UK Politics

[fraybentos1]

16 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

And whilst Starmer has indeed been lucky with Johnson and partygate, Truss and her budget, Sunak and his shitness, SNP dodginess, inflation and cost of living etc..it isn't all luck. It was considered almost impossible for them to win the next election back in 2019, Starmer was seen as another Kinnock, an interim leader carrying them in opposition, and here we are with it looking like a landslide. What he has shown is a ruthless steeliness in pursuit of power, a lot of this probably actually coming from Morgan McSweeney than Starmer himself. They have been smart with how to win in places where they need to win. How they will do in power is another thing, the task is massive, and there is not a lot of love or trust out there so someone like Farage could easily come along and mop up all the disillusioned voters with the Greens further eroding labour support from the left. 

I think this sums it up fairly well. It is clear that Labour's honeymoon period is going to be very short. A lot depends on if the Tories get their act together or take a decade to squabble before then getting a grip.

[steviewevie]

 

[mattiloy]

47 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

And whilst Starmer has indeed been lucky with Johnson and partygate, Truss and her budget, Sunak and his shitness, SNP dodginess, inflation and cost of living etc..it isn't all luck. It was considered almost impossible for them to win the next election back in 2019, Starmer was seen as another Kinnock, an interim leader carrying them in opposition, and here we are with it looking like a landslide. What he has shown is a ruthless steeliness in pursuit of power, a lot of this probably actually coming from Morgan McSweeney than Starmer himself. They have been smart with how to win in places where they need to win. How they will do in power is another thing, the task is massive, and there is not a lot of love or trust out there so someone like Farage could easily come along and mop up all the disillusioned voters with the Greens further eroding labour support from the left. 

 

Its all luck. McSweeney’s last turn i  british politics pre Starmer was heading up Liz Kendall’s campaign in the 2015 where she got a big old 4%.

 

Now winning when its an open goal and making your employer and his team universally disliked before they even get into power hardly makes him svengali.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

 

Its all luck. McSweeney’s last turn i  british politics pre Starmer was heading up Liz Kendall’s campaign in the 2015 where she got a big old 4%.

 

Now winning when its an open goal and making your employer and his team universally disliked before they even get into power hardly makes him svengali.

it really isn't just luck, although I agree that is definitely a big part of it. I know as a starmer hater you will always have this to console yourself with, but it isn't true. They have had to work at persuading all those red wall voters they lost to the tories in 2019 along with a whole load of tory voters in other areas that they can vote for labour, and at same time keep traditional labour voters on board.

There are hardly any popular politicians out there...cynicism and distrust is high.

 

[steviewevie]

It's easy to say it is all just luck and any other leader would have done the same or better, it happened also with Corbyn...people who argue that any other leader could have won that election in 2017. Easy to say, and impossible to prove.

[steviewevie]

Not another one.

 

When Labour win with a majority of just a 100 it will be seen as a massive Tory win.

[lazyred]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

And whilst Starmer has indeed been lucky with Johnson and partygate, Truss and her budget, Sunak and his shitness, SNP dodginess, inflation and cost of living etc..it isn't all luck. It was considered almost impossible for them to win the next election back in 2019, Starmer was seen as another Kinnock, an interim leader carrying them in opposition, and here we are with it looking like a landslide. What he has shown is a ruthless steeliness in pursuit of power, a lot of this probably actually coming from Morgan McSweeney than Starmer himself. They have been smart with how to win in places where they need to win. How they will do in power is another thing, the task is massive, and there is not a lot of love or trust out there so someone like Farage could easily come along and mop up all the disillusioned voters with the Greens further eroding labour support from the left. 

Spot on. Labour need a record swing to get a majority of 1. The Tory vote has collapsed because people aren't scared of Labour.

[lazyred]

The Guardian comment on that More in Common poll highlights again how many seats could go either way.

 

"Overall, there are 113 seats with a majority less than 5%, where a last minute swing could change the results. There are 52 seats in a statistical tie with the projected winner less than 2 percentage points ahead of their closest rival – these seats are too close to call. These include seven seats where members of the cabinet, including potential Leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, are defending their seats and also seats such as Bristol Central where shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire faces a tight battle against Greens’ co-leader Carla Denyer …

 

The model also finds 99 marginal Conservative seats where control of the seat is decided by less than 5 percentage points. If the Tories were to win all of these marginal seats, the seat totals would sit at 177 for the Conservatives, 393 for Labour and 41 for the Liberal Democrats. If undecided voters don’t break for the Conservatives in the last day of the campaign, they could be left with as few as 78 seats."

[mattiloy]

3 minutes ago, lazyred said:

Spot on. Labour need a record swing to get a majority of 1. The Tory vote has collapsed because people aren't scared of Labour.

Yes Lazyblue. The polls suddenly shifting immediately after partygate, boris resigning and truss and never recovering is just a coincidence.

[lazyred]

Just now, mattiloy said:

Yes Lazyblue. The polls suddenly shifting immediately after partygate, boris resigning and truss and never recovering is just a coincidence.

