General Election 2015

[LJS]

deutsche bank think a labour snp coalition is most likely outcome in May. Goldman sachs think a tory majority is most likely.

if a labour snp coalition is the outcome I hereby pledge to go into the deutsche bank foyer (it's not far from here) and sodomise myself with a german sausage. It aint gonna happen.

I thought you were a vegetarian!

[gary1979666]

Latest polls suggest that the LibDems face a disaster in the South West - out of the 15 seats they hold, they could lose all bar 3 - most of the losses going to the Tories. Quite surprised by that myself.

[eFestivals]

Latest polls suggest that the LibDems face a disaster in the South West - out of the 15 seats they hold, they could lose all bar 3 - most of the losses going to the Tories. Quite surprised by that myself.

it shows just how dickish so many voters are.

I've given up counting the number of times I've seen people say something like "the LibDems betrayed us by teaming us with the tories, so I'm going to vote tory to punish them".

[eFestivals]

As I can't imagine someone who voted Lib Dem then voting Tory out of protest. Makes no sense....

You're wrongly presuming that everyone who votes has some sense.

[zahidf]

it shows just how dickish so many voters are.

I've given up counting the number of times I've seen people say something like "the LibDems betrayed us by teaming us with the tories, so I'm going to vote tory to punish them".

I assume it's more the former lib dems voting Labour/Green, splitting the vote to let the Tories in?

[lost]

As I can't imagine someone who voted Lib Dem then voting Tory out of protest. Makes no sense....

It's definitely weird with the lib dems currently being part of the coalition, But with them being a merger between the old liberal party and the social democrats their voter base will probably span a huge range of opinions. I'd expect the orange book liberals to move to the right whilst the social democrats would probably go green if they hadn't left already, as new labour was effectively the party the social democrats wanted in the 80's.

[eFestivals]

I was pleased to see UKIP get 9% in an opinion poll published yesterday - people are starting to wake up to what they are.

The downside is that's increasing the tory support, as those voters return to their natural home.

Meanwhile, Farage said yesterday that UKIP are going to be second all over the UK - which was then qualified as being "from Birmingham to Hadrian's Wall".

And yet there's not a jot of anything to suggest that UKIP has any chance of taking any Labour seats anywhere, despite Farage's fantasies.

They'll be lucky to hold the two tory-defector seats they have now.

And with a bit of luck, Farage himself will lose to Al Murray.

[gary1979666]

Just read this on the Times website. Again lots of extrapolation and just one poll etc, but it's basically predicting annihilation for the Libdems.

The Liberal Democrats would get only one seat if the general election were held tomorrow, according to a well-respected pollster.

The British Election Study released the latest analysis of its 20,000-sample poll, which suggested that the Conservatives would get 296 seats, Labour would get 282, the SNP would get 47 and Ukip 3. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, would drop from 56 to one.

Jon Mellon, the Oxford academic behind the research, said that they used a different methodology from conventional polls, and the data was not a forecast but reflected the latest data.

He said that to get 11 seats the Liberal Democrats would need to retain 1.75 times as many of their 2010 voters in their own seats as they did overall.

Ed Fieldhouse, Dr Mellon’s co-author, said that even if there were a recovery in Lib Dem popularity, it was hard to see them getting above 20 seats.

[eFestivals]

I assume it's more the former lib dems voting Labour/Green, splitting the vote to let the Tories in?

Yep, it's probably that more that than anything else - tho there's defo a sizable proportion who'll do what I've said (those with shit for brains, to put it bluntly).

But, I think as the consequences becomes clear to those who do have brain, plenty will actually return to voting LibDem to try and keep the tories out. Much the same is already happening around BNPKIP to try and keep and keep the tories in.

[kaosmark2]

I've said it before, but I'll be shocked if ukip get more than 5 seats. Their impact, like the Greens, will primarily be in splitting the vote, not in gaining any significant number of MPs (Ie. Enough to form a coalition).

[gary1979666]

I was pleased to see UKIP get 9% in an opinion poll published yesterday - people are starting to wake up to what they are.

The downside is that's increasing the tory support, as those voters return to their natural home.

Meanwhile, Farage said yesterday that UKIP are going to be second all over the UK - which was then qualified as being "from Birmingham to Hadrian's Wall".

And yet there's not a jot of anything to suggest that UKIP has any chance of taking any Labour seats anywhere, despite Farage's fantasies.

They'll be lucky to hold the two tory-defector seats they have now.

And with a bit of luck, Farage himself will lose to Al Murray.

I hope Reckless loses his seat - don't even care if it's to Labour.

[kaosmark2]

Just read this on the Times website. Again lots of extrapolation and just one poll etc, but it's basically predicting annihilation for the Libdems.

Seems like excessive extrapolation off too little data.

[kaosmark2]

I hope Reckless loses his seat - don't even care if it's to Labour.

I was amused at how he campaigned "fir real change, vote me back in ".

[eFestivals]

Just read this on the Times website. Again lots of extrapolation and just one poll etc, but it's basically predicting annihilation for the Libdems.

I wouldn't take too much from any opinion piece in any paper nowadays.

They've all gone into election mode already, and are all pushing the ideas that they feel will bring the best result to the party they're supporting.

Excluding Scotland, the LibDems will lose out very badly where Labour are the 2nd party, and their vote will hold up much better where the tories are the 2nd party. Anyone who pushes a different line to that is talking up the result they'd like to see.

The Scottish LibDem seats will work a different way because of the different spread of parties, tho I reckon some of them will be a surprise - cos people who support other parties might well vote LibDem to try and keep the SNP out.

