Football 2013-2014

[thetime]

That's the point: nothing changes with the part that's missing the most, which is a bit of Scholes-ey style steel in the middle.

There's too much missing all-round in the team for a we'll-score-one-more-than-you tactic to bring the necessary improvement across all remaining games - the times it would work would be in the games they'd win anyway.

[TheGayTent]

That's the point: nothing changes with the part that's missing the most, which is a bit of Scholes-ey style steel in the middle.

[eFestivals]

I think your really overcomplicating the stats. Man u are 6 points behind Liverpool and play them at home. If they best them its a 3 point deficit.

where they each finish in relation to each other is not decided by one game, but by all of the games they've yet to play.

Liverpool will drop around 17 points in their remaining games, which means that Utd would have to drop only 10 points to finish above them.

It's not impossible, but for Utd to display title-winning form from now till the end of the season? It ain't gonna happen.

So if Utd were to finish above Liverpool, it'll be due to Liverpool fucking up and not any great form from Utd.

Will Liverpool fuck up that much? Might happen I suppose, but I don't see it. At-worst they're the 5th best team from their available squad, and if they were to finish 5th their form won't have dropped by very much at all.

[eFestivals]

If provider is upgraded from Young to Mata, that's no loss of defensive workrate and a hell of an improvement in provider.

yep, but it'll only really give much effect against the teams you'd beat anyway.

It's the better teams you need to be beating, and they'd exploit the weakness in the middle.

And while I agree the team needs a bit of steel, I do think Fellaini should be able to provide a base level of it. He's been in dreadful form since signing but the player he was at Everton (who was definitely overrated but was still good) would be a better option than Cleverley.

You could be right. I'd forgotten completely about Fellani.

[pink_triangle]

where they each finish in relation to each other is not decided by one game, but by all of the games they've yet to play.

Liverpool will drop around 17 points in their remaining games, which means that Utd would have to drop only 10 points to finish above them.

It's not impossible, but for Utd to display title-winning form from now till the end of the season? It ain't gonna happen.

So if Utd were to finish above Liverpool, it'll be due to Liverpool fucking up and not any great form from Utd.

Will Liverpool fuck up that much? Might happen I suppose, but I don't see it. At-worst they're the 5th best team from their available squad, and if they were to finish 5th their form won't have dropped by very much at all.

[LondonTom]

Can't see many folk there tonight.

Edited January 21, 2014 by LondonTom

[eFestivals]

Or alternatively you could say man utd need to beat Liverpool at home and match their results against the other 18 clubs in the second half of the season. Considering man u got marginally more points against those sides in the first half of the season, it shouldnt need a huge form change to do the same again.

That might take them past Liverpool (it won't actually, Utd would need another point cos of goal diff), but it won't see them make top 4.

My point here hasn't been about saying Liverpool will make top 4, but that Utd won't. It's gone, kaput!

Luck could fall Utd's way to have them overhaul one of the three teams above them; it might even fall enough their way to overhaul two of them.

But all three? Not a chance in hell.

[TheGayTent]

Last time I check the ticket office online there was plenty of seats available for £37

[pink_triangle]

That might take them past Liverpool (it won't actually, Utd would need another point cos of goal diff), but it won't see them make top 4.

My point here hasn't been about saying Liverpool will make top 4, but that Utd won't. It's gone, kaput!

Luck could fall Utd's way to have them overhaul one of the three teams above them; it might even fall enough their way to overhaul two of them.

But all three? Not a chance in hell.

[strummer77]

United might finish above us. But the fact it is up for debate after recent seasons should be the worrying thing for United fans, because it is more to do with them than us.

[eFestivals]

Or alternatively you could say man utd need to beat Liverpool at home and match their results against the other 18 clubs ...

I forgot to say....

Of the 17 points that Liverpool are likely to drop from now till the end of the season (likely cos that's their season-so-far form), most people are already thinking that three of those points will be dropped at OT.

So it's not quite as easy for Utd as it might appear via the way you've chosen to consider things. Predicting individual results as you're doing via a concentration on one particular match has a higher chance of big error in the overall conclusion than there is if you only consider averages as I've done.

[eFestivals]

Weren't man u 2 points behind Liverpool at half way? So if they best them and matched their points total over the games they would be ahead and not level. I think all 4 clubs have significant flaws and don't believe any need much of a change to take 4th place.

If you wanna look at things that way, Utd are already 4 points down on where you need them to perform as an average.

Looking at things in that way actually makes Utd's position appear even more dire, not better.

[eFestivals]

United might finish above us. But the fact it is up for debate after recent seasons should be the worrying thing for United fans, because it is more to do with them than us.

Anything is possible, and judging by previous seasons, perhaps even likely.

So I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Utd go past Spurs, or Everton, or Liverpool.

They might even go past Spurs and Everton, or Spurs and Liverpool, or Everton and Liverpool.

