The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

Managed to find the report

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-09-16/more-passion-injected-into-closing-stages-of-vote/

Play the video and the part I recalled is at about 1.02min. It says the source for the numbers is the Treasury, but thats it.......

Thanks. The stats I quoted at you only disagree about one of those five years.

(it's worth noting that although the 2013-14 numbers are not yet available, every man and his dog already knows they're worse than the 2012-13 numbers)

Rather amusingly tho, it's no longer possible for me to take you to the original source of those numbers, because the Scottish Govt have decided in their wisdom that the "experimental" numbers from SNAP for Scotland that I quoted you should no longer be available to the public.

Any guesses for why Honest Alex might have done that?

[ThomThomDrum]

The positives of a YES vote

England can disown these loyalists

They can be Scotland's problem going forward

If there is a YES vote they will move to England or is my understanding of his accent not correct?

He and his buddies will become your neighbor Baz! Im sure you will welcome them with open arms

Now where did I put my shopping trolly? Im of to pick up plastic bottles.............

[eFestivals]

I've kept digging around for those SNAP numbers, without any luck so far. I mgith still locate them somewhere.

But what I have fo9und is two very interesting letters about Scotland and the EU.

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/Inquiries/20140310_Convener_to_Vivianne_Reding_European_Commission.pdf

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/Inquiries/Letter_from_Viviane_Reding_Vice_President_of_the_European_Commission_dated_20_March_2014__pdf.pdf

The first is a letter from the Scottish Govt to the EU to ask the European Commission's attitude to Scotland's membership via Article 48 rather than the more-normal Article 49.

The second is an official reply from the European Commission.

(I was aware of the 2nd letter, i'd never been sure of its context till now).

The Commission's position on the issue that you raise has been stated on a number of occasions since 2004 1 . The Treaties apply to the Member States. When part of the territory of a Member State ceases to be a part of that State, e.g. because that territory becomes an independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory. In other words, a new independent region would, by the fact of its independence, become a third country with respect to the Union and the Treaties would, from the day of its independence, not apply anymore on its territory.

So Scotland, you're fucked where immediate EU membership is concerned. But you just keep on pretending it's a possibility, eh?

(I do, however, expect there to be some sort of kudge offered to Scotland - tho for a price, and definitely not for more opt-outs than any EU member has ever had).

[eFestivals]

If there is a YES vote they will move to England or is my understanding of his accent not correct?

from what i've read, the main reason there's such strong no support amongst Rangers and Celtic fans is because it will set in stone forever them continuing to play domestically in Scotland.

It's good to see how people put thei9r country first, eh?

[eFestivals]

Ohoooo, and follow-up letters.....

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/2014_04_11_Letter_to_Commission_-_Vice_President_Reding.pdf

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/2014_06_04_Viiviane_Redding_to_Convener.pdf

The first one says "but, but, but ... the people of Scotland will lose their EU rights, and that's just not fair".

(I'm pretty sure there was also the sound of stamping feet. )

And the reply says "you'll have voted those rights away yourself. Tough titty".

(I might have paraphrased things just a little bit there ).

Edited September 17, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

ohhhh, I'm on a roll with data galore.....

This makes interesting reading, for anyone who cares what happens in Scotland going forwards....

1. REGIONS OF LARGER STATES (% of export)

65% ... Scotland to rUK (8% of population)

47% ... Catalonia to rSpain (16%)

47% ... Bavaria to rGermany (15%)

44% ... Quebec to rCanada (24%)

42% ... British Columbia to rCanada (13%)

42% ... Alberta to rCanada (11%)

2. SMALL INDEPENDENT EUROPEAN STATES:

THE MAIN EXPORT PARTNER (% of export)

