard - put recent "bad years" in perspective.

- - -

We've seen worse and survived worse. 2011 will be a vintage year. No doubts.

[Torcs4]

Yeah, last year at about 2 weeks out the forecast was terrible. That was my first Glastonbury, and coming from Australia and only knowing the worst of the flooding imagery, our group went on a late, mad 'prepare for the worst/hell on earth' spending spree, all (obviously) for absolutely nothing. The only certain difference we have now to last year was that the weather for weeks and weeks and weeks leading in was stellar. And then from memory, the bad weather never really came? It was still hot and clear for some time post-Glastonbury, I think? Point being: They can get it very wrong. Repeat, repeat, repeat. They can get it very wrong.

At this stage - just feel sorry for the set up crew! This must be a f***ing nightmare for them. If this weather is going to hold for at least the rest of this week, I'm guessing there's going to be a *lot* of work still being done when we arrive.

Edited June 13, 2011 by Torcs4

[Pinhead]

+1 really feel for the crew setting up in crappy weather. Respect and hats off to them.

[devonhammer]

JackOne: Ensembles do seem to be indicating rising pressure at the start of the festival, and the runs that are unsettled, look damp rather than wet, so on today's runs 5, with no indication either way of a wet or dry festival. Overall though there is still a slight indications of a damp festival, so I will stay at a 6 on the scale of 0= dust bowl, 10= washout. However, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic at the moment.

GFS: Dry Friday to Sunday.

TWO: Dry Thursday to Sunday

Dutch: Rain Wednesday then light to very light showers.

Meteo: Dry

PositiveWeather Solutions: A mudbath scenario cannot now be ruled out by the end ofthe festival on Sunday but with some time still to go, it's 50/50 on that score.

GFS Ensemble: Mostly dry

Met Office: Next weekend and the start of the following week will see a few periods of drier and brighter weather, most likely in the south later, but often unsettled with further showers or rain. Continuing risk of strong winds in the west, and temperatures remaining cool..

ECM: Wednesday wet, Thursday dry (that's as far as it goes)

Norwegians: Not yet in range

Normal caveats apply:

1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather

2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

Edited June 13, 2011 by devonhammer

[JoeyT]

JackOne: Ensembles do seem to be indicating rising pressure at the start of the festival, and the runs that are unsettled, look damp rather than wet, so on today's runs 5, with no indication either way of a wet or dry festival. Overall though there is still a slight indications of a damp festival, so I will stay at a 6 on the scale of 0= dust bowl, 10= washout. However, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic at the moment. GFS: Dry Friday to Sunday. TWO: Dry Thursday to Sunday Dutch: Rain Wednesday then light to very light showers.

Meteo: Dry

PositiveWeather Solutions: A mudbath scenario cannot now be ruled out by the end ofthe festival on Sunday but with some time still to go, it's 50/50 on that score.

GFS Ensemble: Mostly dry Met Office: Next weekend and the start of the following week will see a few periods of drier and brighter weather, most likely in the south later, but often unsettled with further showers or rain. Continuing risk of strong winds in the west, and temperatures remaining cool.. ECM: Wednesday wet, Thursday dry (that's as far as it goes) Norwegians: Not yet in range Normal caveats apply:

1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather

2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

[MyTwistedWords]

Most of those forecasts are pretty positive aren't they?

All point to little if any rain...

Perked my Monday morning right up

Edited June 13, 2011 by MyTwistedWords

[devonhammer]

There's been a lot of negativity lately, but we've gone from definite rain to an all to play for scenario. We now have a situation where there is a high vs. low battle whereas before we had a succession of lows coming right over us.

I really think we could pull this off.

[Flarber]

I nursed a Chaffinch back to health from a near certain death last night...that's got to clock up some Karmic points with Mother Nature!

[The Nal]

Continuing risk of strong winds in the west

[devonhammer]

Here's the GFS Ensemble. This is based on 20 runs with slightly different output. From this, it will almost certainly rain Friday/Saturday this week (and this agrees with the weather forecasts). Have a look at the festival dates though and very few runs show r**n. Those that do, don't show much.

Time for some old-school Prince:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cvgHBpRKv0

[edit] with the image

Edited June 13, 2011 by devonhammer

[devonhammer]

[benm61]

I am tempted to say terrible things. I am prepared to be judged and be judged harshly however I have come to realise that in my heart I am willing to tolerate a couple of shpwers providing there is no mud bath and no long spells of rain. That is all.

I await my judgement.

[The Nal]

Finding the worst bit of an overall positive set of forecasts.

Time to bring out the big guns:

Edited June 13, 2011 by The Nal