Football 2015/16

[eFestivals]

didn't watch last night's match, so how did Sterling do? Any good?

[thetime]

didn't watch last night's match, so how did Sterling do? Any good?

Not really, although it was his first game so wasn't expecting much.

City were good though, best of the leading contenders weekend one. Although West Brom made it easy for them by playing 2 up top.

Edited August 11, 2015 by thetime

[pink_triangle]

City looked solid, but not spectacular. I think City have been underrated this season with many predicting 4th. I think the likes of Kompany and Yaya have been written off too early. While there often an assumption that new signing eg Mangala and Fernando are duds after one season, when history tells us players often need time to adapt. I would be surprised if city arent strong title challengers this season, they edge chelsea as favoutites to win in my view.

[TheGayTent]

didn't watch last night's match, so how did Sterling do? Any good?

no

[eFestivals]

I think City have been underrated this season with many predicting 4th.

 

I think I did that too, but yeah, I know what you mean. I've even seen people suggest they'll lose out on a top 4 place to Liverpool.

 

There's an idea that this season is particularly unpredictable for who will come where (that i've bought into too), but perhaps that's just a bit too daft. After all, there's not normally a big switch-around in the strengths of teams, it's more often a slow-build and a slow-fade.

 

Then again, Arsenal have been slowly improving and City fell away a little last season and don't seem particularly stronger this year, whilst Utd have (again) gone on the sort of spending spree that should see a team that finished 4th jump up a few places - tho that didn't do them too much good last season.

 

And I'm back to 'unpredictable', again.

[thetime]

City looked solid, but not spectacular. I think City have been underrated this season with many predicting 4th. I think the likes of Kompany and Yaya have been written off too early. While there often an assumption that new signing eg Mangala and Fernando are duds after one season, when history tells us players often need time to adapt. I would be surprised if city arent strong title challengers this season, they edge chelsea as favoutites to win in my view.

If they can keep aguero fit for the season they will win it with ease.

City are a bit short up top, selling jovetic and dzeko and I don't see bony as a top 4 striker.

Saying that all the top teams seem to be struggling in the striker department this season.

Chelsea have Costa but then Remy and falcao, certainly not top quality if last season is to go by. Arsenal are in a similar situation with only giroud and he isn't really top quality either, same with United.

Only Liverpool have a fair few strikers, all but sturridge are not the standard of a top team though.

Like centre backs, a massive shortage of top strikers available.

Edited August 11, 2015 by thetime

[eFestivals]

If they can keep aguero fir for the season they will win it with ease.

City are a bit short up top, selling jovetic and dzeko and I don't see bony as a top 4 striker.

Saying that all the top teams seem to be struggling in the striker department this season.

Chelsea have Costa but then Remy and falcao, certainly not top quality if last season is to go by. Arsenal are in a similar situation with only giroud and he isn't really top quality either, same with United.

 

I don't much disagree with that, and yet.... Arsenal have Sanchez who out-scored Giroud last season and most people expect even better from him this season, while Walcott's stats suggest he's likely to outscore Giroud too if he's given the chances to do it.

 

I think it's a bit too easy for anyone to come up with ideas that suit the prediction they've already decided on, when a less biased take on things can put forwards alternative ideas that stand up - in theory - just as well.

 

The great skills of those players in the 'top teams' isn't much in doubt, but whether they deliver them is.

Edited August 11, 2015 by eFestivals

[pink_triangle]

 

I don't much disagree with that, and yet.... Arsenal have Sanchez who out-scored Giroud last season and most people expect even better from him this season, while Walcott's stats suggest he's likely to outscore Giroud too if he's given the chances to do it.

 

I think it's a bit too easy for anyone to come up with ideas that suit the prediction they've already decided on, when a less biased take on things can put forwards alternative ideas that stand up - in theory - just as well.

 

The great skills of those players in the 'top teams' isn't much in doubt, but whether they deliver them is.

I would have thought when most people make predictions they consider the factor involved to come up with this decision, as opposed to choosing a team and then working backwards. While the big teams are full of players with great skill, there is quite a significant difference in the level these players can reach even if perforing at their maximum.

As for the stats that suggest Walcott will score more than Giroud if given the opportunity, what stats are these? 