Will they go past all of Spurs, Everton, and Liverpool? It is hugely, hugely, HUGELY unlikely.

[pink_triangle]

I forgot to say....

Of the 17 points that Liverpool are likely to drop from now till the end of the season (likely cos that's their season-so-far form), most people are already thinking that three of those points will be dropped at OT.

So it's not quite as easy for Utd as it might appear via the way you've chosen to consider things. Predicting individual results as you're doing via a concentration on one particular match has a higher chance of big error in the overall conclusion than there is if you only consider averages as I've done.

[eFestivals]

OK, you Utd hopers, how's about trying this way on for size....

Last season Utd got 89 points, which averages at 2.3421 points per game.

There's 16 games left. If Utd re-produced last season's title-winning form for the rest of the season they'd end up with 74.5 points.

Last season, 3rd place had 75 points, and 4th place had 73 points.

Now, does anyone really think that Utd will be able to manage last season's title-winning form as an average for the rest of the season?

If you do, I have some cuckoos for sale. I hear you're buying.

Edited January 21, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I don't think there is any assumption that man utd will beat Liverpool,just a realisation that they will probably have to, if they want top 4.

Oh, I'm sure Utd think they have to win that one.

The difference for finishing 4th is that L'pool can let them have that one and it doesn't matter for their aim of finishing 4th.

Simple fact is: if Utd do win that one they won't win enough of the others.

Edited January 21, 2014 by eFestivals

[pink_triangle]

If you wanna look at things that way, Utd are already 4 points down on where you need them to perform as an average.

Looking at things in that way actually makes Utd's position appear even more dire, not better.

[kaosmark2]

OK, you Utd hopers, how's about trying this way on for size....

Last season Utd got 89 points, which averages at 2.3421 points per game.

There's 16 games left. If Utd re-produced last season's title-winning form for the rest of the season they'd end up with 74.5 points.

Last season, 3rd place had 75 points, and 4th place had 73 points.

Now, does anyone really think that Utd will be able to manage last season's title-winning form as an average for the rest of the season?

If you do, I have some cuckoos for sale. I hear you're buying.

[pink_triangle]

United might finish above us. But the fact it is up for debate after recent seasons should be the worrying thing for United fans, because it is more to do with them than us.

[eFestivals]

That could be down to having a more difficult start to the second half of the season which will even out over the 19 games. My view is that all were pretty close after half the season had gone, so no reason they won't be close over another half. Nothing more complex than that, its all to play for and all have strengths but significant flaws.

how close the gaps are will have doubled by the end of the season compared to half-way, not got smaller.

Yes, Utd can change the position they sit in within those teams (tho they're still the one in the worst form, something that some seem to be forgetting!), but there's not a hope in hell of them rising to the top.

Edited January 21, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

I don't want Man U to get it, I just think you're overcomplicating and misusing statistics.

Nah, i'm just trying to demonstrate just how much of a turnaround in form Utd would need if they were going to make top 4.

The stats say it's just about possible still, if they manage to hit top form immediately and keep it up till the end of the season.

But their form has been (for them) dreadful all season. It's still dreadful, with no signs of getting better, and no reason to think that it might.

Why are people still thinking that there's a rabbit in the hat?

[pink_triangle]

I suppose it depends over what period you are measuring the form. 5 wins from 7 is pretty decent form, I'm not sure the others (except maybe spurs) have picked up more.

[eFestivals]

I suppose it depends over what period you are measuring the form. 5 wins from 7 is pretty decent form, I'm not sure the others (except maybe spurs) have picked up more.

Wins is not form, tho it can be an indication of form. In this case it's not.

They might have been winning, but their play has been almost exclusively (for them) poor. They won't pick up the wins they'd need thru to the end of the season for top 4 if they keep playing in the same manner.

You look at the table, and see what they'd be needing to do. You then look at the team and consider whether they're capable of doing it.

And they're not. They're just not.

I can only think that you've seen almost none of their games, or that if you've seen highlights the editing has been done to flatter Utd.

There's a few good players but as a team they're an empty vessel.

[kaosmark2]

They might have been winning, but their play has been almost exclusively (for them) poor.

[eFestivals]

That was the case last season...

Yep, and for many seasons under fergie.

But their play wasn't as bad as this, and neither was there such an obvious lack of belief. They've looked like they've given up and already gone home on quite a few occasions by around the 70 minutes mark (when before, fergie would be urging them on, and on and on).

People have been saying that they only need to win a few games to close the gap since around the beginning of Oct, and yet the gap has stayed pretty much the same - there's been occasions where it's closed up a fair way, only to spread out again. The gap is not really shrinking, and that's because Utd are not really improving.

As I've demonstrated, they'd need to turn on title winning form right now just to make top 4. They might improve some, but they're simply not going to hit those heights.

Edited January 21, 2014 by eFestivals