32% ... Iceland to the Netherlands

31% ... Austria to Germany

27% ... Norway to the UK

25% ... Portugal to Spain

21% ... Slovenia to Germany

20% ... Slovakia to Germany

19% ... Ireland to the US

16% ... Estonia to Sweden

15% ... Denmark to Germany

12% ... Finland to Sweden

3. RECENTLY INDEPENDENT EUROPEAN STATES:

% OF EXPORT TO THE FORMER UNION

18% ... Ireland to the UK (independence 1922)

12% ... Estonia to Russia (1991)

14% ... Slovenia to former Yugoslavia (1991)

14% ... Slovakia to the Czech Republic (1993)

9% ... Finland to Russia (1917)

7% ... Norway to Sweden (1905)

2% ... Iceland to Denmark (1944)

Edited September 17, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

SCOTLAND'S GEOGRAPHICAL OIL REVENUES

Scottish government's data

2011-12 ... £11.1 billion

2012-13 ... £5.6 billion

2013-14 ... £4.0 billion

[eFestivals]

EU: SURPLUS (+) OR DEFICIT (-) IN 2012 AS % GDP

including Norway and Iceland

Deficit % GDP ... State

+13.9 ... Norway with oil

+0.2 ... Germany

-0.3 ... Estonia

-0.5 ... Sweden

-0.8 ... Luxembourg

-0.8 ... Bulgaria

-1.2 ... Latvia

-1.9 ... Hungary

-1.9 ... Finland

-2.5 ... Austria

-2.9 ... Romania

-3.0 ... Italy

-3.2 ... Lithuania

-3.3 ... Malta

-3.8 ... Iceland

-3.9 ... Poland

-3.9 ... Norway without oil

-3.9 ... Belgium

-4.0 ... Slovenia

-4.0 ... EU average

-4.0 ... Denmark

-4.1 ... Netherlands

-4.3 ... Slovakia

-4.4 ... Czech Republic

-4.8 ... France

-6.3 ... Cyprus

-6.4 ... Portugal

-7.3 ... United Kingdom 2012-13 (GERS)

-7.6 ... Ireland

-8.3 ... Scotland 2012-13 (WITH geogr. oil revenues)

-10.0 ... Greece

-10.6 ... Spain

-14.0 ... Scotland 2012-13 (WITHOUT oil revenues)

[eFestivals]

Scotland, the nation?

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey:

Percentage of people of Scotland identifying themselves as

* Scottish not Brittish OR

* more Scottish than British

1999 ... 67%

2000 ... 68%

2001 ... 66%

2002 ... 65%

2003 ... 64%

2004 ... 65%

2005 ... 55%

2006 ... 58%

2007 ... 58%

2008 ... 60%

2009 ... 53%

2010 ... 54%

2011 ... 49%

Percentage of people of Scotland identifying themselves as

* Scottish not British

1999 ... 32%

2000 ... 37%

2001 ... 36%

2002 ... 31%

2003 ... 32%

2004 ... 33%

2005 ... 26%

2006 ... 27%

2007 ... 28%

2008 ... 28%

2009 ... 23%

2010 ... 25%

2011 ... 23%

------------

Data: What Scotland Thinks - Scottish Social Attitudes Survey

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/moreno-national-identity-5#table

[ThomThomDrum]

So what you are saying is the UKs Defict % is really shit and without Scotland will be worse?

[ThomThomDrum]

Scotland, the nation?

On the decline as they never got around to making "Braveheart Part II"

[5co77ie]

Ohoooo, and follow-up letters.....

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/2014_04_11_Letter_to_Commission_-_Vice_President_Reding.pdf

http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_EuropeanandExternalRelationsCommittee/2014_06_04_Viiviane_Redding_to_Convener.pdf

The first one says "but, but, but ... the people of Scotland will lose their EU rights, and that's just not fair".

(I'm pretty sure there was also the sound of stamping feet. )

Not just the people of Scotland, but 160,000 EU citizens resident in Scotland would no longer be living in the EU

and the number of Scots living in other EU countries, including the rest of the UK, will no longer be EU residents

That's an amazing fact I've not heard mentioned before, as I say not that I've been following it very closely!

