Weather thread

[Mr_Grump]

I'll start things off and be the harbinger of doom...make sure to pack your wellies & waterproofs folks...

 

 

 

 

Edited July 22, 2025 by Mr_Grump
Typo

[Alvoram]

Latest GFS run isn't looking too bad at all... Bit of the wet stuff on Thursday, and a good amount overnight Friday / Saturday, but overall, not too bad at all... Seems to be an improving picture with each successive run over the last 36 hours. 🙂 

[Mr_Grump]

We have to remember that Penrith & the surrounding area has it's own micro climate...the land that time forgot

 

[Pooly JP]

Was forecast to be terrible the other year and other than a downpour on the Sunday we got away with it.
Have faith, will never be as bad as 2014 

[Mr_Grump]

3 minutes ago, Pooly JP said:

Was forecast to be terrible the other year and other than a downpour on the Sunday we got away with it.
Have faith, will never be as bad as 2014 

Wasn't 2019 a bad one? 

[Alvoram]

1 hour ago, Mr_Grump said:

We have to remember that Penrith & the surrounding area has it's own micro climate...the land that time forgot

 

Haha reminds me of what I always say to the OH... "Those lake don't fill themselves you know!"

[Pooly JP]

6 hours ago, Mr_Grump said:

Wasn't 2019 a bad one? 

Yeah I think there was pretty bad thunderstorms on the Thursday that year but did improve. 

[Goer190]

Not going to get too fixed on the weather until Monday. Often find the met office is the most reliable for Cumbria which only currently goes up to Tuesday.

 

Wouldn't be Kendal without a bit of rain anyway eh

 

Edit: Also worth noting it's be scheduled to rain pretty much every day for the last 2 weeks in Cumbria and personally where I am there has been very little.

Edited July 23, 2025 by Goer190
Adding

[Alvoram]

2 hours ago, Goer190 said:

Not going to get too fixed on the weather until Monday. Often find the met office is the most reliable for Cumbria which only currently goes up to Tuesday.

 

Wouldn't be Kendal without a bit of rain anyway eh

 

Edit: Also worth noting it's be scheduled to rain pretty much every day for the last 2 weeks in Cumbria and personally where I am there has been very little.

Presumably NOT the Met office forecast then? 😂

In the style of @briddj here's what the GFS 00z is saying. (I had to pull out of glasto 25, so this makes me feel a bit better!) 

THURSDAY

Highs of 14/15c, barely any rain in the area, maybe a little drizzle here and there, but nothing worth worrying about. 



FRIDAY

Again, barely any rain in the area, and what there may be, is again very light. You can start to see high pressure taking over, especially in the South West. Temps are rising with highs of 16 / 17c possible.



SATURDAY

Dry day, similar to the Friday, perfect festival conditions if a 'touch' on the cool side, with highs of around 15c. Definitely can't grumble for this part of the country though. 



SUNDAY

Bone dry and much warmer, with highs of 20c / 21c. You can see the high really has a grip on the country now, producing absolutely perfect festival conditions in Cumbria, just in time for The Prodigy to take to the stage.

It's worth noting that some runs over the last few days have had this high move over much earlier, making the festival even warmer and drier throughout more of the weekend, HOWEVER, other runs have it coming over on the Monday / Tuesday after, which makes the festival a wetter prospect. It really is up in the air right now. 😉 



----------------

Now, for some transparency, I've cherry picked the 00z, because the 06z, which is currently completing, doesn't look nearly as favourable, such is the back and forth nature of these advanced runs. We'll start to get a more consistent picture by the end of this week hopefully. I'm not going to go full briddj and post every run, but I may do one or two more from the weekend on. 🙂 That is, of course, unless @briddj happens to be bored? 😉

Edited July 23, 2025 by Alvoram

[bobby h]

loved this weather thread for glasto, missed out this year so got kendal tickets so really looking forward to the updates 🙂

[briddj]

21 hours ago, Alvoram said:

Presumably NOT the Met office forecast then? 😂

In the style of @briddj here's what the GFS 00z is saying. (I had to pull out of glasto 25, so this makes me feel a bit better!) 

THURSDAY

Highs of 14/15c, barely any rain in the area, maybe a little drizzle here and there, but nothing worth worrying about. 



FRIDAY

Again, barely any rain in the area, and what there may be, is again very light. You can start to see high pressure taking over, especially in the South West. Temps are rising with highs of 16 / 17c possible.



SATURDAY

Dry day, similar to the Friday, perfect festival conditions if a 'touch' on the cool side, with highs of around 15c. Definitely can't grumble for this part of the country though. 



SUNDAY

Bone dry and much warmer, with highs of 20c / 21c. You can see the high really has a grip on the country now, producing absolutely perfect festival conditions in Cumbria, just in time for The Prodigy to take to the stage.

It's worth noting that some runs over the last few days have had this high move over much earlier, making the festival even warmer and drier throughout more of the weekend, HOWEVER, other runs have it coming over on the Monday / Tuesday after, which makes the festival a wetter prospect. It really is up in the air right now. 😉 



----------------

Now, for some transparency, I've cherry picked the 00z, because the 06z, which is currently completing, doesn't look nearly as favourable, such is the back and forth nature of these advanced runs. We'll start to get a more consistent picture by the end of this week hopefully. I'm not going to go full briddj and post every run, but I may do one or two more from the weekend on. 🙂 That is, of course, unless @briddj happens to be bored? 😉

 

I'm at Tramlines all weekend so happy for you to take on responsibilities. 😆

[Alvoram]

It's not looking 'great' but then it's not looking bad either... Most runs seem to agree on some light rain being in the area for a couple of days, with the other 2 days being dry. 

