The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

"it is simple mathematics that we cannot bring about a majority Tory government no matter who we vote for."

But there's not going to be a majority tory govt, is there?

There's also not going to be a formal coalition between Labour and the SNP, that's guaranteed.

Which means it'll be a minority govt, and a minority govt formed by the largest party.

How Scotland votes looks likely to be the deciding factor for who will be the largest party.

So it looks like you lot will vote SNP, but get a govt you don't want - tho the party you vote for will get the govt that it wants.

You can reject that realistic view if you like tho you won't be able to reject the tory govt the real world might bring you.

[eFestivals]

So, whilst it is certainly true that more folk vote Tory in the north of England than in Scotland, they are still never likely to "win" the north!

by land area, they win the north just as they win the south. Most of the country is blue.

As I said, the difference is with the cities - where the south of England has few cities in comparison to the midlands and northwards.

[LJS]

But there's not going to be a majority tory govt, is there?

There's also not going to be a formal coalition between Labour and the SNP, that's guaranteed.

Which means it'll be a minority govt, and a minority govt formed by the largest party.

How Scotland votes looks likely to be the deciding factor for who will be the largest party.

So it looks like you lot will vote SNP, but get a govt you don't want - tho the party you vote for will get the govt that it wants.

You can reject that realistic view if you like tho you won't be able to reject the tory govt the real world might bring you.

As usual, Neil...a barrowload of assumptions from which you arrive at a "definite' fact.

A technique you regularly use.

[LJS]

by land area, they win the north just as they win the south. Most of the country is blue.

As I said, the difference is with the cities - where the south of England has few cities in comparison to the midlands and northwards.

Land area is completely irrelevant. I would imagine the lib dems win Scotland by land area!

[eFestivals]

Land area is completely irrelevant. I would imagine the lib dems win Scotland by land area!

It's relevant to demonstrating how the tories are clustered in this country - in the countryside, all over the country!

It's merely the lesser number of cities (or 'industrial cities') in the south that causes there to be more tories in the south. The distribution is very strictly related to how the land is populated - and so land area is very relevant in accurately describing where the tories are.

[LJS]

It's relevant to demonstrating how the tories are clustered in this country - in the countryside, all over the country!

It's merely the lesser number of cities (or 'industrial cities') in the south that causes there to be more tories in the south. The distribution is very strictly related to how the land is populated - and so land area is very relevant in accurately describing where the tories are.

Of course it is ... But you brought it up in response to my point about the shortage of people voting Tory in the north of England...in that context it was entirely irrelevant.

[eFestivals]

As usual, Neil...a barrowload of assumptions from which you arrive at a "definite' fact.

A technique you regularly use.

The only solid assumptions in there is that the tories won't win a majority, and that Labour and the SNP won't have a formal coalition. Care to tell me why you think those solid assumptions are going to be wrong?

So your point about "simple mathematics" and how Scotland "cannot bring about a majority Tory government" is meaningless and vacuous.

Scotland *CAN* bring about a tory govt even if it doesn't vote for them. That's 100% certain!

Stop pretending that Scotland having a tory govt doesn't matter to Scotland. You'll scwream and scwream and scwream until you're sick.

If you want to, you can stop that. It's pretty clear - just as with the SNP themselves - that you don't want to. You'd rather punch yourself in the face than vote to achieve the best result for Scotland; it's fooling no one.

Edited December 7, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Of course it is ... But you brought it up in response to my point about the shortage of people voting Tory in the north of England...in that context it was entirely irrelevant.

It's not because the north is more sensible - they're also the places that have voted BNP the most.

[LJS]

It's not because the north is more sensible - they're also the places that have voted BNP the most.

quite so, there are many reasons why people don't vote Tory, being smart is only one - many other reasons exist.

Here's another take on the potential post election scenario - no more or less fact based than yours

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/how-alex-salmond-could-become-deputy.html?m=1

[eFestivals]

Here's another take on the potential post election scenario

"How Alex Salmond could become Deputy Prime Minister of the UK - at Labour's request"

If the Labour party wish to kill themselves in the rest of the UK to add to their death in Scotland, that's all they need to do.

There's plenty in the Labour party who aren't very smart, but I doubt they have even one member who is that dumb.

Or do you think that the UK population think their future should be decided for them by those who want no part of them? If you do, you've lost a few cogs.

[LJS]

"How Alex Salmond could become Deputy Prime Minister of the UK - at Labour's request"

If the Labour party wish to kill themselves in the rest of the UK to add to their death in Scotland, that's all they need to do.

There's plenty in the Labour party who aren't very smart, but I doubt they have even one member who is that dumb.

Or do you think that the UK population think their future should be decided for them by those who want no part of them? If you do, you've lost a few cogs.