[eFestivals]

The OBR are under-estimating the oil, and Salmond is right...?

2012-13

£6.7 billion … OBR forecast
£6.9 to £7.2 billion … SNP forecast

£5.6 billion … ACTUAL revenues (GERS)


2013-14

£6.2 billion … OBR forecast
£7.1 to £8.3 billion … SNP forecasts

£4.0 billion … ACTUAL revenues (sum of GERS quarterly figures)

[eFestivals]

So what you are saying is the UKs Defict % is really shit and without Scotland will be worse?

That table says the opposite.

Yes, the UK's deficit IS really shit.

Unlike iScotland tho, the UK is not pretending everything is rosy and can carry on as it is.

[eFestivals]

Not just the people of Scotland, but 160,000 EU citizens resident in Scotland would no longer be living in the EU

and the number of Scots living in other EU countries, including the rest of the UK, will no longer be EU residents

That's an amazing fact I've not heard mentioned before, as I say not that I've been following it very closely!

Yep.

On I-Day, Scotland will have to decide whether to boot those EU nationals out or not, and the EU states will have to decide whether to boot Scottish nationals out.

(rather sadly-amusingly, while EU nationals can vote Scotland independent, they lose their vote for any further sovereign-Scotland issues [such as general elections] by doing so. Instead, Scottish citizenship will get stuffed with 'ethnic' Scots from anywhere in the world in preference to those horrid EU nationals ).

There was a time when I believed that people would be able to keep both rUK and Scottish nationality on I-Day - but the practicalities of the split probably mean that's not going to happen, and people will have to chose one or the other.

Why? Because they'll need to be some sort of mechanism to decide which country picks up the tab of a person's pension and then keeps that person's pension, and for other similar 'split' issues.

Also, if the rUK is giving citizenship to anyone Scottish, then surely iScotland should give citizenship to anyone rUK? Which pretty much confirms that it won't happen.

Edited September 17, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

On the decline as they never got around to making "Braveheart Part II"

I guess so. The absence of the sequel is probably the fatal flaw in Salmond's campaign.

[5co77ie]

Alex Salmond is Herod and I claim my £5

So who is taking betting on there being a Scottish brawl somewhere tomorrow as passions, and Buckfast runneth over.

[ThomThomDrum]

Unlike iScotland tho, the UK is not pretending everything is rosy and can carry on as it is.

You dont hear Yesers saying it will be worse in a iScotland for the Scottish, but you do hear it from those who say No. They are screaming it! Thats their mantra, no? They are only supporting the No as they are so very concerned about the welfare of the good people of Scotland. Yeah?

What you dont hear coming from the Nos is that "we want to keep you Scotland because we want your revenue and we will be worse off with out it ourselves". And isn't that the true nature of the political No? The same sneeky greedy motivations many can say exist in the Yes.

Its all selfish motivations.

You hear no one saying "hey Scotland, do what you want. Go on. Be stupid if you want. BTW if you get an iScotland you will be fucked and we will be AOK down south"

Edited September 17, 2014 by ThomThomDrum

[eFestivals]

I've posted this before, it's fantastic .... it's a list of the Scottish govt's obsessions, where you can see what classes as most important to them leading up to Scotland's historic referendum...

