UK Politics

[fraybentos1]

turnout for these things are so low too, makes it harder to poll. General election will be over double the turnout 

[steviewevie]

and here's same for West Mids Andy Street...

2024 West Midlands mayoral election - Wikipedia

 

 

[steviewevie]

and these are for mayoral elections which probably don't get the same amount of attention/funding etc as the national polls...it isn't an exact science of course but they are getting better...but labour lead seems to vary between 15 and 25% which is quite a big difference.

What would worry me in Labour, and will give Tories hope, is the amount of Don't Knows or Undecideds which mostly seem to be people who voted Tory last time. If Tories can win them back, and also win back some who are thinking of voting reform/labour with tax cut promises or national service for the woke youth or promises of a referendum on leaving the ECHR or whatever they're thinking of next, then it could actually be a lot closer than polls suggest.

 

Edited May 28, 2024 by steviewevie

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and these are for mayoral elections which probably don't get the same amount of attention/funding etc as the national polls...it isn't an exact science of course but they are getting better...but labour lead seems to vary between 15 and 25% which is quite a big difference.

What would worry me in Labour, and will give Tories hope, is the amount of Don't Knows or Undecideds which mostly seem to be people who voted Tory last time. If Tories can win them back, and also win back some who are thinking of voting reform/labour with tax cut promises or national service for the woke youth or promises of a referendum on leaving the ECHR or whatever they're thinking of next, then it could actually be a lot closer than polls suggest.

 

Around 1.2 million of the DK have died since 2019, so the gap is probably accurate

[lazyred]

11 hours ago, Neil said:

80 old bill to be wasted looking into criminal conduct in the post office horizon thing not sure that's a good use of resources,  cos its c*ck up and not malicious.

The IT was a c*ck up, the cover up and prosecutions were malicious. I hope at least perjury charges can be brought for the prosecution witnesses. 

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

Rachel Reeves about to make a speech setting out Labour's radical socialist policies.

[steviewevie]

I know why she's doing it, but at same time Reeves ruling out any tax rises is pretty bloody stupid. I guess they could do things with thresholds etc.

[fraybentos1]

I get the Tories are desperately trying to shore up their oldie vote and get them out voting so they don't get totally wiped out. But, the latest announcements have still really wound me up. Genuinely perplexed why anyone under 60 would vote Tory.

 

As if pensioners haven't had it good enough compared to working people.

[lost]

I'm sure there will be tax rises. You just won't find out what they are until after the election.

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I know why she's doing it, but at same time Reeves ruling out any tax rises is pretty bloody stupid. I guess they could do things with thresholds etc.

 

this doesn't add up with the whole no austerity and fiscal rules thing. She isn't being honest.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, lost said:

I'm sure there will be tax rises. You just won't find out what they are until after the election.

yes, it will be a "oh we didn't know things were this bad, we'll have to make some hard choices now...spending cuts or tax rises..."

[steviewevie]

some big polls coming out today...expect a big narrowing of the gap and everyone to lose their sh*t.

[steviewevie]

meanwhile

[steviewevie]

so media savvy

[fraybentos1]

33 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

some big polls coming out today...expect a big narrowing of the gap and everyone to lose their sh*t.

how many polls are coming today do u know?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

how many polls are coming today do u know?

Survation and Redfield that I know of, big ones though.

 

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

[lost]

Will always be remembered for all that PIE stuff.

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, lost said:

Will always be remembered for all that PIE stuff.

well I'd never even heard of any of that, so maybe not.

[steviewevie]

🤔

[steviewevie]

the polling thingy...some bloke posted this:

 

Squeeze question is asking Don't Knows who they would pick if forced to, Re-Weighting is using some method to estimate who they would vote for. Both Yellow and Green pollsters usually give smaller Labour leads.

[steviewevie]

[Neil]

2 hours ago, lost said:

Will always be remembered for all that PIE stuff.

people tend to forget that pie was so mainstream at the time it placed adverts in the times.