[TheGayTent]

If Walcott is going to score anywhere near the amount Giroud has, he first has to be fit. His injury record over the last 2 seasons has been pretty poor.

[ThomThomDrum]

One game down and some are now suggesting City have the potential to win this at ease? 

 

Ha

[eFestivals]

I would have thought when most people make predictions they consider the factor involved to come up with this decision, as opposed to choosing a team and then working backwards. While the big teams are full of players with great skill, there is quite a significant difference in the level these players can reach even if perforing at their maximum.

the conclusion a person comes to is dependent on the weighting they give to each player's skills, where that weighting is often skewed by the prejudices of the person making the consideration rather than the abilities of the players being considered.

 

As easy examples, Utd fans were convinced that Di Maria would have Utd flying; likewise with Arsenal fans and Ozil. While those fans can point at things to justify those ideas, it doesn't alter the fact that the reality has been lesser.

 

 

as for the stats that suggest Walcott will score more than Giroud if given the opportunity, what stats are these?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivier_Giroud#Club

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Walcott#Club

 

(do remember that mostly Walcott has been played wide when he's caused those stats).

[eFestivals]

If Walcott is going to score anywhere near the amount Giroud has, he first has to be fit. His injury record over the last 2 seasons has been pretty poor.

 

his injury record over the last 2 seasons has been one over-a-year injury. It happens.

 

But yes, I do agree with you. He's not going to get great stats without staying fit and also having enough game time to keep him at his best.

[pink_triangle]

 

where that weighting is often skewed by the prejudices of the person making the consideration rather than the abilities of the players being considered.

 

As easy examples, Utd fans were convinced that Di Maria would have Utd flying; likewise with Arsenal fans and Ozil. While those fans can point at things to justify those ideas, it doesn't alter the fact that the reality has been lesser.

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivier_Giroud#Club

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Walcott#Club

 

(do remember that mostly Walcott has been played wide when he's caused those stats).

There were plenty of non Man Utd and Arsenal fans who came to the same predictions about those players. People predict how a players will come off due to their previouss record, sometimes we get them right and sometimes we dont. To me they are just a case of people making incorrect predictions. You can make arguments for lots of things happening if factor A, B and C go in a particular direction. However i think its fun sometimes for people to stick their neck on the line, rather than giving wishy washy predictions that cover every eventuality.

I looked at those stats and I still am not interpreting them as showing that Walcott would outscore Giroud if fit, but that may be my maths.

[eFestivals]

I looked at those stats and I still am not interpreting them as showing that Walcott would outscore Giroud if fit, but that may be my maths.

 

Walcott's best of 14 from 32 was a few years ago, but the last two seasons have been pretty much destroyed by his long ligament injury, and that 14 from 32 was where he mostly played out wide.

 

Giroud's three years are Arsenal are very much within the same ballpark as that, tho very slightly better. But he's been played as the striker.

 

If Walcott got the same game chances as Giroud I'm pretty confident that Walcott would out-score Giroud, tho I'm far from sure that Arsenal would pick up as many points via those greater goals, as Walcott is more likely to get a number of goals against weak opposition whilst doing less well against the tougher teams than Giroud might.

[kaosmark2]

people to stick their neck on the line, rather than giving wishy washy predictions that cover every eventuality.

City

Chelsea

Arsenal

Man U

 

Liverpool

Spurs

Stoke

 

Swansea

Palace

Newcastle

West Brom

Everton

Southampton

Bournemouth

West Ham

Leicester

Villa

 

Norwich

Sunderland

Watford

 

Lower mid-table is almost always hardest to call, most fans think their club is the best of the 10th-15th likely finishers.

 

I really think Stoke and Swansea look very strong squad-wise. Few major outgoings and some really exciting signings. I know Everton had the Europa last season, but I can't see them building to anything particularly impressive, Southampton and West Ham will struggle with the Europa, even if they go out early that's a psychological blow rather than a fitness one. It's easy to call Watford going down and the 2 that'll join them is the difficult one.

