Football 2011-2012

[The Nal]

Spurs getting a really easy ride about yesterday as they have for the last couple of months. Probably not surprising with arry as manager and scotty (rinse around a lot) parker in the team. The fact is they didn't lose because of dodgy refereeing, they lost because they were pretty rubbish, as they have been regularly recently. Chelsea were the better team comfortably.

[eFestivals]

Not sure what its meant to prove. The top teams are going to get more penalties because they spend more time attacking. What would be a more interesting stat is penalties/goals scored percentage

I wasn't trying to prove anything and i'm certainly aware that a top team is more likely to win a penalty cos they spend more time in the box. I'd merely had a feeling that most of their victories since xmas had (sometimes only in part) been because of penalties, but the numbers that Jaybles posted proves it's fewer than I'd thought.

I've seen far less footie over the past 3-ish months than I'd seen earlier in the season, but the parts I've seen has me feeling that despite them winning that Utd aren't playing as well at the striking end of the pitch - but that penalties were making up for the shortfall. So following on from that, I was idly wondering whether the wins would have been wins without the penalties, and how that might have affected the title race with Utd's points against City's.

But with the number of penalties being less than I'd thought it's a less interesting consideration, and not something I can be bothered to dig into further by finding out exactly how it might have affected things.

[eFestivals]

Sssshhhhh! Don't knock 'Arry. someone may hear you.......

anyone noticed how the papers have stopped crowing "'Arry for England" lately?

The saddest part tho is how there's no English manager that's better (at least, not at the top end of things).

[pink_triangle]

Pda player of the year shortlist Silva, aguero, rooney, parker, hart and rvp. Can't argue with rooney, rvp and aguero. Silva is probably fair enough as they vote early. I think hart and parker though have got a bit of a high profile English player boost. To me krul has been as good if not better than hart with a far cheaper defence protecting him.

[strummer77]

Pda player of the year shortlist Silva, aguero, rooney, parker, hart and rvp. Can't argue with rooney, rvp and aguero. Silva is probably fair enough as they vote early. I think hart and parker though have got a bit of a high profile English player boost. To me krul has been as good if not better than hart with a far cheaper defence protecting him.

Edited April 16, 2012 by strummer77

[The Nal]

anyone noticed how the papers have stopped crowing "'Arry for England" lately?

[pink_triangle]

The criteria for young player of the year also needs looking at. In 2012 someone like Aguero is not considered a young player, he is 23, with 250 + senior club experiences and 33 international caps. Footballers are peaking much earlier so the goalposts should be moved to reflect it. Bale and Aguero probably wont win the award but if the pfa dont meet the criteria they are a mile ahead of their opposition.

[Ed209]

Of course the teams that attack get the most penalties. However if you look in general, a team like wigan or fulham need a far smaller margin of doubt to get a penalty than a man utd.

[pink_triangle]

Wigans form against the big teams have been amazing, the big boy may not be as strong as previous but I never predicted this run of form. Blackburn now looking in big trouble after looking like they were moving away from the relegation zone a few weeks ago. Arsenal also will now be looking over their shoulders. Would love to see Martinez managing a bigger side, spurs maybe?

[thetime]

Wigan were different class again.

And van persie is an arse when it doesnt go his way.

[jammy2211]

I know it's pointless moaning about the PFA lists, but my main gripe: Parker? Instead of Dempsey?

[jammy2211]

Wigans form against the big teams have been amazing, the big boy may not be as strong as previous but I never predicted this run of form. Blackburn now looking in big trouble after looking like they were moving away from the relegation zone a few weeks ago. Arsenal also will now be looking over their shoulders. Would love to see Martinez managing a bigger side, spurs maybe?

[The Nal]

Wigan!! Fair fucks. Deserved wins against Utd and Arsenal.

Check this........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMsWpUMc6Sw

Edited April 16, 2012 by The Nal

[Jaybles]

It certainly seems that way to me as a neutral to the premier league teams. Stats might back this up too. Done a couple of very quick calculations

In the last 7 premier league campaigns, this is the penalties awarded to total goals scored for the 3 teams you mention -

Man U 72/549 = 13.1 penalties awarded for every 100 goals scored

Wigan 27/258 = 10.5 penalties awarded for every 100 goals scored

Fulham 26/294 = 8.8 penalties awarded for every 100 goals scored

Think this a fairly good way of giving a fair comparison by normalising out how attacking a team is

Might go through a few of the other teams when I have a spare moment

[eFestivals]

Wigan!! Fair fucks. Deserved wins against Utd and Arsenal.

and Liverpool.

When they were on the bottom I had a feeling they might come good - cos they've got a habit of doing it at the end of the season, and I had a feeling they'd win last night. They were worth the win too.

Another 4 points from their last 4 games will see them stay up I reckon, and they stand a very decent chance of scraping by with just two more points.

So it's Wolves and Blackburn going down, and between Bolton and QPR for the final team to drop.

