The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

Fair enough mate, everybody has their opinion on the matter. I didn't see that discussion as i was inactive for years. I just saw the thread and wondered if people had seen those videos, i certainly didn't expect the replies i got....that's politics for you, i wish i'd not posted anything

We tend to be a tad on the robust side in our chats on here. & because you were mistaken for a dirty snipper, some of my good friends take this as a good reason to assume you are crazy & hence it's fine to insult you.

Don't be angry at them. They can't help being c#nts.

[eFestivals]

Of course they do, there will always be some crazies who believe crazy stuff e.g.

"I'm supporting a party of solidarity, of social justice, with a solid record of delivery. You know, the Labour party"

Unbelievable eh?

 

and yet that's factually true.

 

Whereas it's also factually true that the SNP are not a party of solidarity or of social justice - they're not even a party of prioritising what's best for Scotland, as their constitution makes clear - and they have a strong record ... for doing nothing, mainly. They do do a good line in spin tho, that Blair's sidekick would be proud of.

 

You still can't deal with facts, can you?

 

It's only those who claim to love Labour but really hate them that point out they're not perfect, and yet they'll allow not even the slightest fair comment on the imperfect party of their wet dreams (where's the extra £15Bn? )..

 

Me, I realise that there's more than just me in this, and that undelivered high principles aren't worth shit to someone in need.

[Comfy Bean]

Shame to see a new voice being so quickly and rudely shot down on our discussion forum :-)

For the record I do NOT think the vote was rigged but I do believe we are now in when not if territory.

The tory victory at the next ge will be enough to convince the majority of Scots to go with something different in my opinion.

Small sample I know but I have a few mates who were saying during the summer that they voted no as they are labour supporters and were expecting milliband to be pm. They would vote yes if there was an indy ref tomorrow .

We know from the polls that more than just a few have moved from no to yes over the years.

[eFestivals]

We tend to be a tad on the robust side in our chats on here. & because you were mistaken for a dirty snipper, some of my good friends take this as a good reason to assume you are crazy & hence it's fine to insult you.

Don't be angry at them. They can't help being c#nts.

 

hey, even you said he was going with a crazy's craziest line, so it was an easy mistake for russy to make.

 

I didn't mistake him for a snipper, I just tried to put him straight about the vids.

[LJS]

Shame to see a new voice being so quickly and rudely shot down on our discussion forum :-)

For the record I do NOT think the vote was rigged but I do believe we are now in when not if territory.

The tory victory at the next ge will be enough to convince the majority of Scots to go with something different in my opinion.

Small sample I know but I have a few mates who were saying during the summer that they voted no as they are labour supporters and were expecting milliband to be pm. They would vote yes if there was an indy ref tomorrow .

We know from the polls that more than just a few have moved from no to yes over the years.

Guess they must have been intimidated by the evil cybernats.

[eFestivals]

The tory victory at the next ge will be enough to convince the majority of Scots to go with something different in my opinion.

Do you think?

I think they're smart enough to know that you don't escape austerity by deliberately choosing to have a much greater deficit.

Indy's going nowhere until there's answers to the reasons why you lost the last indyref.

Where's the £15Bn?

Edited August 19, 2015 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Guess they must have been intimidated by the evil cybernats.

I found out that the chain of abuse I received on twitter a few weeks back relating to a 3-month old comment about Sturgeon was started by the Wings Over Scotland twitter account. Some of them are just complete and utter nutjobs.

Edited August 19, 2015 by kaosmark2

[LJS]

I found out that the chain of abuse I received on twitter a few weeks back relating to a 3-month old comment about Sturgeon was started by the Wings Over Scotland twitter account. Some of them are just complete and utter nutjobs.

Yeah, & no one else but them dishes out abuse on Twitter.

I find it quite ironic when people on here bang on about vile cybernat abuse on here while happily accusing us snippets of being vile selfish child abusing Nazis.

You tend not to stoop to these depths Kaos so please don't take it personally.

Neil, russy & Barry, feel free to take it as personally as you want.

[kaosmark2]

Yeah, & no one else but them dishes out abuse on Twitter.

I find it quite ironic when people on here bang on about vile cybernat abuse on here while happily accusing us snippets of being vile selfish child abusing Nazis.

You tend not to stoop to these depths Kaos so please don't take it personally.

Neil, russy & Barry, feel free to take it as personally as you want.

It wasn't the abuse (which is common on the web), more the orchestration of it related to a minor old comment. I was amazed at the investment for so little.

 

And if I don't, maybe I need to start treating you more like I treat Barry

Edited August 19, 2015 by kaosmark2

[eFestivals]

Yeah, & no one else but them dishes out abuse on Twitter.