And yet a poll was posted here the other day showing Boris would still beat Corbyn.

[mattiloy]

8 minutes ago, lazyred said:

And yet a poll was posted here the other day showing Boris would still beat Corbyn.

I’d imagine basically all of that reform vote would swing to boris, so he’d probs beat Starmer too.

[steviewevie]

Corbyn was lucky in 2017 with May and her social care dementia tax and subsequent uturn, her sh*t response to Grenfell and all round sh*t maybot campaigning thing...but at same time it wasn't all luck.

etc.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I’d imagine basically all of that reform vote would swing to boris, so he’d probs beat Starmer too.

probs wouldn't

[lazyred]

7 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

I’d imagine basically all of that reform vote would swing to boris, so he’d probs beat Starmer too.

Maybe he would but Starmer can attract ex Tory centrist voters, Corbyn repels them.

Starmer is still mistrusted because he identified with Corbyn but he's neutralised some of the negatives. Look at the sh*t the Tories are throwing on tax, defence, immigration, reversing brexit etc. None if it is sticking (I hope) because Labour have targeted these issues for change.

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, lazyred said:

Maybe he would but Starmer can attract ex Tory centrist voters, Corbyn repels them.

Starmer is still mistrusted because he identified with Corbyn but he's neutralised some of the negatives. Look at the sh*t the Tories are throwing on tax, defence, immigration, reversing brexit etc. None if it is sticking (I hope) because Labour have targeted these issues for change.

I reckon Johnson wouldn't have beaten Starmer in 2019, not sure about now. Johnson still damaged by partygate.

[steviewevie]

also the big part of appeal of Reform against Tories is the fact that brexit is not giving them what they want...lower migration etc. and immigration went right up under Johnson because despite his brexit credentials he's pretty liberal on all that.

[steviewevie]

 

[lost]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

also the big part of appeal of Reform against Tories is the fact that brexit is not giving them what they want...lower migration etc. and immigration went right up under Johnson because despite his brexit credentials he's pretty liberal on all that.

 

Agreed the "Singapore on Thames" liberal global village brexit that the Tories wanted was never the vision of the people who voted for Brexit. They were always going to get found out there and part of the reason they are about to get wiped out by both remainers and Brexiteers.

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, lost said:

 

Agreed the "Singapore on Thames" liberal global village brexit that the Tories wanted was never the vision of the people who voted for Brexit. They were always going to get found out there and part of the reason they are about to get wiped out by both remainers and Brexiteers.

and this actually a divide in the people vying over future direction of tories..liberal small state version like that of Liz Truss...and the NatCon version of Braverman and co. Sunak tried and failed to appeal to both.

[steviewevie]

Predictions then...

Labour majority size?

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem?

Green or Labour in Bristol Central?

Farage in Clacton?

Corbyn in N Islington?

Galloway in Rochdale?

Shaheen in Chingford?

Who has most seats, Green or Reform?

[steviewevie]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Predictions then...

Labour majority size?

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem?

Green or Labour in Bristol Central?

Farage in Clacton?

Corbyn in N Islington?

Galloway in Rochdale?

Shaheen in Chingford?

Who has most seats, Green or Reform?

Mine (subject to change).

 

Labour majority size - 150

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem - Tories

Green or Labour in Bristol Central - Green

Farage in Clacton - Yes

Corbyn in N Islington - Yes

Galloway in Rochdale - Yes

Shaheen in Chingford - No

Who has most seats, Green or Reform - Reform

[Kurosagi]

Labour majority size - 187

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem - Tories

Green or Labour in Bristol Central - Green

Farage in Clacton - Yes

Corbyn in N Islington - No

Galloway in Rochdale - No

Shaheen in Chingford - No

Who has most seats, Green or Reform - Same

[mattiloy]

38 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Predictions then...

Labour majority size?

Main opposition party..Tories or Lib Dem?

Green or Labour in Bristol Central?

Farage in Clacton?

Corbyn in N Islington?

Galloway in Rochdale?

Shaheen in Chingford?

Who has most seats, Green or Reform?

 

 

Hard to call on all.

 

Even though the main result is a foregone conclusion, the sideshow should be good entertainment. Even besides this list there are plenty more potential shocks. Its one election I’d be tempted to stay up and watch. But with it being +1 hour here and having small kids, I probably wont.

[mattiloy]

My only prediction is Labour vote share a couple of percentage lower than polling. So maybe 36/37%

[Kurosagi]

I can't decide if people will stay at home or are determined to come out and give the tories a kicking. Could still be both I suppose.

 

Freedman is struggling with the size of the number of tory seats; never seen anything like it for a major party the day before a GE:

 

"There are, of course, big caveats. While every poll, and every other indicator we have, tells us there will be a big Labour majority, the scale of it, and what that means for the seat totals, is up in the air. I would not be shocked at any number of Tory seats between 30 and 200. There are so many close seats that we just won’t know till the exit poll."