The Dirty Independence Question

[tolywoly]

There's also loads of people who say they don't know anyone voting no.

I'm guessing that many Scots give the answer that they think aligns with who is asking the question, as a way of avoiding verbal conflict.

The yes-ers translate this into a yes win, and the no-ers translate it into a no win.

The yes-ers also like to suggest that the polls will be hugely wrong, based on ... a Nat myth that the polls were hugely wrong in 2011 for the SG election. But it's not true, the final polls from the more-respected pollsters had the voting percentages almost spot-on, and it was merely how that translated into seats for each party that they got so wrong (as that's dependent on where exactly a vote was cast, that's not so surprising. They'd have needed representative samples in every constituency to get that right).

It's difficult to see from the polls what the result will be, but my strong suspicion is that the 'traditional' polling companies (MORI, YouGov, etc) will be much nearer being correct than those polling companies with less experience and less historical data to model indyref polling intentions against.

In fact, I'll go so far as to say I suspect the victory for 'no' will be by a greater margin than those polls suggest (as long as there's no 'game changer' that happens within the next 6 weeks).

The last two polls in the run up to the European Elections overestimated the SNP vote by 6%. That's probably more relevant than the list result from the 2011 SP elections.

But I still think turnout will be a huge factor. The Yes side definitely seen more exercised to get out and vote. The polling companies obviously weight their results to account for how likely people are to vote, but they're lacking historical reference for a vote like this with this high a likely turn out. So it could even be closer than it looks. Though across the board the polling companies do always put No ahead.

Edited August 6, 2014 by tolywoly

[eFestivals]

Dammit ... I wrote a long reply, and then managed to close the page without posting it. I'll have another go.....

The last two polls in the run up to the European Elections overestimated the SNP vote by 6%. That's probably more relevant than the list result from the 2011 SP elections.

thanks, I wasn't aware of that.

But I still think turnout will be a huge factor. The Yes side definitely seen more exercised to get out and vote.

I'm not so sure. It's a claim yes are making, but there's actually not that much to back it up. If "voters for change" are more motivated, care to explain what happened with the AV ref?

It's certainly the case that the (small 'c') conservative voters who will vote 'no' are the most motivated voters in every uk election to date.

And many of the yes-ers are voters that haven't voted for 20+ years, who have been signed up to the electoral roll for the first time in years from their doorsteps, but who actually have to care enough (when they haven't in the past) to get out and vote.

I reckon that unless the polls start to suggest to people a different result from what they currently suggest, these people won't bother to go and support an idea that they'll believe to be already lost, at least not in anything like the expected numbers that yes is hoping for.

The polling companies obviously weight their results to account for how likely people are to vote, but they're lacking historical reference for a vote like this with this high a likely turn out. So it could even be closer than it looks. Though across the board the polling companies do always put No ahead.

While there's no data for a vote exactly like this, the longer established polling companies have a lot of historical data to work from, that shows the likelihood of whether people will actually vote when they say they will, etc - and that's likely to help give a more accurate forecast of the result than merely taking them on their word.

It's from that sort of thing where the gaps open up between the 'traditional' pollsters and the new kids on the block, and the experience and data to model from is likely to have those traditional pollsters being more accurate.

(It's in the interests of all pollsters to be as accurate as possible because their businesses depend on it, so i'm not suggesting that anyone is gerrymandering the polling results, they'll all be working in a way they believe to be right. Tho that isn't stopping many idiot Nats from claiming that some pollsters are deliberately lying to undermine 'yes' - which just gets to show how detached from reality so many of the 'yes voters' claims are, and that facts do not enter into their views at all).

[eFestivals]

Anyway ... CU ....

If CU is the best for Scotland and the UK, can anyone tell me why every Scotsman isn't acting as guarantor for their neighbour's mortgage?

[LJS]

Apologies for my lack of input. I am on my northern travels again wending our way to Belladrum where we will have the pleasure of hearing Tommy Sheridan...guaranteed a bit more passion than last night.

We had no signal in our hotel last night but had a tv.

I don't dispute that darling "won" but it doesn't alter my belief that independence offers the best long term future for Scotland. It would be nice to get a bit more coverage from some of the other people in the Yes campaign. (not meaning Tommy there)

Anyway. Onwards & upwards. We have lost a battle not the war.