 

 

Top-wise, everyone seems to agree Man U in 4th, but it seems to be only me and PT thinking City are worth a damn. They're always weaker at defending titles, as PT said they have players that should have a stronger 2nd season than 1st, and their previous big players seem to have been written off already after a bad 6 months (with Yaya having had a ACoN in the middle of the season). I'd been trying to decide all summer whether I thought City or Arsenal would win it, and depending on remaining transfer activity I may change my mind again, but I don't think Chelsea will retain, while I do think they'll get 2nd whoever deposes them.

[mjsell]

Chelsea

Arsenal

City

United

Liverpool

Spurs

Everton

Swansea

Stoke

Palace

Southampton

West Ham

Newcastle

Villa

Leicester

Bournemouth

West brom

Watford

Norwich

Sunderland

Thoughts after week 1

[pink_triangle]

 

One game down and some are now suggesting City have the potential to win this at ease? 

 

Ha

I dont think anyone will be winning the title with ease. I do still think city have the best team, when at their best play the best football and that this chelsea team is one of the most overrated of recent champions. Feel free to quote this in May when chelsea win the league by 15 points and city come 5th!!

[thegremlin_1999]

Chelsea

City

Arsenal

Utd

 

Spuds

Liverpool

Southampton

 

Swansea

Stoke

Everton

Newcastle

West Ham

Palace

West Brom

Leicester

Villa

Bournemouth

 

Norwich

Sunderland

Watford

 

Why are folk expecting Palace to be top mid-table?  They're surely a mid-ground team at best...

 

I think I've picked Bournemouth to survive purely on a misguided romanticism if I'm honest... 

[kaosmark2]

Why are folk expecting Palace to be top mid-table?  They're surely a mid-ground team at best...

 

I think I've picked Bournemouth to survive purely on a misguided romanticism if I'm honest... 

That's where they finished last season and they've now added Cabaye who is class.

 

I've picked them to survive on the grounds that I'm pretty sure there's 4 or 5 worse teams.

[fred quimby]

West Ham will struggle with the Europa, 

[fred quimby]

West Ham will struggle with the Europa, 

 

 

 

 

[kaosmark2]

Oh yeah

[pink_triangle]

Im not convinced Stoke will do as well as many are suggesting. While they have bought in some nice players, Im not sure that will make them more effective in getting points. I suspect they may end up sacraficing some points in favour of some more interesting football and for a team like stoke (probably always going to finish in the middle third of the table, thats probably a sacrafice worth taking.

[kaosmark2]

Im not convinced Stoke will do as well as many are suggesting. While they have bought in some nice players, Im not sure that will make them more effective in getting points. I suspect they may end up sacraficing some points in favour of some more interesting football and for a team like stoke (probably always going to finish in the middle third of the table, thats probably a sacrafice worth taking.

Who else doesn't have equivalent flaws? Swansea? Southampton? Everton? Outside of the established top 6 every team has flaws that's likely to cost them a number of points. There's always a couple of teams that have a really good season and some that have worse. Predicting Stoke to have a fairly good season given every other top-half team of the last two seasons has either regressed or is in the Europa doesn't seem outrageous.

[Gucci Piggy]

I don't much disagree with that, and yet.... Arsenal have Sanchez who out-scored Giroud last season and most people expect even better from him this season, while Walcott's stats suggest he's likely to outscore Giroud too if he's given the chances to do it.

I think it's a bit too easy for anyone to come up with ideas that suit the prediction they've already decided on, when a less biased take on things can put forwards alternative ideas that stand up - in theory - just as well.

The great skills of those players in the 'top teams' isn't much in doubt, but whether they deliver them is.

While Giroud's fit Walcott won't be first choice striker. While he may score more, he's a much worse all round player in that position. Giroud is exceptional at holding the ball up and bringing others into play, and Walcott playing there would take lots of goals away from the likes of Sanchez, Ramsey, Özil and Cazorla.

Walcott would probably score a similar amount to Giroud from right wing anyway if they both got a similar amount of games.

It's why I don't think bringing in a top striker would improve Arsenal as much as some people think. Whilst a Benzema or a Lewandowski may get 10 more Foals than Giroud, they'd probably take goals away from other players.

Obviously they still need a striker, though, because Giroud can't be relied on to score at a good rate for a whole season.