news & politics:discussion

[Ozanne]

Plus the Greens have parachuted in a candidate from London which given they mucked up the council might not go down too well. 

[Justiceforcedave]

45 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Plus the Greens have parachuted in a candidate from London which given they mucked up the council might not go down too well. 

The council stuff will certainly have made a difference and as Savlia said Caroline Lucas did have a lot of personal support.

That said, the Brighton Pavilion seat is full of lefties and I expect Labour’s more centrist approach will not be to everyone’s taste. We’re talking about turning around 20,000 majority. That’s a mission and a half.

I reckon the gap will close, but ultimately it’ll stay Green and that’s who I’m voting for.

 

[mattiloy]

51 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Plus the Greens have parachuted in a candidate from London which given they mucked up the council might not go down too well. 

She is one of the few impressive greens though. Good in interviews, decent record in the London Assembly.

I think she’ll win. I also think they have a chance in Bristol West. Starmer is a polarising figure whether you’ll admit it or not, and I expect that the concentration of people who really hate the direction the Labour party has gone in will secure those seats. Plus thanks to membership numbers and council representation the green party is richer and has more activists than before. If they concentrate their resources in those two seats they’ll win.

One major problem for the greens is always image- for example that they’ll put forward candidates like this.

A former tory candidate who apparently had a damascene conversion in both politics and identity in the last few years…

Now, not wishing to cast aspersions myself because it could be legit and then fair enough - its just bad politics, really calls into question the professionalism of the party. A lot of people are going to question the legitimacy of her motives and it is inevitable that the party will suffer nationally from her candidacy.

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

The council stuff will certainly have made a difference and as Savlia said Caroline Lucas did have a lot of personal support.

That said, the Brighton Pavilion seat is full of lefties and I expect Labour’s more centrist approach will not be to everyone’s taste. We’re talking about turning around 20,000 majority. That’s a mission and a half.

I reckon the gap will close, but ultimately it’ll stay Green and that’s who I’m voting for.

 

ooof, 20,000 majority? Yeah that will be difficult for Labour to overturn.

[steviewevie]

The Greens appeal to people because you know, who doesn't like the environment and animals and trees and things, and they appeal to those engaged on the left who hate starmer and centrists etc....but when comes to a general election most people don't take them seriously, they don't have the money and support that the main parties do, they don't have any well known people, no one even knows who their leader is.

[mattiloy]

11 hours ago, Neil said:

You were claiming that there'd be a green surge at the next election at labours expense. No sign of it.

 

3% could be massive in fptp. Without checking there must be 100+ marginals that have <= 3% majorities.

That said, its not going to be uniformly distributed. It’ll be higher in leftie seats where the Labour majority is greater. So the impact should admittedly be small.

There is a chance though that they make inroads in some of the blue wall type seats that Labour are trying to win however. If I remember correctly they have already had surprisingly strong performance in the south east in the 2023 locals. If they overperform there they could keep Labour out of a handful of seats and if things get tighter as they usually do as election day looms, a handful of seats could be the difference between majority and plurality.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, mattiloy said:

3% could be massive in fptp. Without checking there must be 100+ marginals that have <= 3% majorities.

That said, its not going to be uniformly distributed. It’ll be higher in leftie seats where the Labour majority is greater. So the impact should admittedly be small.

There is a chance though that they make inroads in some of the blue wall type seats that Labour are trying to win however. If I remember correctly they have already had surprisingly strong performance in the south east in the 2023 locals. If they overperform there they could keep Labour out of a handful of seats and if things get tighter as they usually do as election day looms, a handful of seats could be the difference between majority and plurality.

you never know they could give the tories a majority.

[Ozanne]

25 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

The council stuff will certainly have made a difference and as Savlia said Caroline Lucas did have a lot of personal support.

That said, the Brighton Pavilion seat is full of lefties and I expect Labour’s more centrist approach will not be to everyone’s taste. We’re talking about turning around 20,000 majority. That’s a mission and a half.

I reckon the gap will close, but ultimately it’ll stay Green and that’s who I’m voting for.

 

Brighton is full of progressives/Lefties but the council still went Labour last year so they can’t have been put off too much by Starmer’s Labour moving to the centre left.

The Greens should hold the seat but I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour win it given the reasons I’ve outlined. Ultimately that’ll be the most they get though, they won’t get more than 1 seat and even that will be on a reduced majority; given the climate crises it should be concerning for Green supports they can’t breakthrough anymore. 

[Justiceforcedave]

13 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The Greens should hold the seat but I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour win it given the reasons I’ve outlined. Ultimately that’ll be the most they get though, they won’t get more than 1 seat and even that will be on a reduced majority; given the climate crises it should be concerning for Green supports they can’t breakthrough anymore. 

I guess we'll see what kind of support they have come polling day.

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

I guess we'll see what kind of support they have come polling day.

Traditionally fringe parties like the Greens see an uptick in support mid-term which then tends to get squeezed by the main parties at the GE. That’s not to say it’ll definitely happen again but that is what we see normally.

[lazyred]

14 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

I think thats a fairly good reading of what will happen.