[eFestivals]

Edited August 6, 2014 by eFestivals

[russycarps]

the argument for yes now just seems to be "anything but the tories must be better"

[eFestivals]

the argument for yes now just seems to be "anything but the tories must be better"

it degenerated into Project McFear for the yes-ers about a month or more ago, precisely because they've been unable to make the breakthru with the 'positive vision' they offer.

Yes-ers love to say that 'no' don't get what's going on, and yet they've failed to notice why their own vision alone isn't enough to persuade many people - its lack of substance.

Telling people "everything will be fine, don't worry about it" isn't enough for some people.

And neither is playing politics with an idea (like independence) which is above politics doing them any favours. Few are stupid enough to believe that everything will work out in the way that a politician says it will, and Salmond has left no 'slack' within the his vision for the things that'll inevitably go wrong. Him brushing off all suggestions that he might be wrong only inflicts further damage to the belief in him that the sway-ables need to have.

It'll take a Martian landing or something equally big to swing it for him now. He's blown it.

[LJS]

We'll see.

[eFestivals]

We'll see.

We will, and I don't discount the possibility of a turn-around ... but it is going to take something big to do it, and i don't think it's likely.

For at least the last 3 months it's been "this thing will be the big breakthru", but all movement has long stalled. There's a bit of jumping around in the results of different polls, but not actually any movement overall.

Salmond simply doesn't have the substance to give that the sway-able are wanting. They won't buy into the vision he's offering.

Because of how opinion has panned out over the last 6 months I actually now think he might have been able to sell the electorate a new currency after all, but it's too late to do it now. It will appear like an insignificant after-thought, and won't be convincing.

Edited August 6, 2014 by eFestivals

[brandycoke]

Apologies for my lack of input. I am on my northern travels again wending our way to Belladrum where we will have the pleasure of hearing Tommy Sheridan...guaranteed a bit more passion than last night.

Pleasure hearing Tommy Sheridan at Belladrum, ffs you've a weird concept of pleasure.

Won't ruin ma weekend though.

[LJS]

Pleasure hearing Tommy Sheridan at Belladrum, ffs you've a weird concept of pleasure.

Won't ruin ma weekend though.

Ach , Tommy may not be to everyone's taste, but you cannae fault his enthusiasm. I would love to see him back as an msp. He would not be feart to ask the difficult questions.

& on CU, whilst there is some sense to the Snp's argument that it is likely to happen whatever the no campaign say, making it into a dealbreaker as they have surely done just doesn't make any sense.

After the commonwealth games, we should go for the tunnock's tea cake as our currency.

[eFestivals]

& on CU, whilst there is some sense to the Snp's argument that it is likely to happen whatever the no campaign say, making it into a dealbreaker as they have surely done just doesn't make any sense.

There's only any sense to it if you've spent the last 25 years in a hole in the ground to have not noticed a continual propaganda campaign against currency unions, and if everyone in Scotland is happily the guarantor of their neighbour's mortgage.

Given that both are untrue, there's no sense at all to their position. To say they'd like one, yes, but to think that rUK *will* give one? :lol:

I'm mightily amused at the excuse Alex gave to Business Scotland yesterday for why he won't answer the Plan B question, because it's utterly illogical from any angle. His negotiating position with rUK would be strengthened by having a credible Plan B, not weakened.

Edited August 7, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

After the commonwealth games, we should go for the tunnock's tea cake as our currency.

I suggest empty Buckie bottles.

[russycarps]

There's only any sense to it if you've spent the last 25 years in a hole in the ground to have not noticed a continual propaganda campaign against currency unions, and if everyone in Scotland is happily the guarantor of their neighbour's mortgage.

Given that both are untrue, there's no sense at all to their position. To say they'd like one, yes, but to think that rUK *will* give one? :lol:

I'm mightily amused at the excuse Alex gave to Business Scotland yesterday for why he won't answer the Plan B question, because it's utterly illogical from any angle. His negotiating position with rUK would be strengthened by having a credible Plan B, not weakened.

any plan B would have to come with an admission the economy would take a pretty huge hit in the short-medium term. Would the greedy scots accept that? Alex obviously thinks they would not.

[eFestivals]

any plan B would have to come with an admission the economy would take a pretty huge hit in the short-medium term. Would the greedy scots accept that? Alex obviously thinks they would not.

