General Election 2015

[eFestivals]

Ouch! The latest poll has the tories up 6%, putting them 4% ahead of Labour.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

My first thought was that this is so out of step with other polls that it must be an outlier, but on fuller consideration I don't think it is, it more-looks like UKIP voters are abandoning UKIP and returning to the tories.

Without Labour seats in Scotland, this poll says that the tories win.

[russycarps]

Ouch! The latest poll has the tories up 6%, putting them 4% ahead of Labour.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

My first thought was that this is so out of step with other polls that it must be an outlier, but on fuller consideration I don't think it is, it more-looks like UKIP voters are abandoning UKIP and returning to the tories.

Without Labour seats in Scotland, this poll says that the tories win.

Yeh, farage hasnt been in the news much recently. The right wing press will give him less and less exposure as we get closer to the general election I suspect. UKIP are nothing unless his mug is in the papers and on the telly.

Tory win seems possible, considering the actions in scotland. SNP will retain their votes, UKIP lose theirs = tory win.

God help us.

[zahidf]

Ouch! The latest poll has the tories up 6%, putting them 4% ahead of Labour.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/16/tories-up-six-points-latest-icm-opinion-poll

My first thought was that this is so out of step with other polls that it must be an outlier, but on fuller consideration I don't think it is, it more-looks like UKIP voters are abandoning UKIP and returning to the tories.

Without Labour seats in Scotland, this poll says that the tories win.

Maybe, but i think the last marginals polls had Labour up by a bit and shows a labour majority. One more poll which has that much of a swing will really worry me.

I do agree that UKIP supportes will go back to the Tories to some degree though. Just how much: i suspect after a 'good' debate from Farage, UKIP will go up in the polls a bit and hopefully steal more of the Tory voters.

I also think polls like this will lose SNP some support in Scotland. cooler heads might prevail and they will vote Labour to keep the Tories out

More polls due today after 4.

Edited February 16, 2015 by zahidf

[eFestivals]

One more poll which has that much of a swing will really worry me.

the UKIP vote has been falling for over a month and the tory vote has been climbing - in just about all polls.

There's less that's different about the poll I've just linked to than your words suggest - tho I do accept that this one has such a big leading margin for the tories that their lead might not be quite so big as it suggests.

[zahidf]

the UKIP vote has been falling for over a month and the tory vote has been climbing - in just about all polls.

There's less that's different about the poll I've just linked to than your words suggest - tho I do accept that this one has such a big leading margin for the tories that their lead might not be quite so big as it suggests.

Lord Ashcroft's poll ( on a similar basis to the ICM one, a phone poll with the same numbers) has Labour in the lead by 1 % for the first time and a similar drop in UKIP's poll numbers. All his previous polls had the Tories with a small ( 1-2%) lead for the last few months.

It's hard to know for sure: generally, anything like a 6% leap without anything major happening does seem to be an outlier though. And some of the UKIP poll losses ( esp up north) could be going back to Labour as well.

[eFestivals]

Lord Ashcroft's poll ( on a similar basis to the ICM one, a phone poll with the same numbers) has Labour in the lead by 1 % for the first time and a similar drop in UKIP's poll numbers. All his previous polls had the Tories with a small ( 1-2%) lead for the last few months.

It's hard to know for sure: generally, anything like a 6% leap without anything major happening does seem to be an outlier though. And some of the UKIP poll losses ( esp up north) could be going back to Labour as well.

Ashcroft's polls are generally regarded as being the least accurate, because he doesn't have historical data to model against.

Also, the polling company isn't his living or anything he much cares about being there in (say) a years time (unlike with the 'professional' polling companies) - and so are prime for using to push a view that he thinks is helpful to who he wants to win (the tories, very obviously).

And finally: there's been a number of later-admitted fuck-ups within what the Ashcroft polls have reported (which hasn't happened to anything like the same extent with other pollsters).

They're better ignored than taken much notice of. There might be a little interest value from them (bearing what I've said above in mind), but not a lot else.

That doesn't mean I'm saying they're definitely a scam btw - but it would be an error to put too much faith in anything they're saying.

[gary1979666]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/16/scottish-voters-dent-milibands-hopes/

Interesting read from the head of YouGov - again, just one view so take with a pinch of salt.

[eFestivals]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/16/scottish-voters-dent-milibands-hopes/

Interesting read from the head of YouGov - again, just one view so take with a pinch of salt.

yup - there's around 2% of extra Labour support gone missing within Scotland from what the polls are reporting, and as I've been saying for 5+ months this is going to lose Labour the election.

As the saying goes: vote SNP get tory, make Salmond & Sturgeon's day.

[Jackmypie]

Yeh, farage hasnt been in the news much recently. The right wing press will give him less and less exposure as we get closer to the general election I suspect. UKIP are nothing unless his mug is in the papers and on the telly.

Tory win seems possible, considering the actions in scotland. SNP will retain their votes, UKIP lose theirs = tory win.

God help us.

Actually there's a programme on channel 4 tonight called UKIP: The First 100 Days. It's meant to be a drama set in the future where UKIP win the election and Farage becomes prime minister.

