Weather

[Jie Bie]

what forecast are you looking at? i'm not seeing showers every day at all

Yep, as FloorFiller says it is the BBC forecast showing each day as being sunny with showers.

Is the BBC 5-10 day forecast generally considered inaccurate? I find that their short term forecasts are normally spot on where I live.

[Mr.Tease]

How does all this business actually work? Do the groups posting forecasts (bbc, netweather, yr.no...) use the same data (GFS?), and each interpret them in their own way?

I think different sites use different sources. I used to know the precise answer to this a few years ago, but I have since forgotten!

[tumbles]

As I say I reguarlly go to Taunton to watch cricket and usually see the rain/sun combo symbol on the BBC forecast.. 90% of the time never get any rain. I think its just a case of covering their arse/they've not got a scooby.

Those last set of essembles (http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/9panel/gfs_pres_9panel_eur.gif) look blinding.. till Sunday. If the HP pushes out one more day it would be perfect.

[stevieweevil]

Light showers/Drizzle & Sunshine.

Their forecast after 5 days is notoriously bad and their current forecast for the festival period reeks of sitting on the fence to me

Edited June 20, 2014 by stevieweevil

[nickharley]

Their forecast after 5 days is notoriously bad and their current forecast for the festival period reeks of sitting on the fence to me

definitely they've covered all bases , it also predicts each night to be dry at the moment.

[sparkythetortoise]

As I say I reguarlly go to Taunton to watch cricket and usually see the rain/sun combo symbol on the BBC forecast.. 90% of the time never get any rain. I think its just a case of covering their arse/they've not got a scooby.

Those last set of essembles (http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/9panel/gfs_pres_9panel_eur.gif) look blinding.. till Sunday. If the HP pushes out one more day it would be perfect.

Do you think the HP will push out one more day?

I have, of course, no idea what I have just asked.

Not only do I not understand these charts, I don't even know what an essemble is. I come on here, about once every five minutes, and poke about for positive statements I don't understand, while agreeing that the BBC is terrible, until they say sun, at which point they will become experts.

I am a sad little man

[Swine_Glasto2014]

Still means no sitting down for the the entire festival.

Wear appropriate clothing and you can sit anywhere in heavy rain Edited June 20, 2014 by Swine_Glasto2014

[tumbles]

Do you think the HP will push out one more day?

I have, of course, no idea what I have just asked.

Not only do I not understand these charts, I don't even know what an essemble is. I come on here, about once every five minutes, and poke about for positive statements I don't understand, while agreeing that the BBC is terrible, until they say sun, at which point they will become experts.

I am a sad little man

Well so far it's seemingly pushed out more and more as this week has gone on so who knows. The thing to look on those graphs is the clear bit over the UK.. the pink/purple coming in over Sunday is cloud/rain resulting from low pressure moving in.

We are all sad.. work.. haha I remember doing some about 2 weeks ago.

[swede]

Im going off my iphone, the weather app on it was absolutely spot on last year during the festival. I remember waking up the Thursday and checking it and it said rain starting in the afternoon and lasting all day, it was bright sunshine and I though "no chance this is right".

At the moment the app goes until Wednesday and its got that as bright sunshine with temp of 24. That'll do to start.

[GlastoSimon]

Well so far it's seemingly pushed out more and more as this week has gone on so who knows. The thing to look on those graphs is the clear bit over the UK.. the pink/purple coming in over Sunday is cloud/rain resulting from low pressure moving in.

We are all sad.. work.. haha I remember doing some about 2 weeks ago.

Given that initially it was 'mixed from Wednesday', then 'good start but mixed from Friday', then the other day it was looking good on Friday too, and now it's only Sunday, I think you could be right Think we'll have a much better idea on Monday or Tuesday what it's going to be like for the latter parts of the festival.

Not that I'm getting complacent. Have said all along the HP is definitely going to breakdown soon-ish (it has to!) so hopefully it holds out.

[Ted Dansons Wig]

Still means no sitting down for the the entire festival.

Arent we the cheery one this morning Nal? Had a few Euro on an England win did you?

The total rain forecast currently is still less than we got in 3 hours on Thursday last year. Depending on when it falls and given its falling on hard ground with excellent drainage its not mudtime. Yet.

[Mr.Tease]

Werlar appropriate clothing and you can sit anywhere in heavy rain

I never get the claims that you can't sit down if it's wet/muddy- I always 'werlar' waterproof trousers or sit on a bin liner

[Midnight Man]

Given that initially it was 'mixed from Wednesday', then 'good start but mixed from Friday', then the other day it was looking good on Friday too, and now it's only Sunday, I think you could be right Think we'll have a much better idea on Monday or Tuesday what it's going to be like for the latter parts of the festival.

Not that I'm getting complacent. Have said all along the HP is definitely going to breakdown soon-ish (it has to!) so hopefully it holds out.

I'm hopeful because the high pressure doesn't really feel like it's building to a climax yet, as it were, just hanging around looking for something to do.

[Porcelina]

Repeat of last year please, that was a lot of rain on the Thursday but so worth taking the initial pain.

