UK Politics

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

Ok, so don't borrow money then, do it all with tax. Good luck.

 

[steviewevie]

Yay more Mandy news this week.

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

Burnham logo

[Gejonimo]

Thought I'd just drop in as someone who lives in the Makerfield constituency, and has all his life. It's an absolute battleground. Constant knockings on doors, posters everywhere, Reform flags everywhere, lots of hushed conversations in the playground, constant pamphlets through the door. Amazing to see such a wonderful place get the attention it deserves, though I'm well aware once this is all over no one will give a sh*t about Makerfield again. 

 

My gut feeling when this all started was that Burnham would win by a surprising margin. Now I'd say I'm less confident of that, but still think he'll win. I've been particularly surprised by how the media has gone after the Reform candidate. I guess it's easier for them to dig up dirt on an unknown rather than Burnham who has been in the public eye for so long already. I think Labour has a lot of quiet supporters in this area as opposed to the loud and brash Reform voters, and that will show on election day.

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, Gejonimo said:

Thought I'd just drop in as someone who lives in the Makerfield constituency, and has all his life. It's an absolute battleground. Constant knockings on doors, posters everywhere, Reform flags everywhere, lots of hushed conversations in the playground, constant pamphlets through the door. Amazing to see such a wonderful place get the attention it deserves, though I'm well aware once this is all over no one will give a sh*t about Makerfield again. 

 

My gut feeling when this all started was that Burnham would win by a surprising margin. Now I'd say I'm less confident of that, but still think he'll win. I've been particularly surprised by how the media has gone after the Reform candidate. I guess it's easier for them to dig up dirt on an unknown rather than Burnham who has been in the public eye for so long already. I think Labour has a lot of quiet supporters in this area as opposed to the loud and brash Reform voters, and that will show on election day.

you think people are sick of all the attention, or quite like it?

Andy Burnham knocked on your door yet?

[Gejonimo]

29 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

you think people are sick of all the attention, or quite like it?

Andy Burnham knocked on your door yet?

I think most people like it. At the very least it is highlighting that there are constituencies up norf that can hold the power. I'd say the general feeling of this constituency is that we've been ignored, along with the rest of the norf, for far too long, and this is a great chance to highlight that. 

 

Nah but someone did on behalf of him, and he's been out and about all round ours. I've known about him for years, he is genuinely a man of the people and a man of the area. Everyone has a relative or friend who is friends with him, if they don't know him directly.

 

I think what people don't realise outside of Makerfield, is that it is a big constituency. There's 80,000ish registered voters here, and it's a confusing constituency that spreads across a few towns. It's a big place, and Burnham is covering a lot of ground. I've yet to see Kenyon around, or any other parties for that matter. 

 

My final thought, is that the smaller parties are probably going to sway this quite a lot. Restore (who are getting quite a lot of traction here) will take from Reform, Green might take from Labour, Tories will have to jump ship somewhere and that could go either way. And let's not even get started on Count Binface.

[lazyred]

 

[lazyred]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Burnham logo

 

That's a great logo. There's still a big northern soul/Wigan casino following in the East/West Pennines along the M62

 

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, lazyred said:

 

lol

[steviewevie]

how long do we give him?

 

A place where everyone has somewhere of their own, to thrive and feel safe – this will be my politics of home | Keir Starmer | The Guardian

[steviewevie]

Luke Tryl More in Common bloke did an interesting thread about Makerfield on bluesky...

Post by @luketryl.bsky.social — Bluesky

 

copied here:

Some reflections on Makerfield groups so far:
1. People really feel the weight of the vote. People are  *far* more engaged than I've had in a by-election. For some its a burden, some a privilege. They don't see this as just electing 1 MP, but a decision with UK wide ramifications

 

2.  There's a bit of a frustration with the Ashton focus. A few residents have said the media don't seem to realise there are other bits of the constituency.

Those in Ashton though are embarrassed about the regen works and think it's the wrong time to shine a spotlight. Business owners think the media are putting people off buying things.

