Football 2011-2012

[The Nal]

Easy there Patrice.....

[Langdale Wolf]

While every year the general prediction is that the the three promoted teams will go down - often on the basis they've not bought anyone decent enough to stay up with - it's the case that often at least one of the promoted teams stays up. For example, the year that Wolves came up and stayed up just about everyone would have said what you've just said about this year's teams.

So I felt that I had to pick at least one existing team to go down, and of those Wolves must be one of the most likely. A strong reason that I plumped for them tho is that the signings they've made this summer (or at least, the ones I'm aware of) seem to me to be an awful lot of money (for Wolves, anyway) on players that aren't jumping out at me as worth it.

Having said all of that, I'm not hugely confident that the predictions I've made for who will go down will hold true - it's probably the hardest thing of all to predict of anything, with few seeming to get it right any year.

that's because - if the statement is true - there won't be any Taarabt money.

(I realise you probably wrote that before that statement was made).

Much the same could have been said about Wolves they year they finally managed to stay up!

[The Nal]

It'll be a long, hard season but I don't see us being in the thick of the relegation battle this time.

Edited July 25, 2011 by The Nal

[ralph250]

It'll be a long, hard season but I don't see us being in the thick of the relegation battle this time.

[the_hedge]

Injuries will be the key to a team like Wolves staying up. If they keep their main players fit they will be fine. Bolton will be ok with Coyle in charge, I've been really impressed by him since he arrived in the Prem.

[TheGayTent]

Injuries will be the key to a team like Wolves staying up. If they keep their main players fit they will be fine. Bolton will be ok with Coyle in charge, I've been really impressed by him since he arrived in the Prem.

[ralph250]

Think it's too early for me to do predictions yet, whilst everyone still to move in the transfer window.

Quite surprised 8/10 of you have United as favourites though. I probably wouldn't go against that grain, but huge amounts of unknowns heading into this season so surprised we're being backed to that degree.

Lost huge amounts of experience in VDS, Scholes, Neville, O'Shea, Brown and Hargreaves this summer, and whilst I'm delighted with the acquisitions of De Gea, Young and Jones so far, I'm not sure I could say we're stronger than last year. Neville, Brown and Hargreaves didn't play much, but whilst Scholes was winding down, I think his absence will be felt a fair bit.

Young is an improvement to the squad. Far stronger option to come in for Nani/Valencia than Obertan and Bebe, but questionable whether he's really an improvement on our first XI. Perhaps more comfortable on the left than the others. Good quality to come in when required to start and could be a great option off the bench when not.

Jones is a prospect but not really an improvement on the fist XI yet either. Not going to usurp Rio and Vidic this season. Probably better potential than O'Shea and Brown whose minutes he'll take to a degree this season, but doesn't have anywhere near their experience.

and De Gea whilst the keeper I wanted, is unlikely to outperform VDS who for me was the best performing keeper in Europe last year. Could count the number of mistakes VDS made on one hand last year. De Gea's only 20 which is nothing for a keeper, and doesn't speak English so going to be some initial communication problems. And whilst he's got decent big game experience behind him already - won the Europa cup and Super cup with Atletico & the u21 championships with Spain - he wouldn't have faced the exposure he'll get at United. He's comes across as quite a cool composed character, but at his age, mistakes are going to be expected and just hope he's got a strong enough head on him to shut them out. A few early bad games and the media will get on his back like they did with Bebe. Equally the premiership holds a different footballing culture to Spain. He's going to be tested far more with aerial balls than he would've been used to in Spain. He's got two great defenders in front of him to help with that (Rio and Vidic when playing together didn't concede any goals from headers last year), but then their aerial dominance was helped by their understanding with VDS. Might take time to build that with De Gea.

I think he has the potential by in the top 3 keepers in the world, but whether it'll take a couple of seasons for us to really get the benefit remains to be seen. How he settles in Manchester? How he adapts to the English game etc? It's a risky signing, but the potential pay-off makes it worth it imo.

But outside of that, Welbeck and Cleverley look to be staying at the club this year as opposed to going out on loan again, and Jones was satisfied by Fergie that he'd get enough gametime to sign for us over his other options, so looks likely Fergie is looking to give minutes this season to Jones 19, De Gea 20, Welbeck 20, Rafael and Fabio both just turned 21 this month, Cleverley 21, Smalling 21, Macheda (if he doesn't go on loan) 19. Possibility that Fergie may look to give a few minutes to Pogba and Morrison this year, both only 18.

Hernandez, Evans and Anderson are only 23, with the former with just one season in the prem behind him and the latter had pretty much two years of his development written off after a leg break and cruciate already in his career. Nani 24.

Still got a lot of experience and strong core players with Vidic, Rio, Evra, Carrick, Giggs, Park, Rooney, Berbatov, Owen etc. Valencia's 25, Young 26, but fair possibility we could be playing a fair few games with half a team made up of u21s this year. Rio's gametime will be managed to protect his back, and so an injury to Evra, and we're looking at a backline of Vidic plus four u21s.