All pollings in the past says that Scotland wouldn't accept anything that wasn't the UK pound - which is why Alex has swapped his choice to the pound from the Euro. Alex once said "the pound is a millstone around Scotland's neck".

But from what I've seen over the past few months, I'd say that plenty of Scots are now much more open to alternative currencies - tho it might well be the case that these were already yes voters anyway.

Personally I'm less than convinced that Alex really wants that CU, and I reckon he'll be quite happy to see his proposal fail because it's not what he really wants - but that can't be admitted to the Scottish voters.

Because for Alex victory is everything and fuck the impact onto Scotland. For Alex the result of the vote is everything and the impact of that vote is nothing.

Edited August 7, 2014 by eFestivals

[russycarps]

All pollings in the past says that Scotland wouldn't accept anything that wasn't the UK pound - which is why Alex has swapped his choice to the pound from the Euro. Alex once said "the pound is a millstone around Scotland's neck".

But from what I've seen over the past few months, I'd say that plenty of Scots are now much more open to alternative currencies - tho it might well be the case that these were already yes voters anyway.

Personally I'm less than convinced that Alex really wants that CU, and I reckon he'll be quite happy to see his proposal fail because it's not what he really wants - but that can't be admitted to the Scottish voters.

Because for Alex victory is everything and fuck the impact onto Scotland. For Alex the result of the vote is everything and the impact of that vote is nothing.

do you think the euro is still his preferred choice then?

imagine if they get indy and end up with the euro, which would be inevitable wouldnt it? That should make any prospective yes-er shudder. Italy are back in recession today. Inflation is at 0.1%. Their debt pile is massive. If they still had the lira they'd be laughing.

[LJS]

You really think the EU want to expand the euro zone in the next few years? The current one is still held together by blu tack & sticky tape...mainly supplied by Germany. It is highly debatable whether it will ever be in a state where expansion is an option, but it sure won't be soon.

[russycarps]

You really think the EU want to expand the euro zone in the next few years?

Absolutely. Of course! Scotland would be more than welcomed by the vultures of europe.

[eFestivals]

do you think the euro is still his preferred choice then?

The guy's a control freak, so I reckon not. His preference would be a new Scottish currency, I reckon.

Much like the CU thing now, I reckon the Euro suggestion in the past was more about the politically possible than the preferred option. It's easier to put your faith in something that can be seen to be working than it is to put it in something which doesn't yet exist.

imagine if they get indy and end up with the euro, which would be inevitable wouldnt it? That should make any prospective yes-er shudder. Italy are back in recession today. Inflation is at 0.1%. Their debt pile is massive. If they still had the lira they'd be laughing.

Yes-ers point to Sweden agreeing in 1994 to use the Euro, and twenty years later Sweden are saying "it's not happened and it never will happen". Those yes-ers like to believe they can do the same.

And yet the situation now is totally different to how it was back then. There's all of the following for why the EU is likely to take a different line with iScotland:-

1. commitment to joining the Euro is now an absolute requirement of EU membership (for new members; older members may have an opt-out).

2. no new member EU has ever got a single opt-out. (iScotland believes it will get more opt-out than any existing member has).

3. the markets are looking for signals from the EU as to its absolute commitment to the Euro.

4. allowing iScotland even the slightest bit wriggle-room towards the Euro is likely to be taken by the markets as a sign of no-commitment, that the Euro is a dead project, and therefore the Euro currency is a dodo.

5. Montenegro is currently being denied EU membership because of its weakness in matching the EU's Euro-joining criteria. There's many parts to that but the biggest is its central bank and what currency7(s) are being used within the country. Unlike iScotland it actually has a central bank (a Euro requirement), but its influence on the Montenegro economy is minimal because most people use the Euro, and rather counter-intuitively (but very sensibly, all the same) their use of the Euro is denying them formal Euro use.

The Euro is not the dead duck you've suggested. It's ridden out the world crisis far better than the UKP has done.

Italy's problems are not it's currency. Going back to the Lira would merely grant them a bit of time in kicking the can down the road (much as devaluing the pound has done for the UK).

[eFestivals]

You really think the EU want to expand the euro zone in the next few years? The current one is still held together by blu tack & sticky tape...mainly supplied by Germany. It is highly debatable whether it will ever be in a state where expansion is an option, but it sure won't be soon.