I find it quite ironic when people on here bang on about vile cybernat abuse on here while happily accusing us snippets of being vile selfish child abusing Nazis.

You tend not to stoop to these depths Kaos so please don't take it personally.

Neil, russy & Barry, feel free to take it as personally as you want.

Anything to avoid a discussion.

Where's the £15Bn?

[phantom quartz]

Sorry, I presumed you were one of the usual suspects masquerading under a different username....you had viberunner written all over you.

Apology accepted, that was decent of you. No, i've never heard of viberunner, i know i look like a new member but i've been on here about 10 years, i've just been inactive since 2007 or so and lost my post count when the website changed and only recently came back on here.

[LJS]

Anything to avoid a discussion.

Where's the £15Bn?

 

in your head

[russycarps]

Apology accepted, that was decent of you. No, i've never heard of viberunner, i know i look like a new member but i've been on here about 10 years, i've just been inactive since 2007 or so and lost my post count when the website changed and only recently came back on here.

Thanks. Please do stick around in this thread though. We need some new blood in here.

Please remember to don your thickest skin before entering though!

[kaosmark2]

Please remember to don your thickest skin before entering though!

If you haven't got thick skin, find and kill an orangutan, then wear its skin instead.

[Comfy Bean]

OK Neil I'll bite on this 15 billion. Remind me is this an amount you are predicting Scotland would lose in year one?

Can you confirm this is to the penny and perhaps break it down for my benefit please.

Do you predict we will also lose this same amount in year two?

What about year three? Exact same amount here?

I think we sit at around 150 trillion just now.

In your opinion Neil, will iscotland make any savings from not being part of the kingdom?

I'm thinking trident, Lords, Westminster, the odd war etc.

We already have our own parliament of course and have things like health and education devolved already.

As I said earlier, the continuing success of the tories in England will speed up our independence in my opinion. I think the time to call it will be right after the tories win the next ge.

[russycarps]

OK Neil I'll bite on this 15 billion. Remind me is this an amount you are predicting Scotland would lose in year one?

Can you confirm this is to the penny and perhaps break it down for my benefit please.

Do you predict we will also lose this same amount in year two?

What about year three? Exact same amount here?

I think we sit at around 150 trillion just now.

In your opinion Neil, will iscotland make any savings from not being part of the kingdom?

I'm thinking trident, Lords, Westminster, the odd war etc.

We already have our own parliament of course and have things like health and education devolved already.

As I said earlier, the continuing success of the tories in England will speed up our independence in my opinion. I think the time to call it will be right after the tories win the next ge.

Wow!!

Actually it's more than £15bn now.

I am incredulous you know so little about such a vitally important issue.

Proof (Not that any was needed) that you voted yes with your eyes tightly shut.

Terrifying.

Edited August 20, 2015 by russycarps

[eFestivals]

Anything to avoid a discussion.

Where's the £15Bn?

in your head

Anything to avoid a discussion.

Where's the £15Bn?

[eFestivals]

OK Neil I'll bite on this 15 billion. Remind me is this an amount you are predicting Scotland would lose in year one?

No, that's not my prediction, it's the prediction of the SNP-run Scottish Govt as detailed in GERS.

(OK, OK, I've stretched it from £12Bn - but that's an out-of-date 2-years-behind number. We'll get to see the £15Bn number in a year and three quarters from now).

 

Can you confirm this is to the penny and perhaps break it down for my benefit please.

I see you've not read GERS, or if you have you've failed to understand the document published by your own glorious leader to her predecessor's methodology.

 

Do you predict we will also lose this same amount in year two?

yes, unless you finally find the magic money tree.

 

What about year three? Exact same amount here?

pretty much, yep.

 

I think we sit at around 150 trillion just now.

PMSL .... it's back to the moron's defence, of saying "UK debt bad, SNP much-bigger-debts good".

 

In your opinion Neil, will iscotland make any savings from not being part of the kingdom?

In the opinion of Alex Salmond as detailed in the white paper, it will not.

 

I'm thinking trident, Lords, Westminster, the odd war etc.

I see you didn't ever read the white paper either.

So that's both you and LJS who didn't read the most important political document in Scotland' history while you stand here pretending to know about politics.

 

We already have our own parliament of course and have things like health and education devolved already.

yep, where both health and education are robbed of money that's benefiting the poor, to use that money to benefit the rich.

Presumably that's the type of 'social justice' you're wanting more of, given how much you support that robbery of the poor, and given that you refuse to criticise it?

 

As I said earlier, the continuing success of the tories in England will speed up our independence in my opinion. I think the time to call it will be right after the tories win the next ge.