Smalling and Hernandez have had superb starts to their Utd careers, but we're yet to see how they react when they suffer a loss in form, or if Hernandez gets 2nd season syndrome. We're yet to see how Giggs responds to the crowd reaction I'm expecting he'll receive (doubt it'll affect him too unduly but never know). We're currently pretty short in midfield (with Fletchers illness, an injury to Carrick would really concern me), whilst overloaded in forwards. Macheda will probably go out on loan I'd guess and Diouf will probably be sold or loaned. Rooney and Hernandez probable first choice, but Welbeck will need games for his development, Owen is meant to have been promised more gametime, and Berba (presuming he stays) will play his fair share. Probably going to mean more juggling for Fergie which might mean less time together for Rooney and Hernandez when they're probably our strongest forward line.

Remains to be seen whether we do any more business in the window (I think we probably will), but currently I'd say there's a fair few unknowns heading into the season, or areas where an injury or two could put us under a lot of pressure. Not been much more excited heading into a season than this one though.

Edited July 25, 2011 by ralph250

[eFestivals]

Might take time to build that with De Gea.

I guess it's lucky for him that there's a transfer window nowadays. I'm not sure he'd have got that time in the past with Fergie - after all, he's the man with little patience for goalies, and a liking for changing them pretty sharpish but not doing any better via that change.

I think he has the potential by in the top 3 keepers in the world, but whether it'll take a couple of seasons for us to really get the benefit remains to be seen. How he settles in Manchester? How he adapts to the English game etc? It's a risky signing, but the potential pay-off makes it worth it imo.

he's definitely your potential weak link going into the next season - but as you say, it depends how he adapts. He will be the difference between something or nothing for you next season.

so looks likely Fergie is looking to give minutes this season to Jones 19

he's not going to have too much choice is he?

You've lost some of the back-ups, and I reckon Rio is going to be lucky to play 15 games at most.

[ralph250]

Don't doubt Coyle's ability if given the right tools, do doubt Gartside's resolve to give him the necessary tools though...

[ralph250]

I guess it's lucky for him that there's a transfer window nowadays. I'm not sure he'd have got that time in the past with Fergie - after all, he's the man with little patience for goalies, and a liking for changing them pretty sharpish but not doing any better via that change.

he's definitely your potential weak link going into the next season - but as you say, it depends how he adapts. He will be the difference between something or nothing for you next season.

he's not going to have too much choice is he?

You've lost some of the back-ups, and I reckon Rio is going to be lucky to play 15 games at most.

[eFestivals]

Fergie will give De Gea time. Obviously he'll be hoping that he can come in and make an immediate impact but he would've been fully aware there's a slight long-term strategy when bringing him in and that at his age he's not going to be complete; he's shown too much faith to pay £17-18m on a 20 yr old keeper to discard him after the first mistake. Might take him out of the firing line for a bit if does makes a few mistakes, but the objective will be for De Gea to be our keeper for the next 5-10 years and we don't really have an experienced option to come in either. Lindegaard's looked fine from what I've seen but only has experience in the Danish and Norwegian leagues, bit older mind.

Oh, I don't doubt that it's a great signing on paper, and one that should turn out very good over the years. But if there's going to be problems then those problems are likely to come almost straight away.

I've thought over the "Might take him out of the firing line for a bit if does makes a few mistakes" idea (before you'd said that), and that's where it all comes unstuck if it's going to come unstuck.

As you say, you don't have an easy back-up for him - which will quite possibly work to De Gea's advantage, because it makes it less likely that Fergie will drop him. But if Fergie did drop him then I'm not sure that he'll ever really come back (at Utd, and possibly elsewhere too). That's the sort of thing which often destroys a very promising goalie's confidence - or the confidence of the players in front of him when they're in front of him - (just look at Arsenal, pick any season! ) and while Utd normally have a slow start the change in players makes me think Fergie's less likely to accept that this year and will want them to be showing what they've got from the off. I'm not sure that Fergie's going to have the patience for on-going first night nerves.

Unless Rio's back problems come back, he'll play more than 15 times imo. He seemed to get over it last year, and made 29 starts in all comps, which is fair amount better than the 21 he made the year before when it was really giving him gip. He'll still walk into the team whenever he's fit and available though I'd have thought. Jones will get games, but still got Smalling and Evans too.

You've got more confidence than I have that he's over his back problems. That's often the sort of thing which never really goes away (particularly in an older sportsman - it's often the result of their sport anyway), and I can see him being used less and less as time goes by to keep him fit for the games where Fergie really wants to use him. A sort of Ledley Mk II if you like.

[ralph250]

Oh, I don't doubt that it's a great signing on paper, and one that should turn out very good over the years. But if there's going to be problems then those problems are likely to come almost straight away.

I've thought over the "Might take him out of the firing line for a bit if does makes a few mistakes" idea (before you'd said that), and that's where it all comes unstuck if it's going to come unstuck.