Will post the 12z or 18z later, depending which is the latest when I get time to sit down. 

[Alvoram]

Ok, so a quick update... The latest GFS doesn't look pretty, but it's important to note, before I post anything, that different runs have been very different, there's little consistency in timing still. The only thing that has been consistently showing up is that at some point next weekend, or the week after, the UK is going to see a return to high pressure and warmer temperatures on the whole. 

With that being said, here today's 18z

Thursday

Some rain around for most of the day, with a possibility of some heavier stuff overnight into Friday morning. But note, most runs have not shown this much rain around on Thursday (or any other day.) Max temps of around 15-16c



Friday

After some significant rain overnight, there is potential for showers most of the day until late evening. Again this run is a bit of an outlier compared to recent runs in terms of the volume of water falling. But I promised I'd do one this evening, so here I am. (The 12z just six hours earlier predicting an almost bone dry Friday and Saturday!) Max temps of 14c



Saturday

Saturday is bone dry on this run. With highs of 17, maybe even 18c. 



Sunday

Sunday sees a little rainfall overnight, but by 3pm it's all but dried up. It remains nice and dry for The Prodigy with the next rain clouds arriving overhead early Monday morning. Sunday sees highs of 18-20c as that high starts to take hold of the UK.



Again, for anybody that hasn't done this before in the Glastonbury thread, don't be disheartened by this. These are not forecasts, I'm NOT a professional. These are just single runs on one of many weather forecasting models, interpreted by an idiot, (that's me, lol.) In 6 hours time, the next run will say something different. The ECM (a different model) just came on board today with the GFS high pressure predictions, and is predicting a decent weekend. So it's all still to play for, but get those walking boots / wellies ready as a sacrifice to the weather gods. 

[Comfy Bean]

Anyone that turns up at Kendal Calling without wellies is bonkers.

 

[bobby h]

defo taking wellies....how else can i sneak my booze in lol

[Alvoram]

12 hours ago, Comfy Bean said:

Anyone that turns up at Kendal Calling without wellies is bonkers.

 

Have never taken wellies to Kendal, Drownload or anywhere else. Have never owned or worn wellies in my life, and yet I practically live on a farm. (I don't but I live amongst three farms, and have dogs that need walking in all weather.) 

Good waterproof walking boots... Merrell MOAB 3 mid gtx for the last 6 years... They've never failed me, even when all were losing their wellies and their balance at Download last year, I stayed on my feet, and those feet stayed dry. 

Should I buy some wellies purely as a sacrifice? 🙈😂

[Alvoram]

Todays GFS 12z is looking incredible!!!!

Not going to do a full update, but the high moves in earlier and further North. Nothing more than a couple of the very lightest of light showers on Thursday and early Friday, if anything at all that is... Then bone dry all weekend, until Monday morning. 17c ish on Thursday and Friday, 18-19c on Saturday and Sunday...

STICK STICK STICK

[Mr_Grump]

I decided to ask a few AI bots what the most accurate forecasting site is in the UK and the general response was the Met Office.

This is the latest forecast from them for Pooley Bridge (the nearest site to the festival).

 

Wellies are still travelling though (along with some factor 15!).

 

 

 

[Alvoram]

3 hours ago, Mr_Grump said:

I decided to ask a few AI bots what the most accurate forecasting site is in the UK and the general response was the Met Office.

This is the latest forecast from them for Pooley Bridge (the nearest site to the festival).

 

Wellies are still travelling though (along with some factor 15!).

 

 

 

It's looking much better isn't it. 🎉🎉🎉

BTW The UKV is very accurate for the UK. BUT it's a short range model, and only currently goes up to Saturday, so the forecast you've shared consists of data from other models too.

The Met office uses a number of models and ensembles. Including the UKV for short range, and the ECM (ECMWF) that I mentioned yesterday, for medium to long. We cannot currently get a full image for the weekend from UKV, hence using models like GFS and ECMWF for the medium to long range. 🙂 

By wednesday we'll be able to see the entire weekend in UKV, (in either the charts themselves, or UK forecasts like the Met Office, BBC etc etc.) And so we'll have more certainty. 

[Goer190]

Met Office looks pretty decent. Only issue really is Sunday and if I could pick one day to rain it would be Sunday...

[efcfanwirral]

I'll take that Met Office one, especially compared to the others earlier in the week!!

[Alvoram]

Met Office, GFS, ECM all pretty much in agreement. And fantastic news really after earlier GFS models. 

Bit of rain tomorrow (maybe)

Bit more rain Saturday night into early Sunday.

Posting the Met Office screens since people seem to prefer them (and they are easier to read) 

[Comfy Bean]

If The KC Teams bad weather luck holds, it will piss down Saturday night in to Sunday. Wellies packed. Ideally they stay in the car but it’s the Lake District.

See you in the fields 🥳🍻

[efcfanwirral]

Monday looks pretty horrific. If that moves...

[Goer190]

Well I've came home with a tan so the weather did its job. This morning was a bit rough though...