 

3. In a twist, people really seem to like Josh Simons. Across groups people can point to things he's done, interactions they've had on issues like flooding/development -  no other group in a seat occupied by a member of the 24 intake as the local MP got that level of praise.
Many say they started sceptical, but that he spent time on facebook getting into their concerns or meeting them in libraries etc. Some wonder what the quid pro quo is for standing down, others think it brave and not like most politicians.

 

4. While the groups split on Kenyon vs Burnham, they are united in dislike of PM. This is definitely one of the more hostile areas for Starmer we've visited. For some vote Burnham to get Starmer out is attractive, for others it's hard to conceive voting Labour might be the best way to change PM.

5. There is going to be a lot of nose holding. Versions of "I don't like Labour but I don't want Reform" "If it weren't Burnham i'd never vote Labour"  "I don't like Farage but we've got to get Labour out" "I'd vote Restore but they can't win" Voting 'against' is now a major feature of our politics.

6. Burnham's record as mayor is respected and people appreciate him as a contrast with Starmer. But there are weaknesses 1.  Some think the image he portrays of Manchster is too rosy and "ignores the spice heads" 2. The abortive low emissions zone is biggest black spot on his record.

7. But above all if I were Burnham based on what we've heard I would frame the whole campaign about why places like Makerfield will be better with him as an MP. people aren't naive, they know this isn't just about their seat. But
they want to know why having Burnham in parliament and eventaully as PM will benefit them - lots talk about the north/south divide, burnham is seen as a champion of the north - but what are the 5 'Makerfield tests' he'd apply in the future.

8. Kenyon's past comments split people, particuarly women, some say everyone says stupid things, others question if they're real, but a sizeable group are put off by them - and in particular the failure of Kenyon to make a proper apology.

Many said if he'd apologised properly it would matter less. Substantively the comment about abortion probably seems like it might matter more than the sexist/misogynist comments, and there a degree of 'mind your own business'

9. For Kenyon his strength. story about being outside of the establishment - different to politics as usual and send a message. There is no doubt worries about immigration is an issue in Makerfield even more so than elsewhere - though others still worry the party has no wider plan

10. Restore - who knows if it'll end up with any votes or be squeezed but there's no doubt they've cut through with voters who have noticed their presence.. Some on the right are mainly worried about them splitting the vote and i suspect a reform squeeze message would land.

[steviewevie]

These latest Mandy releases don't seem too damaging to Starmer...just kind of more embarrassing for Mandelson himself, and various ministers in particular Pat McFadden. I guess it reminds the public about Mandelson and Epstein and that in itself is damaging, but kind of can't really see the point now.

[steviewevie]

If one thing comes out of this it's that all ministers will be using disappearing messages on whatsapp from now on.

[steviewevie]

[steviewevie]

Incredibly damaging...and Tories and co are going to milk it to kingdom come.

[steviewevie]

so what they'll have to do is come back and argue for redistributive policies.

 

hahaha

[xxialac]

Don't think it will be damaging. The only people who will read it will be people who already have that entrenched view about Labour now already.
 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Don't think it will be damaging. The only people who will read it will be people who already have that entrenched view about Labour now already.
 

we'll see...seems a pretty simple thing that voters can understand...pay more tax for benefit scroungers etc. Surely Tories/Reform will use this again and again...but yeah so much other sh*t going on maybe it will get lost in the noise.

[lost]

Looks like they've taken the damaging stuff out.. but why leave the top line in?

 

[lost]

27 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Incredibly damaging...and Tories and co are going to milk it to kingdom come.

 

The bit about campaigning in Bury and bascially saying Tories will stay home and not vote as they are pissed and are not scared of a labour government as long as they keep their promises on tax and migration, doesn't fare well for the next election.

Edited Monday at 17:09 by lost

[steviewevie]

I mean...it's supposed to be about Mandelson's vetting isn't it? Now it's just all gossipy bollocks that obviously is catnip to the media and the opposition but doesn't really serve any positive purpose for anything.

[steviewevie]

Yes, let's take on the bond markets.

Despite what the UK right will tell you, appeasing bond markets has actually led to instability | Andy Beckett | The Guardian