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NFR NFC >>>>>>2015


guypjfreak

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ok ok if you really want to know the answer to the sweetie problem (grade B gcse question by the way)

9 sweets in all

5 lemon

4 orange

say they both choose lemon. First pick is 5/9 ( That's a fraction by the way). second pick is 4/9 (because one's been eaten.

Probability both choose lemon is 5/9 x 4/9 = 20/81

say they choose orange - first pick is 4/9 second is 3/9 so together the probability is 4/9 x 3/9 = 12/81

probability they both choose lemon OR both choose orange is 20/81 x 12/81 = 240/6561 = 0.0366 approx.

If you remember probability trees from school maths - you can calculate this using a diagram.....I can't draw this on a pc ...not this late in the day.

But in short.....not very likely at all

Hang on a mo, Dee. I realise you're a mathematician, so I may look a bit silly if I'm wrong, but I disagree.

The chances of both picking lemon are surely 5/9 x 1/2, as there's only 4 lemon left in the bag out of 8 sweets. 4/8 = 1/2.

Likewise, both orange would be 4/9 x 3/8, rather than 3/9.

So both lemon is 5/9 x 1/2 = 5/18

Both orange is 4/9 x 3/8 = 12/72, or 3/18.

Added together to get the total chance of both picking the same gives 8/18, or 4/9!

Or am I wrong?

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Hang on a mo, Dee. I realise you're a mathematician, so I may look a bit silly if I'm wrong, but I disagree.

The chances of both picking lemon are surely 5/9 x 1/2, as there's only 4 lemon left in the bag out of 8 sweets. 4/8 = 1/2.

Likewise, both orange would be 4/9 x 3/8, rather than 3/9.

So both lemon is 5/9 x 1/2 = 5/18

Both orange is 4/9 x 3/8 = 12/72, or 3/18.

Added together to get the total chance of both picking the same gives 8/18, or 4/9!

Or am I wrong?

No you are right and I am a plonker. Combination of trying to answer to quickly whilst tired and using a stupid calculator on my pc. Actually I did realise my mistake at about 1am but really couldn't be arsed to come downstairs in the cold to fire up the pc and edit my post.

I actually failed my A level maths - spent to long in the pub with Digger - but went on to get a maths degree. Give me differential wave equations any day over pointless sweetie scenarios.

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No you are right and I am a plonker. Combination of trying to answer to quickly whilst tired and using a stupid calculator on my pc. Actually I did realise my mistake at about 1am but really couldn't be arsed to come downstairs in the cold to fire up the pc and edit my post.

I actually failed my A level maths - spent to long in the pub with Digger - but went on to get a maths degree. Give me differential wave equations any day over pointless sweetie scenarios.

Why on earth were you thinking about it at 1a.m.? Glad my brain hasn't completely gone to mush, though! I agree about these questions, if I have a bag of sweets, I'll share them round and not care what flavour I'm left with! :)

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Useless fact of the month

In the last 12 months there have only been 3 weeks where on the Countryfile weekly forecast the word 'doubt' or the word 'uncertainty' were NOT used.

Sunday 21st June - will it be one of those without those words?

There is only one way.

All praise the weather gods

NFR NFC

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Morning all. It's clear skies!! I may get the lawn mowed after work!! Have a good one people... And remember it's finbarr Friday so I expect a few giggles after reading this later x

so you're getting it all out later?

the mower, of course...

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Help, sentimental moment alert

Next month I shall be going to my 2nd (hopefully of many) Glastonbury Festivals.

Last year I met some fantastic people, some only briefly, and have chatted to loads via the interweb since....... as well as meeting some out there in the real world.

To someone who does not do festivals the following would sound daft - but all you folks are different - in a very good way. Welcoming, open, honest and caring....... even when you might not be feeling yourself (Friday Finbarr intended).

Thank you - I look forward to seeing some of you again soon, some of you again at GF next month and some of you for the first time.

Love and peace

NFR NFC

xxxxxxxx

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