Football 2013-2014

[zahidf]

I think the problem is, man utd need to win two more matches than everton and spurs, and 3 more matches than Liverpool. (Or two matches and two more draws). Not impossible, but based on man utds current form....

[pink_triangle]

I think the problem is, man utd need to win two more matches than everton and spurs, and 3 more matches than Liverpool. (Or two matches and two more draws). Not impossible, but based on man utds current form....

[kaosmark2]

I think Man U will overtake at least one other team, not sure who though. The thing for me is they can't get 3.

[eFestivals]

Big result for Utd thanks to Kolo's quarterly clanger.

Big result for Utd? PMSL.

It's really not a big result for Utd, and while Liverpool should have won it's not a big loss of dropped points for them. Both of these teams will drop points in some games; it's the amount each drop compared to the other which will matter.

I didn't crow at the start of last week about Liverpool doing better against Everton than I thought they would, and I'm not going to do a headless chicken act at them doing worse again WBA than I thought they would.

These things even out.

[eFestivals]

On current league form, 4th place is going to require 74 points which means Utd need 34 more points from 14 games.

Thats a better average than City in their last 14 games.

That last line put *real* perspective on things. I'm glad to see people finally waking up to what fantastic form Utd would need to hit.

As it happens, 34 points is what Utd got in their last 16 games last season. You know, the season they were better than every other team (which they're defo not this season).

As I've been saying for a while, Utd's only hope is for the teams above them to implode.

[eFestivals]

I think however there's a good possibility that both merseyside teams could get less points in the second half of the season than the first, not to say man utd haven't got a tough job, but I don't see the total being as high as Neil.

with 5 matches of the 2nd half having taken place already, Liverpool remain on track to get *better* points over the 2nd half-season than they did in the 1st.

They have all of Arsenal, City and Chelsea to play - all teams they lost against in the 1st half. So no chance of losing from their 1/2 season points total in those matches, only gaining.

The only match where Liverpool stand a reasonable chance of fewer points in the 2nd half-season to the first is the Utd match, but that's more than covered by other games - beating Hull has that covered already.

To me Liverpool look like they are getting physically stretched and I'm not sure the squad has the legs.

Yep, there a bit of a sign of that .... but luckily for Liverpool, no other teams around them is looking less stretched or has a squad with better legs.

It's not like Utd's or Spurs or Everton's squad is better, stronger, faster ... is it?

I however don't think man utd and spurs should give up as neither of the 2 merseyside teams are as strong as recent 4th place finishers.

jesus PT, what are you taking? Do you ever reference the available facts, or just your fantasies?

It's exceedingly likely that both Merseyside clubs will finish with a greater points total than the 4th place finishers of the last 3 seasons - that's what everything is suggesting right now.

I'm happy to do a fiver with you on that.

[eFestivals]

However similar point gaps will be made up both in England and abroad this year.

Only by teams that are better than the teams above them.

When is the fact that Utd are crap going to become any part of your very funny analysis?

The one thing that is in Man Utds favour is they play both Merseyside teams which in theory makes it much easier to make up the points difference but in practice it is difficult to see them winning both at present.

If Utd beat Liverpool they'll still have a 4 points or greater gap between them and Liverpool.

One day - on the last day of the season, probably - you'll wise up to just how shit Utd are playing.

[pink_triangle]

with 5 matches of the 2nd half having taken place already, Liverpool remain on track to get *better* points over the 2nd half-season than they did in the 1st.

They have all of Arsenal, City and Chelsea to play - all teams they lost against in the 1st half. So no chance of losing from their 1/2 season points total in those matches, only gaining.

The only match where Liverpool stand a reasonable chance of fewer points in the 2nd half-season to the first is the Utd match, but that's more than covered by other games - beating Hull has that covered already.

Yep, there a bit of a sign of that .... but luckily for Liverpool, no other teams around them is looking less stretched or has a squad with better legs.

It's not like Utd's or Spurs or Everton's squad is better, stronger, faster ... is it?

jesus PT, what are you taking? Do you ever reference the available facts, or just your fantasies?

It's exceedingly likely that both Merseyside clubs will finish with a greater points total than the 4th place finishers of the last 3 seasons - that's what everything is suggesting right now.

I'm happy to do a fiver with you on that.

[pink_triangle]

Only by teams that are better than the teams above them.

When is the fact that Utd are crap going to become any part of your very funny analysis?

If Utd beat Liverpool they'll still have a 4 points or greater gap between them and Liverpool.

