Brexit Schmexit

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

boris has just done the "fuck you EU" thing again.

Yup, full on 'Show johnny foreigner who's boss, rule brittania, show them a bit of british steel and theyll go running' rubbish

[eFestivals]

Just now, zahidf said:

Yup, full on 'Show johnny foreigner who's boss, rule brittania, show them a bit of british steel and theyll go running' rubbish

which is why I put him with the headbangers, although there's also many much-milder 'soft brexit' things he's said.

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

which is why I put him with the headbangers, although there's also many much-milder 'soft brexit' things he's said.

Cos he has no sincerity at all. Its all a game for him, calculated for him to be PM.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Cos he has no sincerity at all. Its all a game for him, calculated for him to be PM.

yep, a game of no consequence to him. And people said it couldn't be worse than Cameron, and now say it couldn't be worse than May.

[mjsell]

I have never, and will never, understand how Boris is considered a viable PM candidate. Baffles me every single time I hear it.

 

[eFestivals]

17 minutes ago, mjsell said:

I have never, and will never, understand how Boris is considered a viable PM candidate. Baffles me every single time I hear it.

I don't think he is, any more. One of the reasons May's still in place is because there's no meaningful challenger to her.

According to the gossip, the 2010-or-more-recent MPs are demanding that the next leader comes from them, and that May should stay in place until one (or more) of them emerges as that likely leader.

From one angle I'm surprised at the newbies having enough sway so that's being reported as a likely thing rather than dismissed out of hand by the old guard ... but it does demonstrate how little support there is for Boris among tory MPs.

 

[eFestivals]

anyone see this story...?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/16/labour-rebecca-long-bailey-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

It's amazing. A year after the brexit vote Labour are still fixated on the same impossible that the tories started with and then reality hit and they gave it up.

[zahidf]

29 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

anyone see this story...?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/16/labour-rebecca-long-bailey-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

It's amazing. A year after the brexit vote Labour are still fixated on the same impossible that the tories started with and then reality hit and they gave it up.

Or its a political statement to make the govt look bad when they cant get it

[eFestivals]

10 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Or its a political statement to make the govt look bad when they cant get it

No, it's Long-Bailey stating what Labour's position is.

 

[lost]

41 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

anyone see this story...?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/16/labour-rebecca-long-bailey-brexit-cake-and-eat-it

It's amazing. A year after the brexit vote Labour are still fixated on the same impossible that the tories started with and then reality hit and they gave it up.

Yep.. Jezza said the same thing on ITV but then when prompted to expand couldn't explain the difference between the single market and customs union

[eFestivals]

Just now, lost said:

Yep.. Jezza said the same thing on ITV but then when prompted to expand couldn't explain the difference between the single market and customs union

To be fair, he doesn't really need to know the details once he's decided he's rejecting them both because of the constraints both would put on his own policy options.

Not knowing all of the details and differences isn't anything bad, when he's rejected both of them for very deliberate policy reasons.  If he didn't know why he's rejecting them (I suspect he does) then I'd shoot him down on that one.

(and i'll shoot him down for rejecting them, too).

[eFestivals]

this is heartening:

Big majority of Labour members 'want UK to stay in single market'

All they've got to do now is to convince their brexit-like-a-tory leader that the members control policy.

This might help...

Third of voters back second referendum on Brexit, poll suggests - Politics live

[zahidf]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

this is heartening:

Big majority of Labour members 'want UK to stay in single market'

All they've got to do now is to convince their brexit-like-a-tory leader that the members control policy.

This might help...

Third of voters back second referendum on Brexit, poll suggests - Politics live

Not sure a second referendum is the answer. Id have the issue at the election, one party (preferably labour) win on a remain platform (i know, unlikely with Corbyn in charge) and then do it through parliament

[eFestivals]

24 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Not sure a second referendum is the answer. Id have the issue at the election, one party (preferably labour) win on a remain platform (i know, unlikely with Corbyn in charge) and then do it through parliament

I think that's a harder way to try and make it happen, cos i reckon anyone who stood for election on reversing brexit without a new ref to endorse it is likely to find that a not-insignificant number would vote against them because they planned to reverse brexit without a ref to endorse it.

I think a 2nd referendum is very definitely the answer, and I don't think it's going to be particularly difficult to do, if it's going to happen - cos I reckon it'll only happen if it's clear that public opinion has already swung.

That 2nd link of mine shows there's still a way to go before that might be possible, but things are now moving in the right direction. And, I think, there's likely to be a big and fairly sudden swing due to something, too.