1mm of rain a day is essentially non existent, a bit of moisture in the air. Also forecasters will sit on the fence as long as possible to 'cover themselves'.

It's going to be El Scorchio pt.2.

[Ted Dansons Wig]

I never get the claims that you can't sit down if it's wet/muddy- I always 'werlar' waterproof trousers or sit on a bin liner

Seriously? hats off you mate. personally the thought of trying to sit down on a bin liner with waterproofs on seems a dreadful proposition. And if it gets really bad - the bin bag would just float on the sludge in any case. Not that thats predicted thankfully

[stuartbert two hats]

How does all this business actually work? Do the groups posting forecasts (bbc, netweather, yr.no...) use the same data (GFS?), and each interpret them in their own way?

I think it's

• BBC - UKMO (Met Office)
• MetCheck/Accuweather - GFS
• yr.no -ECM
• Netweather - GFS (really not sure about this one)
• JackOne/J10 - Manual forecast looking at all models

Although it may be more complex than this, with some sites changing models depending on timeframe, I'm really not sure. I may have got some of these wrong, but I'm reasonably confident about the Beeb and Metcheck.

[stuartbert two hats]

Do you think the HP will push out one more day?

I have, of course, no idea what I have just asked.

Not only do I not understand these charts, I don't even know what an essemble is. I come on here, about once every five minutes, and poke about for positive statements I don't understand, while agreeing that the BBC is terrible, until they say sun, at which point they will become experts.

I am a sad little man

You are also just like me

[Mr.Tease]

Seriously? hats off you mate. personally the thought of trying to sit down on a bin liner with waterproofs on seems a dreadful proposition. And if it gets really bad - the bin bag would just float on the sludge in any case. Not that thats predicted thankfully

It depends on the type of mud- obviously not the watery type, but normal mud is actually comfortable, as long as you are waterproof!

[Mr.Tease]

Do you think the HP will push out one more day?

I have, of course, no idea what I have just asked.

Not only do I not understand these charts, I don't even know what an essemble is. I come on here, about once every five minutes, and poke about for positive statements I don't understand, while agreeing that the BBC is terrible, until they say sun, at which point they will become experts.

I am a sad little man

From the bbc's site:

What is an ensemble forecast?

A forecast is an estimate of the future state of the atmosphere. It is created by estimating the current state of the atmosphere using observations, and then calculating how this state will evolve in time using a numerical weather prediction computer model. As the atmosphere is a chaotic system, very small errors in its initial state can lead to large errors in the forecast.

This means that we can never create a perfect forecast system because we can never observe every detail of the atmosphere's initial state. Tiny errors in the initial state will be amplified, so there is always a limit to how far ahead we can predict any detail.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Mr.Tease

[Mr Ploppy]

Here is a dose of positivity:

I got walking and hiking all the time and I only ever rely on 1 certain android app for the weather. Its just uses met office data but is correct 90% of the time - and thats the best anyone can expect.

I do however check the BBC weather just for checkings sake and I can tell you without any uncertainty that their 5 - 10 day forecast is completely pointless.

You should all have probably figured out now that they put clouds, a raindrop and sunshine throughout their 5 - 10 day forecast merely to cover all bets. They have been doing this for yonks and do it for all over the country.

Ignore the raindrops on the BBC 5 - 10 forcast (as of today) as its just a ridiculous way of them announcing "we havent got a clue right now".

Seriously folks... they've predicted cloud, showers and sun for the whole of the festival - in other words they've predicted there will be weather, so don't waste your time and anxiety on looking at the BBC forecast right now.

This is the BBC 5 - 10 forecast of right now:

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/4371-weather/

And this is what it should look like:

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/4372-weather2/

[tumbles]

^ should be using Pilton thou

[stuartbert two hats]

Not to do with the weather as such, but I've just noticed that Metcheck now has three of the five days of the festival listed under "this week", rather than "next week"!

EEK!

[Mr Ploppy]

^ should be using Pilton thou

As I said, its exactly the same for different parts of the country: Pilton shows the exact same.

[Swine_Glasto2014]

Here is a dose of positivity:

I got walking and hiking all the time and I only ever rely on 1 certain android app for the weather. Its just uses met office data but is correct 90% of the time - and thats the best anyone can expect.

I do however check the BBC weather just for checkings sake and I can tell you without any uncertainty that their 5 - 10 day forecast is completely pointless.

You should all have probably figured out now that they put clouds, a raindrop and sunshine throughout their 5 - 10 day forecast merely to cover all bets. They have been doing this for yonks and do it for all over the country.

Ignore the raindrops on the BBC 5 - 10 forcast (as of today) as its just a ridiculous way of them announcing "we havent got a clue right now".

Seriously folks... they've predicted cloud, showers and sun for the whole of the festival - in other words they've predicted there will be weather, so don't waste your time and anxiety on looking at the BBC forecast right now.

This is the BBC 5 - 10 forecast of right now:

And this is what it should look like:

Again, I'll go with that

[stuartbert two hats]

^ should be using Pilton thou

http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/gallery/image/4373-gallery-44987-1308-60132/

Happy now?