One day - on the last day of the season, probably - you'll wise up to just how shit Utd are playing.

[eFestivals]

1. Are those 5 games representative?

Perhaps not... but that merely takes into account any extra points above their 1st-half-season average that they might currently have.

2. Nearly all the relegation fodder they dispatched easily at home in the first half of the season, they face these teams away who need points for survivial. Its inevitable they will pick up less points in this games (considering they beat nearly all of them) its pretty much impossible for them to pick up more.

Exceedingly likely to be covered-off by the opposite fixtures to those (plus the extra points already collected from Everton) - the big teams coming to Anfield where L'pool got no points in the away fixtures.

The points they get from those big matches might be small, but they're still extras on the first half of the season.

3. I would certainly say spurs and everton have more legs in the midfield area. As the WBA manager said they realised they needed to press Gerrard and everything changed.

And yet nothing changed.

WBA didn't get a point due to pressing Gerrard, they got a point from the sort of cock-up that can and does happen at any club on occasions.

If there's any single factor that loses L'pool top 4, it'll be that Toure cock-up and not Utd beating Liverpool (if they do).

4. Can I just check what we are betting on? If its that both sides will exceed Arsenal from last season, I will gladly take on a charity bet. Although as I like helping charities and hope one of them finishes 4th, I will hope I lose!

The offer of a bet was a bit of a cock-up on my part, due to confusing finishing points in recent seasons. I'd forget that Arsenal got a bit more for 4th last season than in the other more recent seasons.

I'm happy to £5 charity bet on Everton and Liverpool both finishing with 69 or more points.

That's backing away from what I initially said I know, but 69 points is higher than what 5th place got in any recent year but last year - I reckon it's a fair bet (and close enough to what I initially said) if you're up for it?

[eFestivals]

My prediction of a 75% chance of one of the Merseyside teams getting 4th place is hardly a statement of confidence in their form to make up the deficit!!

However what should Man Utd do, accept their form isnt good, give up and prepare for next season? They have to work on improving and take it a game at a time, I dont think they should even think about what liverpool/everton may or may not do (apart from when they play them) as its out of their control.

Oh, I'm sure Utd will keep on keeping on.

But I'm also sure that doing that won't make any meaningful difference. Until they get some decent players they're doing not much at all.

[The Nal]

Big result for Utd? PMSL.

It's really not a big result for Utd,

Edited February 3, 2014 by The Nal

[zahidf]

Rivals dropping points when they weren't expected to? Come off it. Course its a big result. Just like Arsenal will be hoping for a draw later.

The league was virtually won by April. Utd dropped a lot of points in the run in. Dropped 12 points in the last 8 games. Its possible. 7 points isn't a mountain.

It is of course if Utd don't improve! But every game is huge now. Next 5 games - Fulham at home, Arsenal, Palace and West Brom all away and then Liverpool at home. Thats the season right there.

Liverpool have Arsenal on Saturday so Utd could be within 4 points by the weekend. Still all to play for.

[eFestivals]

Rivals dropping points when they weren't expected to?

It's only unexpected if you only expect the 'big' teams to drop points against each other. I've certainly not been thinking that would be the case for any teams.

It's not the dropping of points that will matter, it's the dropping of points compared to what other teams drop that will matter.

If Utd were closing the gap on the basis of their own form then that would be a big result, but when the gap grows (as it has with most teams above them) and Utd are still playing shite then there's really nothing to crow about from the Utd point of view.

Just like Arsenal will be hoping for a draw later.

That's a different thing entirely. Arsenal are actually in a real competition with those teams.

Utd are in a competition with the bottom end of the table at the mo (o0n from, anyway) - and on recent games (a whole string of them!) it's a competition they're currently losing.

(That sounds mightily harsh on re-back ... but the REALLY shocking thing is that it's true!)

Its possible.

Anything is possible in fantasy-land. Back in the real world....

Liverpool have Arsenal on Saturday so Utd could be within 4 points by the weekend. Still all to play for.

As I've said many times: the gap will close up, the gap will open out again.

That'll happen even if Utd improve their play by a fair bit.

Yep. Starting with Liverpool dropping two points yesterday!

Using your own rationale, it doesn't work when Utd "imploded" by a greater amount on the same weekend.

There's a lot of ways of looking at yesterday, but none of them are anything to much concern anyone at Liverpool (tho of course it's always better if you win).