The problem remains the same.

 

SNP austerity will be far worse than any tory austerity.

 

Where's the £15Bn?

 

[LJS]

In every second post of yours.

[eFestivals]

In every second post of yours.

 

It's in every post of mine from now on, right up until it's in the Scottish Govts income.

 

Until it is, Scotland is financially fucked on any self-funding basis.

 

Scotland is actually in a worse position than Greece.

 

Where's the £15Bn?

Edited August 20, 2015 by eFestivals

[Comfy Bean]

OK Neil I'll bite on this 15 billion. Remind me is this an amount you are predicting Scotland would lose in year one?

Can you confirm this is to the penny and perhaps break it down for my benefit please.

Do you predict we will also lose this same amount in year two?

What about year three? Exact same amount here?

In your opinion Neil, will iscotland make any savings from not being part of the kingdom?

 

 

 

Wow!!

Actually it's more than £15bn now.

 

 

 

OK, OK, I've stretched it from £12Bn

 

 

 

Ok Guys...................thanks for clearing that up 

 

To be clear I am NOT saying that there will not be " costs " when Scotland leaves the Union. That would be idiotic hence no-one on here has ever said it 

 

Without a crystal ball it`s very difficult to say that we would lose £15Billion every year forever and we need to factor in the different direction and political decisions that an indy Scottish Govt would take. We know this would be quite different to what we have today under the Tories. We already have free higher education and prescriptions etc which must seem alien to the Govt thats just been voted in. I thought it was relevant to mention the current debt situation as it is where we are under successive Westminster Govts. It`s almost as if some on here forget the financial mess that we are currently in and prefer to point and laugh at a country who vote against austerity and nukes and for free education etc. Of course " we " should take our share of the trillions with us when we go our own way.

 

Surely it would also be idiotic to say that there would be NO areas where money would be " saved " but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

 

I have read the white paper but again.....carry on, your entitled to tell me what I have and haven`t read if you like 

[eFestivals]

Ok Guys...................thanks for clearing that up 

Look, it doesn't much matter whether it's £15Bn or £12Bn. The point is there's a black hole that's un-plugable. 

 

Without a crystal ball it`s very difficult to say that we would lose £15Billion every year forever

 

Not quite correct.

Without a solid and *realistic* plan - which the SNP do not have, not even the first idea - then it's exceedingly easy (in fact, 100% correct) to say that Scotland is in the shit to £15Bn every year forever.

That only changes if/when there's a solid and *realistic* plan.

The only thing the SNP have said up til now is that they'll somehow (unspecified!) magic into being a economic growth rate for Scotland which has never been seen in the developed world.

Salmond has flagged up some impressive growth in a few newly-independent states, but what he's failed to mention is that their economies seriously crashed beforehand to give that space for recovery (so it's "recovery" and not "growth"!!), and that the recovery they had didn't bring their economies back up to the pre-indy levels. ... so there's nothing for Scotland in those ideas.

 

and we need to factor in the different direction and political decisions that an indy Scottish Govt would take. We know this would be quite different to what we have today under the Tories. We already have free higher education and prescriptions etc which must seem alien to the Govt thats just been voted in.

A different direction does not automatically mean an economically-stronger direction. 

You only get that stronger direction if the plan is the right one, and currently there's no plan at all, meaning that a collapse is more likely than growth (particularly when the real-world factors are considered).

 

I thought it was relevant to mention the current debt situation as it is where we are under successive Westminster Govts. It`s almost as if some on here forget the financial mess that we are currently in and prefer to point and laugh at a country who vote against austerity and nukes and for free education etc. Of course " we " should take our share of the trillions with us when we go our own way.

FFS.

 

Yep, the UK seriously fucked, I don't disagree.

 

Which means that a Scotland which has a significantly bigger (proportional) deficit - as it does - is much more seriously fucked than the UK. This is the point I'm trying to hammer home.

 

It's not me that's forgetting the mess we're in, that's you - who points at the UK's mess and says Scotland will be better when in a much bigger mess!

 

(and Scotland *WOULD* be in a much bigger mess on a proportional basis. GERS makes that exceedingly clear!).

 

The UK is currently near the limit of the deepest mess it can be in while still sustainable. That's the very reason for the austerity you object to, because no country can live beyond its means on a continual basis.

 

And you say that iScotland would be better by living beyond its means waaaay-more than the UK is, and could avoid austerity while doing so.

 

It's laughable - very very laughable - which is why i laugh.

 

If you don't want me to laugh you shouldn't say things which are so very stupidly funny.

 

 

Surely it would also be idiotic to say that there would be NO areas where money would be " saved " but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

there's no doubt some areas where money might be saved, but there's also at least as many areas where costs would be greater.