As you note, it's hanging together a bit loosely right now.

So the very last thing the EU will be doing is undermining the currency further by admitting new members who are not following the EU entry requirements including an absolute - with commitment to time-frames - commitment to joining the Euro.

There'll be no Swedish situation for iScotland. If the EU did that, the markets would destroy the Euro in a few months.

[eFestivals]

His calls for the pound and a currency union is just another opportunity to turn blame back onto the English when he is forced into using the Euro or use the pound as an interim but with no control.

Barry, that's a level of thinking I'd always th0ought was beyond you.

Very well spotted!

[russycarps]

The guy's a control freak, so I reckon not. His preference would be a new Scottish currency, I reckon.

Much like the CU thing now, I reckon the Euro suggestion in the past was more about the politically possible than the preferred option. It's easier to put your faith in something that can be seen to be working than it is to put it in something which doesn't yet exist.

Yes-ers point to Sweden agreeing in 1994 to use the Euro, and twenty years later Sweden are saying "it's not happened and it never will happen". Those yes-ers like to believe they can do the same.

And yet the situation now is totally different to how it was back then. There's all of the following for why the EU is likely to take a different line with iScotland:-

1. commitment to joining the Euro is now an absolute requirement of EU membership (for new members; older members may have an opt-out).

2. no new member EU has ever got a single opt-out. (iScotland believes it will get more opt-out than any existing member has).

3. the markets are looking for signals from the EU as to its absolute commitment to the Euro.

4. allowing iScotland even the slightest bit wriggle-room towards the Euro is likely to be taken by the markets as a sign of no-commitment, that the Euro is a dead project, and therefore the Euro currency is a dodo.

5. Montenegro is currently being denied EU membership because of its weakness in matching the EU's Euro-joining criteria. There's many parts to that but the biggest is its central bank and what currency7(s) are being used within the country. Unlike iScotland it actually has a central bank (a Euro requirement), but its influence on the Montenegro economy is minimal because most people use the Euro, and rather counter-intuitively (but very sensibly, all the same) their use of the Euro is denying them formal Euro use.

The Euro is not the dead duck you've suggested. It's ridden out the world crisis far better than the UKP has done.

Italy's problems are not it's currency. Going back to the Lira would merely grant them a bit of time in kicking the can down the road (much as devaluing the pound has done for the UK).

I'm all for the euro in principle and have long thought the uk should be a part of it - I very much think more integration between countries is a good thing - but the peripheral countries, of which scotland would be one, will always suffer at the hands of the giants in the current version of the eurozone.

Granted italy is a bit of a basket case, but if their new prime is actually being honest about the reforms he plans on making, kicking the can down the road would have granted him the time to implement them. The fact they cant do that, means the future is pretty bleak.

[eFestivals]

LOL... I can't see him being that much of a mentalist but if he is... I fear for Scotland... A currency based on declining oil reserves and a product that seriously damages your health... Good look with that one Scotland...

having its own currency is something iScotland would have to do before taking up the Euro, so it's not mental. It's the practical option.

And it's actually the best economic option for iScotland too (outside of a CU). The very fact of that oil makes launching its own currency a realistic thing, because it would be a currency that is backed with substance and not merely hope.

There's difficulties off the back of that tho, because the volatility of oil prices would make a petro-currency as iScotland would have subject to those fluctuations.

I actually reckon that rUK would be happy to enter into a supportive agreement with iScotland around its own currency to help lessen that - there's likely to be a pay-off for both sides (tho it depends on oil prices moving only one way).

[eFestivals]

Oh I could see it as a short term option... But no way as a long term option...

yeah, I was only suggesting in the short term, to essentially help Scotland establish and stabilise its new currency.

One of the reasons a CU is a non-starter in practical terms is that no one in Scotland - and so, everywhere else too - sees it as permanent. If the markets suspect just the tiniest bit that it's an arrangement for only the good times of one side, then Sterling would come under speculative attack until the CU collapsed (exactly as happened with Czech Republic and Slovakia).

[CHRLY]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/07/scotland-pound-independence-alex-salmond?CMP=twt_fd

Salmond has spoken on the currency issue. Have to say it's all a bit complicated for me but thought it would be of interest.