Liverpool showed against City followed by Chelsea that they can raise themselves for one big game but that they can't for two in quick succession.

And as they've showed in the last couple of weeks, they can follow a comparative off-day (Villa) with fantastic play in the next game (Everton).

Have you seen how Liverpool's fixtures fall?

As long as they don't have too many of their easier games like the Villa and Baggies ones (and, in all reasonableness, they should have had 3 points from the Baggies; it wasn't really a deserved draw as it was with Villa) then they'll be fine - and while there's no easy games, they're not going to drop points in all of them.

As things stand today, they've still collected one more point as a total in the return fixtures so far than they did from the 1st half of the season, and that'll still be the situation if they lose against Arsenal.

There really isn't anything to be seen to worry Liverpool fans just yet, no matter how hard you Utd fans start inventing false positives like you have with yesterday's result.

But of course, it's not over yet. Liverpool might yet fuck up - but it won't be Utd that benefit if they do.

[pink_triangle]

That's backing away from what I initially said I know, but 69 points is higher than what 5th place got in any recent year but last year - I reckon it's a fair bet (and close enough to what I initially said) if you're up for it?

[DomDom1984]

I don't see why so much focus is still on this season. It's done. Deal with it. Where United need to really focus is the summer transfer window and look at sorting out the mess. Dump a shitload of deadwood and get some signings in there. Next season could potentially be far far better than this one. There's serious problems with the team from the midfield backwards which basically ensure that they'll leak too many goals to take over anyone significant.

[Wooderson]

Utd holding out for a capitulation from LFC in order to finish 4th no less.

The legacy of Ferguson right there. A mess.

[eFestivals]

I think thats a borderline bet for me, but as I think of it as a non lose bet, I will take it to make things interesting!

yeah, it could go either way I reckon ... but then again, if you see it as borderline, then why are you saying that Utd have any realistic chance of 4th at all?

Anyway, a fiver for a bit of fun to benefit chariteeee. Done.

[eFestivals]

I don't see why so much focus is still on this season. It's done. Deal with it. Where United need to really focus is the summer transfer window and look at sorting out the mess. Dump a shitload of deadwood and get some signings in there. Next season could potentially be far far better than this one. There's serious problems with the team from the midfield backwards which basically ensure that they'll leak too many goals to take over anyone significant.

Can Utd move on like that just yet? I'd say not (tho they should be moving on!).

Cos someone whose word cannot be doubted slipped them a poison pill that they all happily sucked on, and right now they're still sucking on that pill.

The question is: are they gonna swallow it, or will they spit it out?

Until they've made that decision they can't move forwards.

Edited February 3, 2014 by eFestivals

[zahidf]

Can Utd move on like that just yet? I'd say not (tho they should be moving on!).

Cos someone whose word cannot be doubted slipped them a poison pill that they all happily sucked on, and right now they're still sucking on that pill.

The question is: are they gonna swallow it, or will they spit it out?

Until they've made that decision they can't move forwards.

Edited February 3, 2014 by zahidf

[zahidf]

Also, Man Utd are 13-19 points behind compared to last season!

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/league-table.html?season=2012-2013&month=JANUARY&timelineView=date&toDate=1359504000000&tableView=CURRENT_STANDINGS

Edited February 3, 2014 by zahidf

[The Nal]

I do wonder, if they just miss out on Top 4 by say 1 point on the last game of the season, will the board sack Moyes then, or give him one more chance?

[pink_triangle]

I don't see why so much focus is still on this season. It's done. Deal with it. .

[pink_triangle]

I do wonder, if they just miss out on Top 4 by say 1 point on the last game of the season, will the board sack Moyes then, or give him one more chance?

[eFestivals]

Moyes is getting at least another season regardless of where Utd finish.

Have to admit though, apart from Januzaj and the Mata signing, there aren't a whole lot of positives to be taken from him being in charge as of yet.

Bearing in mind that it was a title winning squad, and that there's been near constant boasts of "everything has been built at the club to ensure on-going success" come out of OT for the last 5+ years....

And then in comes Moyes and sacks all of the staff that could have ensured continuity to instead impose his own team including a rank amateur in his first coaching job, and everything then turns to shit....

Why would they stick with him?

Yes, he's been left with a squad that's far less good than it should be (and that's fergie's fault), but the drop in performances has been more than just the issues with squad strength.

Just to cheer you up, it looks like Spurs are going for Van Gaal in the summer.

Yeah thats probably due to all the games Utd have lost.