U.S. Presidential Election

[maelzoid]

This is huge. How is Trump's lead in very red Kansas massively less than it was in the two previous elections? If he's losing votes there, where is he getting them from to be polling so high nationally?

I honestly think the pollsters have their finger on the scales elsewhere and didn't think anything of significance would come from Kansas. It just don't add up.

[maelzoid]

1 hour ago, FloopFiller said:

As for him doing more rallies in places he’s unlikely to win, that’s just Trump being Trump, and if anything is just a farewell tour before he has to stop doing the thing that he loves most of all in all of this - talking to crowds of adoring fans. 

 Also, there's a sense that he is now riling up the base to cause trouble when the result goes against him. MSG certainly looked like that.

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

This is huge. How is Trump's lead in very red Kansas massively less than it was in the two previous elections? If he's losing votes there, where is he getting them from to be polling so high nationally?

I honestly think the pollsters have their finger on the scales elsewhere and didn't think anything of significance would come from Kansas. It just don't add up.

what were the polls saying for Kansas before 2016 and 2020?

I think the women vote will hit Trump hard, but will it be enough?

[FloopFiller]

28 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

 Also, there's a sense that he is now riling up the base to cause trouble when the result goes against him. MSG certainly looked like that.

Been his playbook all along. ‘We’re gonna win, but if we don’t win, it could only be because the other side has cheated and we need to fight like hell to stop them’. IMO he knows he’s losing so has just gone in to full blown ‘let’s steal this’ mode. 
 

He’s not the sitting president this time so he actually has less power to try and overturn it again, but he’s already talked just a couple of days ago about some kind of plan he and Mike Johnson have in place so he’s not even being subtle about his intentions to not accept the results again. Fully expecting another January 6-alike shitshow which will once again fail but have his base thinking Kamala is an illegitimate President. Just hope that some Republicans have the balls to denounce what goes on this time, although not holding my breath on that. 

Edited October 29, 2024 by FloopFiller

[steviewevie]

19 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

Been his playbook all along. ‘We’re gonna win, but if we don’t win, it could only be because the other side has cheated and we need to fight like hell to stop them’. IMO he knows he’s losing so has just gone in to full blown ‘let’s steal this’ mode. 
 

He’s not the sitting president this time so he actually has less power to try and overturn it again, but he’s already talked just a couple of days ago about some kind of plan he and Mike Johnson have in place so he’s not even being subtle about his intentions to not accept the results again. Fully expecting another January 6-alike shitshow which will once again fail but have his base thinking Kamala is an illegitimate President. Just hope that some Republicans have the balls to denounce what goes on this time, although not holding my breath on that. 

Doesn't he have a court case about Jan 6h coup thingy coming up...if something like that happens again and he's incited it, he's going to prison...so that might stop him going full on with all that.

I have read a lot about Democrat team very downbeat and worried about their chances, and Trump's lot being very optimistic...so either both sides are playing psychological games, or their internal polling are telling them something.

[SticklinchJoe]

Any Puerto Ricans here? 

[FloopFiller]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I have read a lot about Democrat team very downbeat and worried about their chances, and Trump's lot being very optimistic...so either both sides are playing psychological games, or their internal polling are telling them something.

That just lines up with how both sides always act - Democrats erring on the side of caution to the point of self sabotage and Republicans being vocally overly confident so that if things don’t go their way they can claim cheating. 
 

Also, not sure exactly where you get your info from but there’s been a huge disinformation campaign from the right alluding to Democrats being in panic mode and it mostly seems like utter bullshit. From what I’ve seen from people working on Kamala’s campaign, they’re mostly thinking they’ve got the votes where it matters, especially as early voting results are coming in. Those Kansas results posted earlier are a good indication that Trump is losing votes, not gaining. 

[steviewevie]

13 minutes ago, FloopFiller said:

That just lines up with how both sides always act - Democrats erring on the side of caution to the point of self sabotage and Republicans being vocally overly confident so that if things don’t go their way they can claim cheating. 
 

Also, not sure exactly where you get your info from but there’s been a huge disinformation campaign from the right alluding to Democrats being in panic mode and it mostly seems like utter bullshit. From what I’ve seen from people working on Kamala’s campaign, they’re mostly thinking they’ve got the votes where it matters, especially as early voting results are coming in. Those Kansas results posted earlier are a good indication that Trump is losing votes, not gaining. 