[eFestivals]

I personally think penalty bias towards the big clubs is utter rubbish. For every generous penalty given, there has been at least another stone wall penalty turned down. Utd should have had an extra two penalties in the last two games, both blatant handballs and both not given.

but a "blatant handball" is not necessarily a stonewall penalty. So should they really have definitely had those penalties, or is your fandom leading your view?

It's not like plenty of other teams don't also get denied penalties for handballs in the box.

Its an interesting statistic, but what I read most out of it is that Man Utd have spent nearly double the amount of time in the opposition penalty area as Wigan and Fulham over the last 7 years. That doesn't even take in to account the number of chances created in the box that were missed. If a team is that successful in attacking the penalty area, then of course they are more likely to be awarded a penalty. Especially against opposition like Wigan and Fulham who are more likely to surrender territory and possession against the top teams

Double the amount of time in the box ceases to be relevant when doing an analysis in the way that Ed's done it, and on the basis that a team like Utd is more likely to make better use of the time they do spend in the box - because they have better strikers, who are more likely to score - then it should actually pan out that a team like Wigan would get more penalties over a period where both teams score the same number of goals than Utd should, if everything else was equal.

But of course everything else isn't equal - for example, Wigan could be considered to have not-as-good defenders, who would be more likely to give away a penalty. So things like that should about equal things up again in regard to penalties awarded per number of goals scored.

[The Nal]

and Liverpool.

[eFestivals]

Nothing special about that.

They've lost a third of the their league game this season.

You're not a blinkered Utd fan looking for any opportunity to put the boot in, oh no.

It was certainly special for Wigan. If I'm remembering rightly, the wins against Liverpool, Utd and Arsenal are all firsts for them, and in every case that at-the-bottom team beat those teams fair and square by being better than them.

So if Liverpool lost to Wigan cos they're shit, what's Utd's excuse?

[The Nal]

You're not a blinkered Utd fan looking for any opportunity to put the boot in, oh no.

Edited April 17, 2012 by The Nal

[eFestivals]

Thats fact. They've lost 11 games. Thats an awful record. If you said any other team with that record I would've have said the same thing. Including Utd.

awful for Liverpool, average for the league.

But Liverpool's season performance is lifted up by having one cup and a decent chance of another, the sort of things that Utd would have been desperate for this season if Shitty hadn't faltered &/or the pensioner hadn't come back. There's no getting away from any of that.

Off day and no Scholes on the pitch.

which just gets to show that things are far far from rosy at OT, cos Utd have been saved by a pensioner.

They'd have been fucked if he'd not come back. Fergie's 'rebuilding' has failed this time.

Utd are top of the league Neil. Liverpool are 36 point behind them in 8th. And deserve to be there. The league table doesn't lie. They're not comparable apart from having a big name. Not this season anyway. Other teams have taken a while to realise that but they have now. Hence why people don't fear Liverpool anymore.

Or do you think theres another reason why Liverpool have only won 12 games all season?

Won 12 games .... plus they've won a lot of others that Utd didn't even get to compete in, because they weren't good enough. If you want to willy wave, others can do it too with no less truth and with just as good a basis (without even getting into the double Euros failure by Utd ).

But none of that changes the reason why Wigan have won those games - because that bottom of the league team have been better than all of those three teams. They didn't fluke any one of those wins, they were better.

You hiding behind an "off day" doesn't hide the fact that bottom-of-the-league Wigan were better than Liverpool, Utd, & Arsenal.

But "off days"? Utd's were in the FOUR cups they entered, while Liverpool's were in the league. It ain't the gulf you wish to see it as.

Edited April 17, 2012 by eFestivals

[kaosmark2]

Neil, OOI, where would you rank Liverpool in terms of quality of English teams? Do you think they're one of the 6 best teams in the league this season?

Note, that's over performances in all competitions.

Edited April 17, 2012 by kaosmark2

[eFestivals]

.... and no Scholes on the pitch.

PS .... are Utd now a one-man team?

It seems to be what you're saying.

[The Nal]

which just gets to show that things are far far from rosy at OT, cos Utd have been saved by a pensioner.

[eFestivals]

Neil, OOI, where would you rank Liverpool in terms of quality of English teams? Do you think they're one of the 6 best teams in the league this season?

Note, that's over performances in all competitions.

right at the moment, nope - but they're only just out of that as things stand.

By the end of the season it might be that they're better than one of the top 6 (so top 5, or even 4) - given the slide by Spurs if it continues, if Chelsea revert to what they were, if Newc were to falter with their remaining games.

Actually, I'd say those apply by results, but not necessarily performances - but it's results that count. It's not like the league is always won on 'performances' rather than 'results', after all.

[eFestivals]

A pensioner who is still the best midfielder in the league and has been the best player in the league in 2012.

Hmmm, not sure about that. But it's lucky for Utd he came back, that much is true.

Liverpool haven't been good in enough full stop.

In a cup comp, you only have to be good enough to win the ties - and they've been that.

The cups aren't an accurate reflection of how good or bad a club are.

very true - just as a league title hasn't been for some of the years Utd have won it.