... Which of course was what a lot of people thought about the Tories before they entered coalition with the lib dems.

Just for clarity, I think a Labour/SNP coalition is pretty unlikely - but I don't think it's totally impossible.

As to whether it is desirable? ... well, it is better than a Tory/anyone else coalition but that's about the best that can be said for it.

It would certainly hold considerable risks for both parties!

[eFestivals]

... Which of course was what a lot of people thought about the Tories before they entered coalition with the lib dems.

It's nothing like the same thing. The LibDems are a UK party, and want to be the UK govt (if they were to get enough votes).

If you think the SNP's want of not being a UK govt is something that can dismissed as a nothing by the rest of the UK population, you're in a for a massive surprise come May.

What would the SNP want in exchange for supporting Labour? They'd want the UK to be more dismembered than it is already. That's a non-starter for any UK govt.

Yes, Labour could go with that for short term gain, but it would be long-term death.

Has a coalition with th3e Libdems brought about the long term death of the tories? Not a jot of it.

It would certainly hold considerable risks for both parties!

Nope, it's a solid win for the SNP, and no-win-on-any-basis for Labour.

If you stopped having a Scottish perspective for a moment and thought about how the majority of the UK population would see it, you might wise up to why it won't ever happen.

[LJS]

It's nothing like the same thing. The LibDems are a UK party, and want to be the UK govt (if they were to get enough votes).

If you think the SNP's want of not being a UK govt is something that can dismissed as a nothing by the rest of the UK population, you're in a for a massive surprise come May.

What would the SNP want in exchange for supporting Labour? They'd want the UK to be more dismembered than it is already. That's a non-starter for any UK govt.

Yes, Labour could go with that for short term gain, but it would be long-term death.

Has a coalition with th3e Libdems brought about the long term death of the tories? Not a jot of it.

Nope, it's a solid win for the SNP, and no-win-on-any-basis for Labour.

If you stopped having a Scottish perspective for a moment and thought about how the majority of the UK population would see it, you might wise up to why it won't ever happen.

So you think it won't happen - I think it's pretty improbable. not that much difference between us there then

[Comfy Bean]

But voting Labour is the best chance of keeping the Tories out of government, no? The SNP helped Thatcher into power, you can't hide that. As much as you'd like to, even Salmond and Sturgeon's collective ego can't hide the fact.

You vote SNP, you get the Tories. Again. So, are you happy with the Tories getting back in with the whole Sturgeon playing the rock star thing?

When I read your post before this one I knew you had opened this can of worms ( again )

As Neil quite rightly says it`s a general election and all votes are equal. After this though I totally disagree with his logic. You are talking about the way Scotland votes in both your posts so in that context I see it as being quite simple. Generally speaking, people in Scotland will vote for Labour or maybe the SNP. These parties best represent the views of these people and so they obviously put their trust in them by voting for them. In England, generally speaking, the good folks of England vote for the Tories. The Tories best represent their views so they vote for them. Due to the simple arithmetic of a general election, what the people of England want, the whole UK gets. Generally speaking this applies most of the time. England votes Tory, we all get Tory. If we want to " blame " anyone for us having a Tory government then it`s quite clear where to look. Scotland will return the odd Tory MP. To say Scottish voters are to " blame " for a Tory Govt is a little silly in my opinion.

The SNP currently have 6 ( six) MP`s. I think the best they have ever had is 11. So.......in my view, doubling their number to 12 is a historic result. Anything from 12-20 would be a great achievement and would give the SNP some influence. I see the Tories are talking about giving control of Corp Tax to the Irish. Looks like Neil might be right about no-one gaining an overall majority. Should I assume that unlike the SNP, the Ulster Unionists will be willing to shore up the Tories ?

Oh and what`s the crack with this " Sturgeon playing the rock star thing " ? Genuinly don`t get what you mean mate. Do you disagree with her views / vision on how we can make Scotland a fairer society ?

[Comfy Bean]

So you think it won't happen - I think it's pretty improbable. not that much difference between us there then

Hope life is treating you well sir. I think we were being told earlier in this thread that Labour would win the general election. Now we are being told.... " But there's not going to be a majority tory govt, is there? ". I hope I`m wrong, but you and I have seen first hand how much of an arse of things Labour can make of a campaign these days and would it really be a "shock" if Dave took the Ed`s to the cleaners when the dog fighting starts. Think I`ve said on here already that Jim Murphy is not the answer. Thought the attached article was interesting.

Tony Benn had Murphy`s number a while ago. I see no reason to doubt him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11230007/Len-McCluskey-Labour-will-lose-general-election-if-Jim-Murphy-is-elected-Scottish-leader.html

Edited December 7, 2014 by comfortablynumb1910

[Comfy Bean]

There's only one way of voting that'll guarantee a no-tory govt Scotland.