By the look of the trailer it looks very anti-ukip. It will only gain more exposure for them though..

[eFestivals]

Actually there's a programme on channel 4 tonight called UKIP: The First 100 Days. It's meant to be a drama set in the future where UKIP win the election and Farage becomes prime minister.

By the look of the trailer it looks very anti-ukip. It will only gain more exposure for them though..

There's a bit of row around this programme.

The original plan was to give Farage a right of reply, where he got a decent period of time to call that fictionalised version a load of crap (which is the line he'd have taken, i'm sure).

But for some reason, the man who loves to see his own face on the telly has bottled it. Very strange.

[kaosmark2]

Dave's latest pledge:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31500763

Turn young people into slaves.

[russycarps]

Dave's latest pledge:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31500763

Turn young people into slaves.

It's a vote winner among the middle-aged and pensioners. The people who will actually go out and vote.

The people who will be affected by this policy wont bother voting at all in any real numbers.

If the torys win a majority we have 5 years of hell ahead.

[eFestivals]

Dave's latest pledge:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31500763

Turn young people into slaves.

I'm raving mad about how the tories have completely destroyed employment for young people over the last 35 years.

I was in the middle of my own proper apprenticeship when Thatcher abolished the apprenticeship scheme that existed back then. It took about 20 years for the full effects of what they'd done to hit home.

And yet all that's happened since - by both Labour and the tories - is the introduction of a mickey-mouse version that's just about worthless of the "apprenticeship" name.

But hey, slavery as a replacement is so much better. That'll help people get a sense of self-worth, eh?

[eFestivals]

It's a vote winner among the middle-aged and pensioners. The people who will actually go out and vote.

I'm less sure about that. I reckon it'll be those aged 30 to 45 who'll lap it up the most.

There's a lot of horrible issues around those oldies, but plenty of them will have had proper apprenticeships and will know their worth.

[eFestivals]

fucking hell, less than £2 an hour.

Those tories really did change their minds about the national minimum wage, eh?

[LondonTom]

Wonder how long it will be before those 30 "mandatory community work" hours consist of shelf stacking in a Supermarket?

Their proposed community work programme will cost about £20m to deliver, paid for by "initial savings" from the delivery of universal credit.

Good to see it will be helping beat down the deficit to!

[kaosmark2]

Youth employment has been destroyed in favour of university, but then people wonder why, despite rising costs, young people are consistently choosing university. It's because it's damn hard to go through other options!

[TheGayTent]

Youth employment has been destroyed in favour of university, but then people wonder why, despite rising costs, young people are consistently choosing university. It's because it's damn hard to go through other options!

Partly. It's also partly because people (young people but also young people's parents) have been hoodwinked into believing going to university is the only way to have a successful career.

[eFestivals]

Youth employment has been destroyed in favour of university, but then people wonder why, despite rising costs, young people are consistently choosing university. It's because it's damn hard to go through other options!

yep ... and what all those kids doing A levels and at Uni is hiding is another 3,000,000 who would be unemployed on a 1980s criteria.

In case my choice of words there hasn't hit home, try it this way: unemployment is at 15% today, compared to the bad old days of the 1980s when it hit just 10%.

[eFestivals]

Good to see it will be helping beat down the deficit to!

I know you were joking, but so is the govt when they say "paid for by "initial savings" from the delivery of universal credit".

It's as laughable as IDS popping up on TV in the last few days and saying "Universal Credit is on time and on budget". What that actually means is that it's on-time to 4th revision of the timetable, and on budget after 3 new top-ups of huge amounts of money to the budget (extra billions each time).

And despite the fanfare of the UC roll-out, there's still no working system that can be rolled out.

UC might have been a good idea on paper, but it's one of the biggest govt cock-ups ever. It makes the NHS computer fuck-up seem mild in comparison.

Edited February 17, 2015 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Partly. It's also partly because people (young people but also young people's parents) have been hoodwinked into believing going to university is the only way to have a successful career.

Well they've been convinced it's the only way because other ways have become more difficult. Not impossible mind.

[eFestivals]

Well they've been convinced it's the only way because other ways have become more difficult. Not impossible mind.

thing is, the Uni thing has merely moved the work goalposts, it's not really created anything different.

Where people used to get a degree and get an advantage, they now have to get a masters to get the same advantage.

It's pushed the qualifications higher, to do the same job.

[TheGayTent]

Well they've been convinced it's the only way because other ways have become more difficult. Not impossible mind.

Can't get enough in my line of work, they're good apprenticeships being offered too.

[feral chile]

thing is, the Uni thing has merely moved the work goalposts, it's not really created anything different.

Where people used to get a degree and get an advantage, they now have to get a masters to get the same advantage.

It's pushed the qualifications higher, to do the same job.

Except without the equivalent funding.

[russycarps]

We recently recruited for a junior position and the amount of applicants with a master's was unbelievable. Feel sorry for the poor sods having to fork out all that extra just for a shot at a not particularly wonderful job.

A lot of them had been looking for work for months and their only work experience was unpaid internships, which are an utter disgrace too. Free employment for a year then let them go.