The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

And continuing with the "how much worse off would Scotland be" theme, I've just come across this (published yesterday):-

Independence would leave Scotland £7bn worse off, oil forecasts show

However, do note that this £7Bn is calculated using "the Edinburgh government’s most optimistic forecasts for oil and gas revenue", so the funding gap is extremely likely to be far greater than that (historically, nearly all UK oil revenue forecasts end up being huge over-estimates).

 

To give that £7Bn some context, that's more than 10% of Scottish Govt revenues, and over 5% of GDP.

And ...

Its analysis of the Scottish government’s latest oil and gas bulletin also found that even if North Sea oil prices bounced back to $100 (£63) a barrel – a scenario considered highly unlikely – its oil revenues would still fall far short of previous estimates.

As I say, indy for Scotland is a dead duck at least until these issues are addressed. There's no anti-austerity when you can't pay the bills.

Edited August 20, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

ON a side note, MacDiarmid lived on the Island of Whalsay, in the Sheltand Isles in the 1930's - his house has been converted into a camping Bod and I have had the pleasure of spending a very pleasant night there.

 

I emerged as anti fascist as ever:)

 

 

Sodom and Hugh MacDiarmid For most of the 1930s the Scots Communist poet Christopher Grieve (Hugh MacDiarmid) lived in Whalsay.In the croft house of Sodom (from the Old Norse suðr-heimr – the southerly homestead) this often tormented genius wrote much of his finest poetry (including On a Raised Beach) and, via the Whalsay post office, conducted a long correspondence with the leading writers and thinkers of his generation. Grieve was called up for war work in 1942 and never returned to Whalsay. His former home is now a camping böd, run by Shetland Amenity Trust.

 

Here is his finest work, " A Drunk man looks a the thistle" read by MacDiarmid himself. It only lasts an hour and 50 minutes.

 

Enjoy

 

[LJS]

from the 2013-14 GERS:

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/1422

 

The current Scottish deficit is £12.4Bn

(when Scotland is allocated it's geographic oil revenues - the best position it's possible to give Scotland).

 

The Scottish deficit is 8% greater than the whole-UK deficit.

 

That means that if/when the UK removes its deficit, the Scottish deficit (based on the same revenue & downward-adjusted expenditures) would be at least £8Bn.

 

However, Scottish-generated revenues are falling, because of the oil price crash.

 

In the latest GERS, there's £4Bn in off-shore oil revenues. These are expected to fall below £1Bn for the next GERS, so there's (at least) an extra £3Bn of deficit to be added to the current £8Bn.

 

And because of the oil crash, the on-shore oil/gas based revenues are also falling, because of lost jobs and lost company profits. I won't attempt to guess at the value of those, but only a fool would dismiss them as meaningless.

 

(it's not only lost revenues, it's also greater govt expense in supporting those who have lost their jobs - tho as a consequence of the limited info available for [just] Scotland, GERS will hide that extra Scottish expense within the UK welfare-expenditure average, when the whole-UK is not suffering that on-shore oil revenue loss, only the Scottish economy is).

 

As I say, Scotland is in the shit.

 

BUT ... it's not in the shit because the UK is neglecting Scotland, despite the story that the SNP spins and which snippers love to repeat.

 

Scottish economic activity is very much on a parr with UK economic activity, and the issue with Scotland is about Scotland's much greater expenditure than the UK average.

 

It's very easy for the SNP to say "we'll expand Scottish economic activity to address the shortfall", but that pretends there's a magic button someone can press to do that, and that no one else in the world is currently trying to expand their economies to make themselves richer.

 

If that magic button existed both the tories and Labour would have already pressed it.

 

Scotland is in the shit, and not a soul has a plan to address it. Until someone does have a plan, indy is a dead duck.

 

 

And continuing with the "how much worse off would Scotland be" theme, I've just come across this (published yesterday):-

Independence would leave Scotland £7bn worse off, oil forecasts show

However, do note that this £7Bn is calculated using "the Edinburgh government’s most optimistic forecasts for oil and gas revenue", so the funding gap is extremely likely to be far greater than that (historically, nearly all UK oil revenue forecasts end up being huge over-estimates).

 

To give that £7Bn some context, that's more than 10% of Scottish Govt revenues, and over 5% of GDP.

And ...

As I say, indy for Scotland is a dead duck at least until these issues are addressed. There's no anti-austerity when you can't pay the bills.

 

 

 

 

How much extra Scotland needs per year is a purely hypothetical question as there is no Indy ref on the horizon once there is & we have a proposed date for Indy, I'll be happy to discuss the exact amount iScotland looks like it will be better or worse off. Until then, you are well aware of why I support Indy & why I believe Scotland would be better off in the long term on its own so you'll just have to make do with that.  I know you disagree but hey, I can live with that.

[eFestivals]

...

the Scots Communist poet Christopher Grieve (Hugh MacDiarmid) ...