" The Dirty Independence Question ? "

I think we have our answer folks.

Close thread

[LJS]

Clearly I'm not alone in thinking the unthinkable...

" following confirmation that Mr Salmond would stand in the Gordon constituency, bookmakers William Hill offered odds of 6/1 that the MSP would go on to become a minister in the next UK Government, and 13/2 that the SNP would form part of a coalition.

Professor John Curtice, a polling expert, said that the strategy laid out by Mr Salmond was "completely realistic" with the most recent surveys suggesting the party could win upwards of 40 seats."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scottish-politics/salmond-nat-mps-will-rumble-up-westminster.114135450

Edited December 8, 2014 by LJS

[eFestivals]

So you think it won't happen - I think it's pretty improbable. not that much difference between us there then

I'd say that you believing it might happen is a massive difference, given the reasons why I think it's impossible.

The SNP are not just another political party. From the point of view of the UK state - and consequently, a large number of those who live within the state - their political purpose is almost treasonous.

Plus, on top of that, they would be a party with less than 4% of the vote and from just a small part of the country, which is very very different to the situation around the LibDems in 2010 with 22% from all around the UK. The size and spread of the LibDem's vote made it easy for the population to accept their influence on govt policy. As the SNP are likely to have less of a proportion of the vote than the Greens who will only have a seat or two, the contrast in those 'coalition partners' situations couldn't be greater.

The price of coalition by the SNP would be privileges for Scotland at rUK's expense. The SNP in coalition would be the tail wagging the dog.

If you think all of that could be shrugged off in the rest of the UK, you've grasped little about this country.

Edited December 8, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Due to the simple arithmetic of a general election, what the people of England want, the whole UK gets.

the current govt proves that as self-serving propaganda by the SNP.

To say Scottish voters are to " blame " for a Tory Govt is a little silly in my opinion.

it's no less silly than making your vote without any reference to how others will vote and how your own vote can be used to bring about the best result from your own point of view. It doesn't get more silly than sticking your head in the sand.

Anything from 12-20 would be a great achievement and would give the SNP some influence.

what, like the 62 seats the LibDems had in 2005 gave them some influence?

I see the Tories are talking about giving control of Corp Tax to the Irish.

for the same very practical reasons as they're refusing to give it to Scotland.

Perhaps take that on board? Or doesn't the practical and real ever come into nat's thinking?

[eFestivals]

Hope life is treating you well sir. I think we were being told earlier in this thread that Labour would win the general election. Now we are being told.... " But there's not going to be a majority tory govt, is there? ".

The tories couldn't win a majority when they had an open goal in 2010.

They're certainly not going to be more successful this time around.

[eFestivals]

Clearly I'm not alone in thinking the unthinkable...

" following confirmation that Mr Salmond would stand in the Gordon constituency, bookmakers William Hill offered odds of 6/1 that the MSP would go on to become a minister in the next UK Government, and 13/2 that the SNP would form part of a coalition.

Haven't you realised yet that the bookies just love a mug punter?

It's clearly the case that Scots like you think from their Scottish position that it's possible. But, meanwhile, those with a UK perspective know that it's impossible, because the numbers are on their side, and they properly recognise the political poison that a Lab/SNP coalition would be for Labour.

The SNP have unleashed nationalism, not only within Scotland but within the rest of the UK. Why can't Scots grasp what they've started?

[russycarps]

at least the SNP can debate in a mature and adult manner. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30302865 When will this party accept they lost? They lost to the most inept campaign ever conducted. I'm amazed they have the front to stay in the public eye.

[eFestivals]

When will this party accept they lost?

it's going to take another 15 years, and a second Quebec.

Or perhaps in 15 years time it'll be clear to Scotland that their economy isn't all that's claimed for it by the SNP? That'll definitely be how it is if the oil price stays low.

[LJS]

at least the SNP can debate in a mature and adult manner.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30302865When will this party accept they lost? They lost to the most inept campaign ever conducted. I'm amazed they have the front to stay in the public eye.

Have you seen recent Scottish opinion polls? The losers are winning & the winners are losing.

I'm not quite sure why people expect a party whose main aim is independence to stop campaigning for it. That would be distinctly odd.

Oh, & the Snp have suspended the silly burners.

[russycarps]

Have you seen recent Scottish opinion polls? The losers are winning & the winners are losing.

I'm not quite sure why people expect a party whose main aim is independence to stop campaigning for it. That would be distinctly odd.

Oh, & the Snp have suspended the silly burners.

the losers we winning right up until people actually had to vote. They then realised the absurdity of St Alex's vision of independence and followed their heads and voted No.

Edited December 8, 2014 by russycarps