All this stuff is starting to play out in the tory party right now, and the country won't be too far behind. 

Looks like Corbyn might be, tho.

[russycarps]

I suspect part of that "something" will be the EU (Germany) offering concessions on immigration somewhere down the line.

Boris Johnson called it. We'd have to actually go through with our threat leave to end up getting what we want (eg controls on immigration).

If it turns out that he was right all along I suppose we'll have to applaud his political genius, albeit that he chose to gamble with the entire British economy to prove it...

 

 

 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, russycarps said:

I suspect part of that "something" will be the EU (Germany) offering concessions on immigration somewhere down the line.

Boris Johnson called it. We'd have to actually go through with our threat leave to end up getting what we want (eg controls on immigration).

If it turns out that he was right all along I suppose we'll have to applaud his political genius, albeit that he chose to gamble with the entire British economy to prove it...

 

 

 

i dont buy that alas: i think the EU would rather stick to free movement than have us in the EU.

[russycarps]

Just now, zahidf said:

i dont buy that alas: i think the EU would rather stick to free movement than have us in the EU.

Money talks, and we have shitloads of it. I think that's what will end up being the deciding factor in all this.

 

 

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, russycarps said:

I suspect part of that "something" will be the EU (Germany) offering concessions on immigration somewhere down the line.

Boris Johnson called it. We'd have to actually go through with our threat leave to end up getting what we want (eg controls on immigration).

If it turns out that he was right all along I suppose we'll have to applaud his political genius, albeit that he chose to gamble with the entire British economy to prove it...

Can't see it myself. The EU has already given us - the standard rules - to address a fair amount of the issues. Stuff like 3 months to get a job then can be sent home, access to benefits, etc. And the other 27 think we've got too many concessions already (we have more than any other nation).

The problem is that we - the people, less-so the govt (of any shade) - don't want those available options, because they impinge on us (the 'natives') as much as they would any immigrant. 

Cos what's needed is a formal way to 'register' people - all people - for access to jobs, bank accounts, public services, healthcare, benefits, etc. Just as they do in just about all other EU countries. From a management point of view of the govt - any govt - it's a no-brainer, too.
(still got to say, tho, that from a personal point of view I'm far from keen)

The mad thing is that post-brexit we're going to need something like that anyway, so we might as well have had it when in the EU.

But, even if you're right and we end up staying in via being given more concessions, it's still going to need 'the people' to sign it off via another ref, i'd say.

[russycarps]

Well, moody's don't agree with my analysis either it seems!

https://www.fundstrategy.co.uk/moodys-substantial-risk-brexit-talks-will-fail/

 

[pink_triangle]

10 hours ago, eFestivals said:

this is heartening

Another interesting thing from that article was how the proportion of the fairly affluent continues to rise amongst the membership. It's amazing that the champion of the working class and social justice can't attract these voters!

[russycarps]

What a pile of shit Davis has served up to the EU. Embarrassing. 

And meanwhile the pound edges ever closer to parity with the euro. The slow motion destruction of our economy is a wonder to behold. I suppose things will speed up when the FDI starts drying up.

Terrifying times ahead.

 

 

[eFestivals]

38 minutes ago, russycarps said:

What a pile of shit Davis has served up to the EU. Embarrassing. 

Hmmm. Yes and no.

It's very obviously the only 'sensible' deal from the outside that the UK could propose, given the various positions taken on various aspects of our future relationship with the EU.

But it's of course outside of what the EU has previously said it's prepared to do, so looks an impossibility.

And yet .... if we don't ask we very definitely won't get it. 

And in theory, the EU and the UK creating a new customs union between them (rather than the UK joining the EU's CU) isn't a mad idea, and would get around the ECJ issue, as there'd have to be (in normal international relations) a new joint body to oversee that EU/UK-CU. If the UK had never joined the EU it's perhaps quite likely that's what would exist today.

But we did join the EU, and the political imperative for the EU is that the UK cannot end up with as good a deal outside as inside, else it shows the EU as having little purpose via its membership .... which means it does seem very unlikely.

But, still, if you don't ask you don't get. ... and finally the UK has actually asked for something, anything. It's a step forwards at least, even if it's a step towards what was always going to be a disaster.

[zahidf]

 

[eFestivals]

Another poll at the weekend, again showing a small but solid want to remain if there was to be a 2nd referendum. They've been consistently like that for the last few months, as the reality starts to sink in.

Fingers crossed that this view starts to get stronger. It's our only hope.

[Lad]

Two hopes.Bob Hope and no hope.