PMSL

[eFestivals]

Yep LJS, you might as well believe the fairies will save Scotland from ruin in the long term too.

A belief based in empty baseless hope is not a hope that's worth very much.

[LJS]

PMSL

 

take it you haven't bothered reading about MacDiarmid then?

[eFestivals]

take it you haven't bothered reading about MacDiarmid then?

I was talking about his support for fascism which is 100% accurate, and the SNP Maps paying tribute to the man who was a fascist.

[LJS]

on a similar note here is my conclusive evidence that Ann Widdecombe is a ballroom dancer

 

 

[eFestivals]

Nope, that's just a squirrel.

Again.

[Comfy Bean]

Wow!!

Actually it's more than £15bn now.

I am incredulous you know so little about such a vitally important issue.

 

 

To be fair Russ....nice use of incredulous   What`s a few billion between friends.

 

 OK, I've stretched it from £12Bn

 

 

 

Independence would leave Scotland £7bn worse off, oil forecasts show

However, do note that this £7Bn is calculated using "the Edinburgh government’s most optimistic forecasts for oil and gas revenue"

 

To give that £7Bn some context, that's more than 10% of Scottish Govt revenues, and over 5% of GDP.

 

 

 

 They`ll be dancing in the streets of Raith tonight as the efest community manage to half the annual deficit forecast for a future independent Scotland in a few short hours. Keep it up lads, back in black by this time tomorrow 

[russycarps]

Holy cow you aren't going to believe this...oil prices almost certain to fall BELOW $40 a barrel!

Oil inventories are at their highest level for 80 years! Storage units around the world are full! Oil tankers are backed up at ports everywhere!

China's economy continues to decline and the strong dollar is damaging demand from emerging economies.

Let us all take a moment to give thanks to the brave 55% of scots who, amid a background of hostility and recrimination, voted with their brains and saved scotland from certain doom.

[eFestivals]

 They`ll be dancing in the streets of Raith tonight as the efest community manage to half the annual deficit forecast for a future independent Scotland in a few short hours. Keep it up lads, back in black by this time tomorrow 

they'll be dancing in the street as the whole of the Scottish education budget goes up in smoke, and all schools colleges and unis are shut down due to no money to pay for them?

Wow, I wish I was that smart too.

[gary1979666]

on a similar note here is my conclusive evidence that Ann Widdecombe is a ballroom dancer

 

 

 

 

Nope, that's just a squirrel.

Again.

 

That is many things, but a squirrel is not one of them!!!

[russycarps]

More embarrassment for the amateurish snp.

Thank goodness the torygraph is here to report on the latest snp humiliations, it's hard to keep up!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html

[LJS]

More embarrassment for the amateurish snp.

Thank goodness the torygraph is here to report on the latest snp humiliations, it's hard to keep up!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html

 

only 14 hours after I posted it Russy 

 

As you are well aware I have criticised the SNP for many things, I just prefer to make my own judgement rather than jumping on every single anti SNP story with glee.

Interestingly, in all your excitement at finding the SNP honouring a Fascist (in you head) you missed a story that may well be something the SNP deserve criticism for.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-34022949

Too early to be sure, but I'll be interested to see how it pans out. 

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/topic/172984-general-news-discussion/page-499

 

Tree'd by a snipper. Bet you feel shit!!!

[eFestivals]

only 14 hours after I posted it Russy 

 

erm ... the link you gave is not about that story, but about S-Lab's new leader.

[LJS]

More embarrassment for the amateurish snp.

Thank goodness the torygraph is here to report on the latest snp humiliations, it's hard to keep up!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11816095/EU-suspends-45m-cash-for-Scotland-over-irregularities.html

 

 

erm ... the link you gave is not about that story, but about S-Lab's new leader.

 

I never thought i'd say this but you are right!!!

 

 

Don't know how that happened - I didn't even read that peice about Kezia Dugdale!!. The story I meant to link to was of course the one Russy found some hours later

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34015720

[eFestivals]

Don't know how that happened - I didn't even read that peice about Kezia Dugdale!!.

I did wonder what you were on about when I followed that link yesterday.

 

The story I meant to link to was of course the one Russy found some hours later

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34015720

In the complete opposite of what you love to claim for me, I'm far from ready to jump on the SNP on the basis of that story.

It doesn't say very much at all, just that the funding has been cut for an unclear reason.

I'll get back to you when I've had a chance to find out what it's really about.

[LJS]

Neil posted this in the General News thread - I thought it was more appropriate to reply here

 

 

So you say Scotland won't be significantly poorer, then. It can only be one or the other.

 

In which case you'll need to tell me where the extra £15Bn is. If you don't think Scotland will be poorer you must know where the money is, so where is it?

 

 

 Firstly because you mentioned £15bn, I shall refer you to my earlier answer....

 

 

 

 

How much extra Scotland needs per year is a purely hypothetical question as there is no Indy ref on the horizon once there is & we have a proposed date for Indy, I'll be happy to discuss the exact amount iScotland looks like it will be better or worse off. Until then, you are well aware of why I support Indy & why I believe Scotland would be better off in the long term on its own so you'll just have to make do with that.  I know you disagree but hey, I can live with that.