The only reason to vote for Labour is just so we don't get another 4 or 5 years of this terrible and incompetent lot.  They are out of ideas and energy.  But Keir isn't going to be doing anything radically politically great.  Just steering the sinking ship UK on a slightly better course.

Overall I think its a pretty depressing outlook for us but we have few options.  We will be suffering the choices the UK made in regards of 13 years of tories and brexit.

I think Labour can make a big difference but it will take time. and they need a second term. The first 2 years will be tough and they will need support against the usual betrayal, no better than the tories narrative.

 

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, lazyred said:

I think Labour can make a big difference but it will take time. and they need a second term. The first 2 years will be tough and they will need support against the usual betrayal, no better than the tories narrative.

 

if they only get a small majority and things don't improve then they won't get a 2nd term (actually that will depend on the state of the Tory party too).

[Neil]

1 hour ago, mattiloy said:

3% could be massive in fptp. Without checking there must be 100+ marginals that have <= 3% majorities.

That said, its not going to be uniformly distributed. It’ll be higher in leftie seats where the Labour majority is greater. So the impact should admittedly be small.

There is a chance though that they make inroads in some of the blue wall type seats that Labour are trying to win however. If I remember correctly they have already had surprisingly strong performance in the south east in the 2023 locals. If they overperform there they could keep Labour out of a handful of seats and if things get tighter as they usually do as election day looms, a handful of seats could be the difference between majority and plurality.

there's no suggestion in the polls of a move by labour voters to the greens. stoke  and elsewhere suggests they move to the kippers.

[Neil]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

will need support against the usual betrayal, no better than the tories narrative.

will need support against the soft left of mattiloy/etc.

[Neil]

2 hours ago, mattiloy said:

I also think they have a chance in Bristol West.

my constituency, if they were going to win here would have happened at last election. thangham is well thought of and a rising star in labour.

Edited January 14 by Neil

[Neil]

13 minutes ago, Neil said:

my constituency, if they were going to win here would have happened at last election. thangham is well thought of and a rising star in labour.

Should get an indication of any growing green support in Bristol with the Kingswood byevelection in the next few weeks. Kingswood isn't actually Bristol but is it's own town on the edge, a good working class area. Ex coal mining and used to have the Douglas motorbike factory.

Bristol North has got much more gentryfied (rich Londoners mostly) and less green since last election.

[steviewevie]

 

[Nobody Interesting]

19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

£28 billion every year as announced in 2021

became £28 billion  a year in years 3,4 and 5

became £28 billion a year in years 3, 4 and 5 but that includes £8 billion a year the Tories have pledged

becomes £28 billion in total.

Forgive me but how is this not rolling back on pledges and how and why should anybody trust anything at all will be spent?

and as for votes for the Greens meaning we get a  Tory government - in one breath you all say the Green surge is not there, in the next you all say it will mean a Tory government!!

If you actually looked at all seats (harder cos of boundary changes) and added in 6% Green votes and took all of them off Labour it would make no difference to the outcome of 90% of seats and as the Green vote will come from all parties likely 95% of seats totally uneffected.

If it meant that Labour got 5% less seats then a hung parliament becomes a bit more likely and therefore the reasons to vote for the party you really want to vote for are bigger than ever.

I look forward to the usual denials of policy change, the insulting accusations about a 'vote for the Greens is a vote for the Tories' and all the normal blinkered thinking from all the usual suspects.


A policy is for life, not just a conference speech and  a quick headline.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

£28 billion every year as announced in 2021

became £28 billion  a year in years 3,4 and 5

became £28 billion a year in years 3, 4 and 5 but that includes £8 billion a year the Tories have pledged

becomes £28 billion in total.

Forgive me but how is this not rolling back on pledges and how and why should anybody trust anything at all will be spent?

and as for votes for the Greens meaning we get a  Tory government - in one breath you all say the Green surge is not there, in the next you all say it will mean a Tory government!!

If you actually looked at all seats (harder cos of boundary changes) and added in 6% Green votes and took all of them off Labour it would make no difference to the outcome of 90% of seats and as the Green vote will come from all parties likely 95% of seats totally uneffected.

If it meant that Labour got 5% less seats then a hung parliament becomes a bit more likely and therefore the reasons to vote for the party you really want to vote for are bigger than ever.

I look forward to the usual denials of policy change, the insulting accusations about a 'vote for the Greens is a vote for the Tories' and all the normal blinkered thinking from all the usual suspects.


A policy is for life, not just a conference speech and  a quick headline.

vote for the Greens is a vote for the Tories

[Ryan1984]

https://x.com/dave43law/status/1746490840984203650?s=46&t=0L-HQje0RJTtiVIvA-C-dQ

[Ozanne]

The policy hasn’t changed, just the funding for it is different. Britain will still use clean energy by 2030.

If you genuinely want to fight climate change then Labour have the policies for it and are the party that has the most realistic hope of winning the next election.

[steviewevie]

[Neil]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

that depends what your wage is? was harder for a youngster to buy a house in 1982 than now.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Neil said:

that depends what your wage is? was harder for a youngster to buy a house in 1982 than now.

Because of mortgages you get now? Or because young people earn more now relative to 82?