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ralph250 Newbie

ralph250

Posted
Posted

seems like there is no-one else, the rumours Ive heard are:

1) Moyes said no

2) Rafa asked for £30m transfer budget plus the cash from Young sale and got told thanks but no thanks

3) They backed down on McClaren due to fan reaction

4) Martinez then turned them down

5) Coyle was interested but didn't want to be seen as being 5th choice..

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eFestivals Mentor

eFestivals

Posted
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Hopefully, though always difficult to say.

I'd say that the stats make it hugely unlikely, tho of course not impossible.

Only 25% of pro-footballer 19 year olds are still playing professional football at 22. While that's unlikely to be the case with Jones (or any other expensive youngster), I'd say that stat is great enough to suggest that few expensive youngsters will live up to their hoped-for potential.

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ralph250 Newbie

ralph250

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Thats what I dont get about the way these sides recruit managers. There doesnt seem to be any long term startegy, it sometimes looks as if they pick teams from a hat. Surely when looking for a manager you have in mind the style of football you want to play, the personality of the manager you want at the club and historical startegy regarding youth development, transfers etc. I also cant see how Martinez and Mcleish fit any set of criteria unless its managers beginning with the letter M.

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ralph250 Newbie

ralph250

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I'd say that the stats make it hugely unlikely, tho of course not impossible.

Only 25% of pro-footballer 19 year olds are still playing professional football at 22. While that's unlikely to be the case with Jones (or any other expensive youngster), I'd say that stat is great enough to suggest that few expensive youngsters will live up to their hoped-for potential.

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eFestivals Mentor

eFestivals

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Assumption, but I'd think that >95% transferred for over £1m would still be playing professionally at 22.

Understand what you're saying but (as you in part say) I'm not sure how relevant that stat is to "expensive youngsters" really.

Huge differences in the ages of recruitment when the assessment of potential is made. Nearly all of those youngsters that fall by the wayside and drop out of the game have probably been recruited between the ages of 8 and 16, where far harder to predict potential. Are they just dominant in their age group because they're a quick grower and thus a foot taller than everyone else, only to get found out when everyone else catches up? Do they look technically proficient at 8 but fail to develop a tactical understanding? decision making, when to release, positioning etc. How they fail to develop physically? or have the dedication to apply themselves professionally?

Not saying there's any guarantees of expensive youth working out (Franny Jeffers etc) as there isn't with any signing fulfilling expectations. Always a risk when estimating potential; whether they plateau out, whether they handle the mental challenges, whether they take on board advice of the manager etc, but far more certainty when assessing a 19 yr old whose represented England at u21 level, played 35 games at premiership level, is more developed physically and mentally. Easier to identify what attributes are already developed and what needs improving.

While it's probably true that those who drop out have been recruited as kids, it's also the case (providing that stat is true; it should be, it's from a book about academies/centres of excellence) that those who drop out between 19 and 22 have been offered pro contracts - so they're expected to make it.

I can't remember what that book said (if it said anything at all) about youngsters who'd played for England u-19s, but there's defo been some drop-outs who've played for England at a younger level.

As for those dropping out who've gone for over £1M, there's plenty who have - Utd (at least) has it's own record with that one, I know.

Edited by eFestivals
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strummer77 Enthusiast

strummer77

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Posted (edited)

Teams have won the league and certainly qualified for CL with far worse players than Adam regularly in the squad. Look at some of the United team this season, far from world class yet a balanced team.

I disagree with this statement. People regulalrly repeat that young players will get better and players will improve playing alongside better players and I dont think theres any research to suggest either are true.

Edited by strummer77
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strummer77 Enthusiast

strummer77

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The young bit had nothting to do with adam its just another saying thats regularly repeated that I dont think has any basis. I would agree that most of the top players improve in their 20s but while the top players are the ones we remember, they are the minority. The vast majority of young players at any top premiership club end up falling down the leagues. For example how many players have liverpool had in their academy in the last 10 years and how many have made it as premiership regulars for any team, it must be a tiny amount.

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eFestivals Mentor

eFestivals

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Anyone know what Sagna was smoking when he did that interview yesterday?

“I can say it's true that Cesc wants to go to Barca”

and

“Samir is happy at Arsenal, but I don't know what the best thing is for his career”

:blink:

eh? :blink:

Both those things are true as far as I know, on the basis of a mass of comments.

It's of course true that Fabregas wants to go to Barca at some point, and I believe it's the case that Nasri is happy to stay at Arsenal as long as he can be convinced that they're showing ambition (thru buys) to match his own.

Why do you think those aren't true? :blink:

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The Nal Grand Master

The Nal

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eh? :blink:

Both those things are true as far as I know, on the basis of a mass of comments.

It's of course true that Fabregas wants to go to Barca at some point, and I believe it's the case that Nasri is happy to stay at Arsenal as long as he can be convinced that they're showing ambition (thru buys) to match his own.

Why do you think those aren't true? :blink:

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eFestivals Mentor

eFestivals

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Yeah they're true but he shouldn't be saying stuff like that. Not his place at all. Effects the bargaining power of the club too.

it's little different at the end of the day in impact onto a club to words made in the other direction, such as Rio praising Nasri as he did the other week. ;)

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