Tuesday briefing: Some Democrats are grimly convinced that Trump is going to win. What does the evidence show? | Donald Trump | The Guardian

[FloopFiller]

7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Tuesday briefing: Some Democrats are grimly convinced that Trump is going to win. What does the evidence show? | Donald Trump | The Guardian

So yeah, Democrats being overly cautious as per usual, but I get it - if Trump wins, there’s a whole world of pain that’s gonna be inflicted on his enemies and the people of America. It’s really terrifying stuff. But if Kamala wins, what do conservatives really stand to lose? Other than their totally made up problems of wokeness taking over or it being the end of America, there really isn’t anything real there, so it makes sense that Dems are the ones worrying because they’ve realistically got the most to lose.

 

But like I’ve also said, it’s far more exciting and lucrative for the media to play this out as an equal race. Maybe that’ll prove to be true

come election night/week, but all common sense at this point + the way Trump is already laying the groundwork for it being a rigged election would say he’s gonna lose.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, FloopFiller said:

So yeah, Democrats being overly cautious as per usual, but I get it - if Trump wins, there’s a whole world of pain that’s gonna be inflicted on his enemies and the people of America. It’s really terrifying stuff. But if Kamala wins, what do conservatives really stand to lose? Other than their totally made up problems of wokeness taking over or it being the end of America, there really isn’t anything real there, so it makes sense that Dems are the ones worrying because they’ve realistically got the most to lose.

 

But like I’ve also said, it’s far more exciting and lucrative for the media to play this out as an equal race. Maybe that’ll prove to be true

come election night/week, but all common sense at this point + the way Trump is already laying the groundwork for it being a rigged election would say he’s gonna lose.

ok...but the main polling companies have their reputations to worry about...so they're not going to play along with the whole media narrative or what Republican's might want it to look like. So, polling says it's close, within margin of error nationally, and in swing states...and that is probably where we are. And over recent weeks Trump has closed the gap nationally after Harris' brat summer moment ended, and if they're evens nationally I reckon that is bad news for Harris.

[FloopFiller]

We’ll see. In a weeks time I could totally eat sh*t on this as Trump heads for a decisive victory, but I just think pollsters are being overly cautious this time and aren’t willing to give either side a proper lead. Far easier to come back from ‘we had them level pegging but didn’t quite account x, y, z’ than ‘we gave Trump the lead and he’s just been pummelled… so we f**ked that up’. 

[kalifire]

 

[FloopFiller]

Nothing convinces me more that he knows he’s losing than him continuing to bemoan Biden stepping aside and Kamala stepping in. Genuinely hilarious him acting like he gives a f**k about Biden no longer being his opponent other than the fact he thought he had it in the bag and then in one fell swoop that all changed:

 

 

[steviewevie]

Lewis Goodall fast becoming a national treasure

 

[steviewevie]

[sime]

This new video is a really good analysis by the always trustworthy MeidasTouch Network of the true data driving the polls. It gives a realistic look at what's going on outside of mainstream media and gives me hope for democracy.

 

 

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Was listening to Rest Is Politics podcast this morning and they're pretty confident that Harris will win, especially Rory Stewart. They think it's the women vote that will win it for Harris.

[steviewevie]

Biden is a liability, he needs to shut the f**k up. This is like Clinton's deplorables..and how you lose an election.

 

[1986]

Agreed that this is the kind of thing the Repub’s will leap on and dent the Dem’s momentum. Just another example of this nightmare we’re living in that calling out racism for what it is, is seen as worse than the racism itself.

[steviewevie]

My brother who lives in US says he's going to vote Green because there's no difference between Harris and Trump. This is the problem, there are a lot of stupid people over there.

[FloopFiller]

Worst thing about the Biden comment is that is steals focus away from the MSG rally, but realistically I don’t think it’s gonna damage Harris at all, and I’m sure Trump will say something in the next 24 hours that will shift the focus right back on to him.

[FloopFiller]

But yeah, maybe let’s keep Biden away from people and cameras for the next week given his tendency for gaffes like this 😅

[kalifire]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Biden is a liability, he needs to shut the f**k up. This is like Clinton's deplorables..and how you lose an election.

 

Luckily the wider context is an even bigger faux pas at Trump’s MSG rally, so I think damage will be limited. 

[kalifire]

Is anyone prepared to call it at this point?