NUMBER OF WEBPAGES ON THE SNP WEBSITE WHICH CONTAIN THE FOLLOWING WORDS (for webpages published in year 2013):

864 … Westminster
626 …Labour
360 … Tory
250 … EU
206 … Sturgeon
192 … Salmond
182 … bedroom tax
171 … oil
166 … England
144 … Cameron
126 … Trident
97 … scaremongering
81 … Yes Scotland
79 … Better Together
74 … debt
72 … Project Fear
64 … Ireland
61 … childcare
59 … Wales
58 … currency
57 … pound
57 … deficit
53 … Norway
28 … constitution
28 … debate & Cameron & Salmond
24 … euro
20 … myth
18 … NATO
17 … Scotland contributes 9.9% of UK tax revenues but receives 9.3% of public spending (several versions of sentence)
14 … McCrone
11 … Thatcher
8 … 1707
8 … Iceland
5 … Schengen

[LondonTom]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/kay-burley-says-sorry-for-calling-proscottish-independence-voter-a-knob-live-on-air-cites-challenging-environment-9738222.html

Kay Burley calls a Yes voter a knob

Edited September 17, 2014 by LondonTom

[ThomThomDrum]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/kay-burley-says-sorry-for-calling-proscottish-independence-voter-a-knob-live-on-air-cites-challenging-environment-9738222.html

Kay Burley calls a Yes voter a knob

Thats one person I can not stand

[Stash]

Eurostat shows the UK GDP deficit as a % of GDP for 2012/13 at -6.3%. Does that suggest loosing Scotland and her geographical share of Oil leaves the UK deficit only 1% worse but Scotland between 2-7% worse?

Has anyone told Alec?

(http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-22042013-AP/EN/2-22042013-AP-EN.PDF)

Edited September 17, 2014 by Stash

[Stash]

What you dont hear coming from the Nos is that "we want to keep you Scotland because we want your revenue and we will be worse off with out it ourselves". And isn't that the true nature of the political No? The same sneeky greedy motivations many can say exist in the Yes.

Didn't you see the press releases from the Scottish financial sector. A yes vote means they are going to give their taxes to the UK anyway!

[eFestivals]

You dont hear Yesers saying it will be worse in a iScotland for the Scottish, but you do hear it from those who say No. They are screaming it! Thats their mantra, no? They are only supporting the No as they are so very concerned about the welfare of the good people of Scotland. Yeah?

If they weren't concerned for Scotland, they'd have fucked them off a century or more ago. 'England' certainly isn't doing it for the money.

(that's not me saying that there's not been money in it at points, of course there has. But mostly the flow has been one-way).

If your take on things holds up, why does the UK pump shit-loads into N.I.?

What you dont hear coming from the Nos is that "we want to keep you Scotland because we want your revenue and we will be worse off with out it ourselves". And isn't that the true nature of the political No? The same sneeky greedy motivations many can say exist in the Yes.

Its all selfish motivations.

There's certainly a benefit that rUK gets out of Scotland's inclusion within the union. An iScotland will certainly make rUK proportionally poorer.

But that doesn't mean that rUK is getting a direct input of money from Scotland - tho it does occasionally, but far less than Scotland likes to believe. There's been 6 years in the last 25 years where Scotland has had a lower deficit than rUK.

My own objections could be summed up as:-

1. I believe in 'together' - not just for the UK like a little Englander, but for the EU, and the world too. However, that doesn't mean I'd support 'together' in all circumstances.

2. that there's fuck all of any plan for iScotland. It's jumping off a cliff with your fingers crossed.

3. where progress towards independence could have been made, Scotland hasn't bothered to do it - leaving them with fewer national institutions at the time of thinking about indy than just about any other territory which has had an indy vote.

You hear no one saying "hey Scotland, do what you want. Go on. Be stupid if you want. BTW if you get an iScotland you will be fucked and we will be AOK down south"

PMSL - I see that you're new to the debate.

Edited September 17, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Eurostat shows the UK GDP deficit as a % of GDP for 2012/13 at -6.3%

One of the problems with stats is where you get them from, and when. National numbers often get revised long after the event, while lots of calcs tend to get mostly made from the numbers that are initally published for any period. And just to confuse things further, people sometimes work off one set of revised numbers and one set of un-revised numbers - as the numbers don't tend to get revised all at the same time.

Amusingly, the UK has just started including estimates for drug dealing and prostitution within GDP figures - which has caused a number of recent years to be revised yet again.