news & politics:discussion

[Neil]

Just now, Skip997 said:

For once I'm in agreement with Barry here.

We've also got to factor in the stupidity of the electorate and their tendency to do the "turkeys voting for Christmas" thing.

yes but the atmosphere now is more like 1996 than 2019

[Skip997]

26 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

So they might want change but that change isn't necessarily Keir.  If on election day they have a choice between two people they don't really want then people tend to go for what they know which isn't good for Keir or Labour when you need historically high swings.

Better the Tory you know?

[Guest]

I’ve said for ages that because 2019 was such a bad result for Labour it is very difficult for them to win a majority at the next election. It’ll take the largest swing in U.K. elections history therefore a hung Parliament is a very real possibility.

However we should be cautious to look back on previous results and think that just because polls have narrowed but a certain amount that they will again, it’s likely that they will be possible that they might not.

Sunak is also dreadful and will be a liability in a GE campaign.

[steviewevie]

58 minutes ago, Neil said:

don't think hung parliament  - the country wants change, the polls are around accurate i reckon.

not sure what he's on about..fish man talking out his bum again...Ozanne has been saying for ages that he expect polls to tighten and that a hung parliament or small majority for labour is more likely...

and I think so too...but think you're right about country wanting a change, that's how it feels...so I reckon a Labour win but a small/medium majority is most likely at moment, but it could also be a landslide. Problem for labour is Starmer is still pretty unpopular, or at the least not very popular, he just happens to be more popular than Sunak...so leaders are weak points for both parties that the other will expoit in run up to the election.

Edited January 5, 2024 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

woah...great minds...

[Neil]

34 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

But the politics are not...

Yes people want change now as they did in 1996 but the key difference is Keir is not Tony.

Tony appealed to those middle class folk who really get to decide the election.  I don't think Keir has the same pull.

So they might want change but that change isn't necessarily Keir.  If on election day they have a choice between two people they don't really want then people tend to go for what they know which isn't good for Keir or Labour when you need historically high swings.

The change wanted is not the Tories. I think most people can see that they're not making anything better.

So someone else should have a chance.i agree that starmer doesn't have Blair's charisma to appeal to the middle classes but I don't see that as a deal-breaker.he has a work record which just ooozes competence. I think most people can see that he's not a charlatan like Johnson and others and that's a big and positive change.

[lost]

I think we'll see a labour majority but more to due with Tories staying home/voting reform. As I've said before your not going to get the Tory vote out with the highest taxes since world war 2 and the highest immigration figures ever.

Starmer has promised to track the OBR forcasts for deficit reduction and also get immigration down so those two things are not going to scare people to vote tory to keep labour out.

Edited January 5, 2024 by lost

[steviewevie]

In the end Starmer has also been pretty lucky...Johnson doing his thing, then Truss doing her thing, then the SNP doing their thing...on top of cost of living crisis. But it isn't all luck, a lot of it is down to some pretty draconian party management, and also much to many people's frustration they are not coming out with any explicitly left wing policies (yet) or talking about raising taxes or spending or now even borrowing because any of that is what Tories and their press mates will attack them on over and over again. Over cautious and uninspiring maybe, but so far it is working.

[steviewevie]

Anyway, everyone's fave labour leader ever was on lbc this morning...

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

you're welcome

[Skip997]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Not before time

Just maybe the tide is turning

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

not sure what he's on about..fish man talking out his bum again...Ozanne has been saying for ages that he expect polls to tighten and that a hung parliament or small majority for labour is more likely...

and I think so too...but think you're right about country wanting a change, that's how it feels...so I reckon a Labour win but a small/medium majority is most likely at moment, but it could also be a landslide. Problem for labour is Starmer is still pretty unpopular, or at the least not very popular, he just happens to be more popular than Sunak...so leaders are weak points for both parties that the other will expoit in run up to the election.

I don’t think people realise how big an ask it is for Labour to win a majority of just 1. It’s so difficult and the fact that polls have shown for 2 years that Labour are on for a majority is testament to how well they have turned the party round. 

[Justiceforcedave]

Had a Labour canvasser at the door this week. I told him I'm rooting for Labour but will be voting Green.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think people realise how big an ask it is for Labour to win a majority of just 1. It’s so difficult and the fact that polls have shown for 2 years that Labour are on for a majority is testament to how well they have turned the party round. 

yep - but I reckon SNP/Sturgeon problems helps a lot...losing Scotland was always a big a problem for Labour.

[Skip997]

1 minute ago, Justiceforcedave said:

Had a Labour canvasser at the door this week. I told him I'm rooting for Labour but will be voting Green.

Good on you

The only party worth considering

[steviewevie]

Yes, I want Labour to win so I won't vote for them either.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Yes, I want Labour to win so I won't vote for them either.

Ha yeah seems a bit strange. You’re essentially voting Tory unless you’re maybe in Brighton. 

[Justiceforcedave]

Just now, Ozanne said:

Ha yeah seems a bit strange. You’re essentially voting Tory unless you’re maybe in Brighton. 

ZING! We have a winner.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Ha yeah seems a bit strange. You’re essentially voting Tory unless you’re maybe in Brighton. 

or Bristol maybe...?

[steviewevie]

Are Greens still likely to win in Brighton without Lucas? 

[philipsteak]

1 hour ago, Neil said:

private eye were on it for years before it was admitted as an IT cock-up.

I was never a particularly regular Private Eye reader but I remember them talking about it a lot, well before anyone else seemed to have picked up on it. 

From what I remember and what I've read more recently, it really doesn't seem to have been exaggerated for dramatic effect for the show. That pretty much was what happened. 

Absolutely nuts.

[steviewevie]

Not far from my work office...should have gone up there to cheer...