Salmond tried to dodge many of those in the white paper, by saying that nasty old England would carry those costs for an independent Scotland. As Greece found out you cannot vote yourself other people's money.

 

It's also worth pointing out that (on a proportional basis) Scotland has more "uk govt jobs" within its borders than it should, which means that at the point of indy Scotland immediately finds itself with bigger problems to over-come than it seems like with a view from now.

 

There's not a single factor where indy benefits Scotland just by the fact of being independent. It's the opposite, that it falls deeper in the shit than it's in now.

 

 

I have read the white paper but again.....carry on, your entitled to tell me what I have and haven`t read if you like 

If you've read it, how come you've missed all these things, then?

That there is a huge deficit.

That there is no plan to address it.

That Scottish finances are in a far worst state than whole-UK finances, because of the far higher spending in Scotland (rather than because of an under-developed economy).

That the white paper promised the impossible (other people's money).

That the white paper advocated breaking EU law on many issues (while also commiting to abiding by EU law).

 

All those things existed last September and yet you denied their existence, and Scotland's economic position has deteriorated hugely since that point.

 

Edited August 20, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I see one of the 56 is claiming to have been stitched up, and that she's not a lying cheating bastard.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33999675

 

Still, even if she's that lying cheating bastard, that's still a better thing than all 56 walking into parliament wearing a tribute to a fascist (the wonders of Private Eye, without which we'd never know these things).

Edited August 20, 2015 by eFestivals

[gary1979666]

I guess a simpler starting point is say 2020 when (maybe) Gideon has got the UK to a nil deficit.  That means the government is spending what it takes in tax.  I don't know the figures, but for illustration, let's say it's 400bn in and out.  (There's a different issue of all the debt that's built up, which Iscotland would take a share off).

 

So UK   In     400      Out     (400)

 

Now as London/SE carries the rest of the UK, splitting out Scotland would give:

 

So UK   In     400      Out     (400)

So rUK  In     350      Out     (338)

So iScot In     50        Out     (62)

 

So in order to run a balanced book, then there's some costs to cut.  

[eFestivals]

I guess a simpler starting point is say 2020 when (maybe) Gideon has got the UK to a nil deficit.  That means the government is spending what it takes in tax.  I don't know the figures, but for illustration, let's say it's 400bn in and out.  (There's a different issue of all the debt that's built up, which Iscotland would take a share off).

 

So UK   In     400      Out     (400)

 

Now as London/SE carries the rest of the UK, splitting out Scotland would give:

 

So UK   In     400      Out     (400)

So rUK  In     350      Out     (338)

So iScot In     50        Out     (62)

 

So in order to run a balanced book, then there's some costs to cut.  

 

 

from the 2013-14 GERS:

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/1422

 

The current Scottish deficit is £12.4Bn

(when Scotland is allocated it's geographic oil revenues - the best position it's possible to give Scotland).

 

The Scottish deficit is 8% greater than the whole-UK deficit.

 

That means that if/when the UK removes its deficit, the Scottish deficit (based on the same revenue & downward-adjusted expenditures) would be at least £8Bn.

 

However, Scottish-generated revenues are falling, because of the oil price crash.

 

In the latest GERS, there's £4Bn in off-shore oil revenues. These are expected to fall below £1Bn for the next GERS, so there's (at least) an extra £3Bn of deficit to be added to the current £8Bn.

 

And because of the oil crash, the on-shore oil/gas based revenues are also falling, because of lost jobs and lost company profits. I won't attempt to guess at the value of those, but only a fool would dismiss them as meaningless.

 

(it's not only lost revenues, it's also greater govt expense in supporting those who have lost their jobs - tho as a consequence of the limited info available for [just] Scotland, GERS will hide that extra Scottish expense within the UK welfare-expenditure average, when the whole-UK is not suffering that on-shore oil revenue loss, only the Scottish economy is).

 

As I say, Scotland is in the shit.

 

BUT ... it's not in the shit because the UK is neglecting Scotland, despite the story that the SNP spins and which snippers love to repeat.

 

Scottish economic activity is very much on a parr with UK economic activity, and the issue with Scotland is about Scotland's much greater expenditure than the UK average.

 

It's very easy for the SNP to say "we'll expand Scottish economic activity to address the shortfall", but that pretends there's a magic button someone can press to do that, and that no one else in the world is currently trying to expand their economies to make themselves richer.

 

If that magic button existed both the tories and Labour would have already pressed it.

 

Scotland is in the shit, and not a soul has a plan to address it. Until someone does have a plan, indy is a dead duck.

Edited August 20, 2015 by eFestivals