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Weather thread 2015


Swine_Glasto2014

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Without getting too blasé, this is shaping up to be another 2013, which I thought was about as good as festival weather gets.

Don't count your chickens yet - this run has quite a wet Sunday

Still content enough with that... roll on the ensembles

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Without getting too blasé, this is shaping up to be another 2013, which I thought was about as good as festival weather gets.

I would be very happy with conditions like that, or 2008, 2009, both of which were a mixed bag month like we've had this year.

 

We've missed out on there being about 10 days of it pissing it down in the run up for the site to have any issues with being waterlogged (not to mention no winter floods) for what rain does fall.  I think timing and volume is all that matters now.  

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Here's all days. As mentioned by others above, Sunday has downgraded a little but Weds to Saturday still looking brilliant.



Weds: Dry, high of 21C. Good start.

Thurs: Dry, high of 22. Going well.  (Still got highs of 19 at midnight so not chilly)

Friday: Very light showers showing for the afternoon - literally nothing to pay any attention to. Pressure a bit lower than it was in the last run. Maximum temperatures of 21 (down a couple of degrees from earlier).

Saturday: No rain whatsover. Pressure building again (supporting the last run). Maximum temperatures of 20 (down a couple of degrees from earlier).

Sunday: This is where we have a downgrade. There is a dangerous looking band of rain hitting the north-west from midnight which we wouldn't want to track south. At present the worst of that hits the north but there is rain forecast for Glasto from early afternoon until late evening. Not a huge amount for Glasto, but there is the threat of that precipitation coming in further south. Maximum temperatures of 22 (down a couple of degrees from earlier).

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This is looking good, temps are starting to look a lot better too...

 

 

24 on Thursday would be nice. I don't mind it being a bit cooler on the weekend, but it's nice to have Wednesday and Thursday as the warmer days.

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At present the worst of that hits the north but there is rain forecast for Glasto from early afternoon until late evening. Not a huge amount for Glasto, but there is the threat of that precipitation coming in further south. 

 

It wouldn't dare rain for Lionel, surely.

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Here's all days. As mentioned by others above, Sunday has downgraded a little but Weds to Saturday still looking brilliant.

Weds: Dry, high of 21C. Good start.

Thurs: Dry, high of 22. Going well.  (Still got highs of 19 at midnight so not chilly)

Friday: Very light showers showing for the afternoon - literally nothing to pay any attention to. Pressure a bit lower than it was in the last run. Maximum temperatures of 21 (down a couple of degrees from earlier).

Saturday: No rain whatsover. Pressure building again (supporting the last run). Maximum temperatures of 20 (down a couple of degrees from earlier).

Sunday: This is where we have a downgrade. There is a dangerous looking band of rain hitting the north-west from midnight which we wouldn't want to track south. At present the worst of that hits the north but there is rain forecast for Glasto from early afternoon until late evening. Not a huge amount for Glasto, but there is the threat of that precipitation coming in further south. Maximum temperatures of 22 (down a couple of degrees from earlier).

This just This

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Saving grace about Sunday's slight turn for the worse is that it's still a week off so clearly the hardest to predict. A few hours of rain at the arse end of the weekend is worth taking for the remainder to be dry.

 

Also it would take something fairly biblical on the last day to destroy the worn-in ground by then. Even on the Saturday last year (before the rain), it was almost back to trainers after the storm on Friday.

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As it is Sunday and to compliment the Countryfile forecast I have deployed the dog to conduct a series of site observations commencing at 0800Z210615.  Once the dog was calibrated after dropping what looked like a baby seal behind him (in hindsight a fresh bone was not a great idea yesterday) observations commenced.  we had 8/8 Oktas and a fresh breeze from the direction of the Tor, enough to move the ears but not a full on flap.

Ground conditions along the North side of the site are dry and hard, no sign of imprint from the fat feckers paws and so an estimated California Bearing Ratio of CBR 1 on the tracks, CBR2 off track.

Temperature and humidity was measured by the patent big dog panting index, today we were panting but not slobbering indicating indirect solar radiation and black body ansorption somewhat less than perfect but definitely not equilibrium in accordance with the intent of Kirchhoff and Planck.

The continuing dry weather was demonstrated by the dessicated nature of the rabbit scut that the dirty bugger kept eating when he thought I wasn't looking.  The Buzzards weren't thermalling, too early for rising air and maybe a Sunday lay in.

All in all, satisfactory observations with an improving outlook today.  The static observations of the rest of the instruments on return show that the brick on a string is dry but waving about and the water buts are nearly empty.

THIS IS WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT!!!!

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Saving grace about Sunday's slight turn for the worse is that it's still a week off so clearly the hardest to predict. A few hours of rain at the arse end of the weekend is worth taking for the remainder to be dry.

 

Also it would take something fairly biblical on the last day to destroy the worn-in ground by then. Even on the Saturday last year (before the rain), it was almost back to trainers after the storm on Friday.

 

Also, I remember at one point the GFS predicted the low pressure to come in on Weds, then the weekend, now its Sunday - so hopefully that pattern means it'll shift a little bit more between now and the fest. 

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Yeah latest GFS is a bit worse, but hopefully that'll improve with the 12z

To think only a week back we were all sagely nodding about how the nighttime runs were the pessimistic ones

Now I don't dare think such things. Just on tenterhooks like a young lover about to propose waiting for the right moment to blurt it out and take the plunge - darling - will we need wellies?

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