As you say, you don't have an easy back-up for him - which will quite possibly work to De Gea's advantage, because it makes it less likely that Fergie will drop him. But if Fergie did drop him then I'm not sure that he'll ever really come back (at Utd, and possibly elsewhere too). That's the sort of thing which often destroys a very promising goalie's confidence - or the confidence of the players in front of him when they're in front of him - (just look at Arsenal, pick any season! ) and while Utd normally have a slow start the change in players makes me think Fergie's less likely to accept that this year and will want them to be showing what they've got from the off. I'm not sure that Fergie's going to have the patience for on-going first night nerves.

Edited July 25, 2011 by ralph250

[Langdale Wolf]

Think you'll stay up fine. Not sure I'd go as far to say you'll be clear and dry with games to go, but think you have enough to get safe. Couple years experience in the prem now & Johnson's a great signing for you imo. He missed Dann at Birmingham last year, but them two were pretty miserly 2009/10, and last year it was having the worst attack that cost them, not the defence. Fullbacks positions could be improved imo, but Fletcher ended the year strongly, and hopefully Doyle can score more frequently for you next year. Jarvis faded slightly as the season progressed but played excellently at times, and might actually have Kightly available this season too, which will give options (Hunt on the left etc). Long-time out though, and pretty untested at this level, but nice to think he could get back up to speed.

[TheGayTent]

It's the same with any side outside the top 7/8 - the squads just aren't big enough to cope with injuries to several key players.

[Langdale Wolf]

Which is exactly why the increase in the number of substitutes in the last 20 years is a big pile of steaming dog turd and totally favours the big (rich) teams.

[eFestivals]

Which is exactly why the increase in the number of substitutes in the last 20 years is a big pile of steaming dog turd and totally favours the big (rich) teams.

I've been pleased to see that the Champs (is it just the Champs, or does it go to One & Two too? I forget) has changed its subs rules for the coming season, because many teams were failing to have (I think it was) 7 players on the bench. It's been reduced by two for next season.

[TheGayTent]

I've been pleased to see that the Champs (is it just the Champs, or does it go to One & Two too? I forget) has changed its subs rules for the coming season, because many teams were failing to have (I think it was) 7 players on the bench. It's been reduced by two for next season.

[The Nal]

So Aquilani on the way to Fiorentina. His agent says a deal is nearly done. Only personal terms are yet to be reached. Not surprised. Was always a very weird signing I thought.

Rumours of Lucas leaving too. Reported by The Scum though so probably best to ignore it.

Great signing for Villa getting N'Zogbia. He could really step up a level there. Although Villa need to step up a level too.

On De Gea, I think he will make mistakes (young keepers always do) but will be given time. Fergie knows that he has to make mistakes somewhere and hes too young to have already got through that period already. Its to be expected.

Edited July 26, 2011 by The Nal

[Wooderson]

Rumours of Lucas leaving too. Reported by The Scum though so probably best to ignore it.

[The Nal]

Thanks for this chief. Having a shocking day and needed a right old belly laugh. Comical stuff.

[eFestivals]

Rumours of Lucas leaving too. Reported by The Scum though so probably best to ignore it.

I've read that somewhere this morning too. I'd wondered if he might be going, given the abundance of midfielders that Liverpool have now and the difficulty I'm having at seeing where they'd all play.

But all the same I'm quite surprised. He's still relatively young, is clearly improving, and having used him thru some of his dodgier times I felt they'd stick with him to get the benefit of the improvement he's had. And thru those dodgier years he was a bit of a hate figure for the fans (I know their opinions have now mostly changed) yet never complained and just got on with it. Loyalty like that can't be bought.

[strummer77]

I've read that somewhere this morning too. I'd wondered if he might be going, given the abundance of midfielders that Liverpool have now and the difficulty I'm having at seeing where they'd all play.

But all the same I'm quite surprised. He's still relatively young, is clearly improving, and having used him thru some of his dodgier times I felt they'd stick with him to get the benefit of the improvement he's had. And thru those dodgier years he was a bit of a hate figure for the fans (I know their opinions have now mostly changed) yet never complained and just got on with it. Loyalty like that can't be bought.

Edited July 26, 2011 by strummer77

[The Nal]

Probably just more rubbish from that filthy good for nothing rag.

[eFestivals]

Luckily it's 100% bollocks. Lots of midfielders but none who do the same role.

yep, that's been my thoughts too - there's not really another defensive midfielder option (aside from Poulson, who I guess is going), so from that side of things I felt Lucas was just about the most likely of anyone to stay.

But it's still the case that Liverpool have far too many midfielders, and finances might dictate that Lucas has to go - particularly if others can't be found a new home.

[strummer77]

yep, that's been my thoughts too - there's not really another defensive midfielder option (aside from Poulson, who I guess is going), so from that side of things I felt Lucas was just about the most likely of anyone to stay.

But it's still the case that Liverpool have far too many midfielders, and finances might dictate that Lucas has to go - particularly if others can't be found a new home.