[gary1979666]

I was amused at how he campaigned "fir real change, vote me back in ".

That'd be quite funny, unfortunately he did it in all seriousness.

[kaosmark2]

That'd be quite funny, unfortunately he did it in all seriousness.

I know. He's such an idiotic twat (as shown by his party), but it was funny nonetheless.

[gary1979666]

I wouldn't take too much from any opinion piece in any paper nowadays.

They've all gone into election mode already, and are all pushing the ideas that they feel will bring the best result to the party they're supporting.

Excluding Scotland, the LibDems will lose out very badly where Labour are the 2nd party, and their vote will hold up much better where the tories are the 2nd party. Anyone who pushes a different line to that is talking up the result they'd like to see.

The Scottish LibDem seats will work a different way because of the different spread of parties, tho I reckon some of them will be a surprise - cos people who support other parties might well vote LibDem to try and keep the SNP out.

"Vote libdem, so you don't get SNP....so you don't get Tory." These slogans are getting too complicated - don't start posting them on the independence thread - they haven't got the hang of the basic ones yet!

[kaosmark2]

I wouldn't take too much from any opinion piece in any paper nowadays.

They've all gone into election mode already, and are all pushing the ideas that they feel will bring the best result to the party they're supporting.

Excluding Scotland, the LibDems will lose out very badly where Labour are the 2nd party, and their vote will hold up much better where the tories are the 2nd party. Anyone who pushes a different line to that is talking up the result they'd like to see.

The Scottish LibDem seats will work a different way because of the different spread of parties, tho I reckon some of them will be a surprise - cos people who support other parties might well vote LibDem to try and keep the SNP out.

I'd agree with most of this, but I think the liberal seats on Scotland are fairly vulnerable. Less so than some others, but notably. I think where those seats go (am I right in thinking they have 8 Scottish seats?) is the hardest to predict and of major impact on potential coalitions.

[zahidf]

I reckon Lib Dems will end up with 25-30 seats. Enough to form a coalition, more than likely with Labour and with Tim Farron replacing Clegg as leader.

UKIP with 2-5 seats if they are lucky.

Greens with 1-2 seats

SNP with 15-20 seats

Edited February 13, 2015 by zahidf

[kaosmark2]

I reckon Lib Dems will end up with 25-30 seats. Enough to form a coalition, more than likely with Labour and with Tim Farron replacing Clegg as leader.

UKIP with 2-5 seats if they are lucky.

Greens with 1-2 seats

SNP with 15-20 seats

That's what I'd guess, but it's also what I hope for, so I'm not confident there's no bias in my estimates.

Clegg-less liberals in coalition with labour is my ideal. Not realty a fan of farron, but he's a lesser evil.

[eFestivals]

I'd agree with most of this, but I think the liberal seats on Scotland are fairly vulnerable. Less so than some others, but notably. I think where those seats go (am I right in thinking they have 8 Scottish seats?) is the hardest to predict and of major impact on potential coalitions.

oh, I agree that they're vulnerable but also not necessarily easy to predict - that was essentially what I was getting at.

There's a view in Scotland from many that every LibDem seat is toast; I'm merely saying I'm not so sure. Some like Danny Alexander will defo be gone but plenty of others are much less hated.

[eFestivals]

That's what I'd guess

SNP will do much better than 15-20 seats, if for no other reason than so many in Scotland are not actually listening to what's being said, preferring to make it up for themselves out of nothing.

[kaosmark2]

SNP will do much better than 15-20 seats, if for no other reason than so many in Scotland are not actually listening to what's being said, preferring to make it up for themselves out of nothing.

I'm not convinced. I think the SNP voters are just more vocal.

[eFestivals]

I'm not convinced. I think the SNP voters are just more vocal.

there's more than just the vocals tho, there's the solid evidence of those opinion polls.

I'm not particularly thinking that everything about those polls will hold true on election day, but at the same time I'm not dismissing their relevance.

I'm thinking that the SNP will lose a bigger average proportion of their potential voters as no-show-ers than other parties will, but I'm also thinking that in particular seats those other parties will also suffer from no-show-ers as they won't see the point in voting where the result is a forgone conclusion.

They'll also be a number of SNP-ers who will return to the their traditional voting when putting their cross - but the 2011 SG election and the indyref will have lessened this side of things, as those people are now starting to become 'traditional' SNP voters.

What won't happen is much thinking about how to vote. There's too much of a massive culture of "us Scots don't do that" around Scottish voting, rather than any real consideration of what can be voted for.

[kaosmark2]

there's more than just the vocals tho, there's the solid evidence of those opinion polls.

I'm not particularly thinking that everything about those polls will hold true on election day, but at the same time I'm not dismissing their relevance.

I'm thinking that the SNP will lose a bigger average proportion of their potential voters as no-show-ers than other parties will, but I'm also thinking that in particular seats those other parties will also suffer from no-show-ers as they won't see the point in voting where the result is a forgone conclusion.

They'll also be a number of SNP-ers who will return to the their traditional voting when putting their cross - but the 2011 SG election and the indyref will have lessened this side of things, as those people are now starting to become 'traditional' SNP voters.

What won't happen is much thinking about how to vote. There's too much of a massive culture of "us Scots don't do that" around Scottish voting, rather than any real consideration of what can be voted for.

I don't disagree with any of that, I just think that the rise will be large and significant, rather than meteoric as predicted by some polls, due to the SNP ideology and degree of bullying by a small minority of their supporters