 

Secondly, I don't have to come up with anything. The SNP has to come up with something if it gets another referendum & the something it needs to come up with is a more convincing argument for the viability of an independent Scotland. Not to convince me but to convince about 10-20% of those who voted "NO"

 

If they don't do this, they will lose that referendum too & that probably will be that for a generation or so

Edited August 23, 2015 by LJS

[russycarps]

North sea oil revenue at an all time low in the first quarter of this year at £168m in tax receipts, down from £969m in the same period of last year.

Thankfully, within the strength of the UK, this shock can be comfortably absorbed.

You can draw your own conclusion as to how an independent scotland would cope.

Edited August 24, 2015 by russycarps

[eFestivals]

Secondly, I don't have to come up with anything.

not even a reason for why you believe what you do...?

Most people have beliefs based in substance. You're admitting here that you don't.

You're more than welcome to hold vacuous views if you wish, but at least be smart enough to realise that's what they are.

If they're not vacuous, they'll be a reason. Perhaps you might want to reconsider your answer and provide a reason?

Otherwise I can dismiss all your future words as simply the vacuous you've said here they are.

[eFestivals]

I see today's news is all abut how someone is biased, according to to the paid employee and corrupt lobbyist of Murdoch, whose party had no policies to address the problems of the British press (unlike another party).

That would be bad enough, but to hail the declaration of biasedess as the latest great truth really takes the biscuit.

And of course the biased statements of a campaigning politician asserting evidence-free opinion as fact and which would have led Scotland to ruin is not a crime against Scotland.

Edited August 24, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

North sea oil revenue at an all time low in the first quarter of this year at £168m in tax receipts, down from £969m in the same period of last year.

Thankfully, within the strength of the UK, this shock can be comfortably absorbed.

You can draw your own conclusion as to how an independent scotland would cope.

 

[eFestivals]

hey LJS, you know you were moaning the other day about you're disappointed about how the SNP have done naff all for the last 5 years despiute being a majoroity govt?

 

Well, apparently, if you want anything done in Scotland by the SNP, the best answer is to employ one of their bigwigs - cos that way you can make anything you want happen.

 

Perhaps you should get saving, so you have the money to bribe them to do your bidding...? Perhaps you can buy another indyref off them...?

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13621540.Second_SNP_minister_dragged_into_T_in_the_Park_cronyism_row/

Edited August 24, 2015 by eFestivals

[LJS]

not even a reason for why you believe what you do...?

Most people have beliefs based in substance. You're admitting here that you don't.

You're more than welcome to hold vacuous views if you wish, but at least be smart enough to realise that's what they are.

If they're not vacuous, they'll be a reason. Perhaps you might want to reconsider your answer and provide a reason?

Otherwise I can dismiss all your future words as simply the vacuous you've said here they are.

 

I have given my reasons why I am pro Indy in exhaustive detail on countless occasions. As regards your last point you have been regarding  my views as vacuous ( & worse) for months so I'm not quite sure what the change would be there.

 

I see today's news is all abut how someone is biased, according to to the paid employee and corrupt lobbyist of Murdoch, whose party had no policies to address the problems of the British press (unlike another party).

That would be bad enough, but to hail the declaration of biasedess as the latest great truth really takes the biscuit.

And of course the biased statements of a campaigning politician asserting evidence-free opinion as fact and which would have led Scotland to ruin is not a crime against Scotland.

 

The last poll I saw (Panelbase in January paid for by the bishop of Bath but with a scrupulously fair question) saw a small majority (45 to 42% of those with an opinion agreeing with Mr Salmond that the BBC was biased. I tend to agree myself & indeed I know a number of people who previously held the Beeb in high regard who were similarly disappointed. 

 

ON a more general point, politicians of all parties have always complained that the BBC is biased against them. Quite why you should single out Eck for criticism on this I'm not sure... Oh, wait a minute, I am sure, you miss no opportunity to attack Eck cos you hate him & the SNP with an obsessive irrationality.

 

hey LJS, you know you were moaning the other day about you're disappointed about how the SNP have done naff all for the last 5 years despiute being a majoroity govt?

 

Well, apparently, if you want anything done in Scotland by the SNP, the best answer is to employ one of their bigwigs - cos that way you can make anything you want happen.

 

Perhaps you should get saving, so you have the money to bribe them to do your bidding...? Perhaps you can buy another indyref off them...?

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13621540.Second_SNP_minister_dragged_into_T_in_the_Park_cronyism_row/

 

Gosh 85,000 punters are about to descend on a pretty rural & the Transport Minister meets with the organisers. I think the scandal would  be if he didn't! It's far from clear what is actually being alleged here. there is no suggestion in the article that there was any wrongdoing at all. 

 

But hey, don't let that stop you - It never has before.