The Dirty Independence Question

[Comfy Bean]

1 hour ago, russycarps said:

I note the number of school leavers on the electoral roll in England has fallen by 25% since 2014. And a massive 33% in Scotland.

Which I find very strange, because throughout the independence referendum we had been lead to believe that scottish people are much more politically engaged than the english

Very odd indeed.

 

I'd suggest that throughout the independence referendum Scottish people were much more politically engaged than the English. Would have been more odd surely  if that had not been the case ?

In my view, the same will happen next time round.

[kaosmark2]

I suspect turnout for the GE will be very low, and particularly low in Scotland. 3rd major election in 3 years for everyone, 4th in 4 for Scotland. Motivation to get out and vote will be low. Remember that the Brexit referendum had a fairly low turnout in Scotland anyway?

[eFestivals]

18 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

I'd suggest that throughout the independence referendum Scottish people were much more politically engaged than the English. Would have been more odd surely  if that had not been the case ?

In my view, the same will happen next time round.

engaged by sucking up lies? Yep, you'll be the same 'engaged', about the same as a kipper in the EU ref.

 

 

[Comfy Bean]

39 minutes ago, kaosmark2 said:

I suspect turnout for the GE will be very low, and particularly low in Scotland. 3rd major election in 3 years for everyone, 4th in 4 for Scotland. Motivation to get out and vote will be low. Remember that the Brexit referendum had a fairly low turnout in Scotland anyway?

Aye, think your right. Voter fatigue etc.

I expect the next Indy ref will also see a drop In numbers compared to 2014 although that should still be pretty high.

[eFestivals]

Sturgeon has explicitly said she doesn't want the Euro.

Which has made EU membership for an iScotland more than a little tricky, cos it's put her euro-skepticism to 'the project' on full display,

I doubt anyone from the EU is going to come out and tell her to fuck off then, but you can be sure it will have consequences - and most particularly around the chances of a nice transitional deal.

Which is probably her plan anyway ... but don't go telling the rabid snippers, they'll have to invent a new latest line for what indy is good for.

[LJS]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Sturgeon has explicitly said she doesn't want the Euro.

Has she?

 

I can't find her explicitly saying any such thing.

 

the nearest I can find is this...

 

Quote

 

She said the "starting point" was the pound and not the Euro.

Ms Sturgeon added: "When we come to an independence referendum - if we come to an independence referendum - these issues will be subject to the greatest scrutiny.

"There is no rule that forces any member of the European Union to join the Euro, so that is simply a statement of fact that no country can be forced to join the Euro, but we are in a Westminster election campaign right now, not an independence referendum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39920799

 Now, given your powers of interpretation & paraphrase, i can understand how you reach your conclusion but of  course even if we accept that she "doesn't want the Euro" its no different from TMay not wanting an early election, or not wanting immigration to exceed the 10's of thousands. Its not a cast iron commitment & as we all know that the EU has never ever forced anyone to actually join the Euro, it  is also totally meaningless.

Quote

 

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Which has made EU membership for an iScotland more than a little tricky, cos it's put her euro-scepticism to 'the project' on full display,

It demonstrates that she has a bit of a balancing act to perform trying to persuade those who favour an indy Scotland but don't much like the Eu to prioritise the first over the second. 

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I doubt anyone from the EU is going to come out and tell her to fuck off then,

Glas we agree on this.

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

but you can be sure it will have consequences - and most particularly around the chances of a nice transitional deal.

Everything has consequences.

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Which is probably her plan anyway ... but don't go telling the rabid snippers, they'll have to invent a new latest line for what indy is good for.

I'll make a deal. I'll not tell the rabid snippers, if you don't tell the rabid Yoons.

You do know each is as bad as the other don't you?

 

[eFestivals]

6 hours ago, LJS said:

Has she?

 

I can't find her explicitly saying any such thing.

Doh. I did a zadihf, and trusted twitter. I was, tho, trusting a full-blown & known & respected media outlet, and not some random.

 

6 hours ago, LJS said:

It demonstrates that she has a bit of a balancing act to perform trying to persuade those who favour an indy Scotland but don't much like the Eu to prioritise the first over the second. 

yeah, it demonstrates that she got it all wrong.

 

6 hours ago, LJS said:

I'll make a deal. I'll not tell the rabid snippers, if you don't tell the rabid Yoons.

You do know each is as bad as the other don't you?

Really? Only one of them does fact denial, which makes them distinctly different.

[russycarps]

well, that went well.

 

[Comfy Bean]

11 minutes ago, russycarps said:

well, that went well.

 

Ruth Davidson: ‘Indyref2 is dead’

I disagree with Ruth. I think the SNP will reflect on how the Tories campaigned up here on this single issue and the results from yesterday.

Let the Unionists have their day and hold their hands up to how Scotland voted. Put Indy on the back burner and let the Tories take us all forward through Brexit........... Long term the dream is far from dead.

Us YES supporters can only reflect on where we are now and the different path we could have been on.

Better together, rule brittania etc. Have we invaded Gibraltar yet 

[eFestivals]

5 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Put Indy on the back burner

and if she'd done that 3 months ago...?

Like it or not, Sturgeon called the politics around an indyref no less wrong than I did with Corbyn.

She fucked it up herself. It's all her own doing, because she got carried away last June after the brexit vote, and boxed herself into a corner where she had to call one that she didn't really want to call - to keep the indynutters like you on side.

 

8 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Long term the dream is far from dead.

I'm holding back from calling it dead. I reckon you'd be wise to similarly hold back from saying nothing has changed.

Things *have* changed. Where they've changed to gets worked out properly over the coming months and years.

Indy is much less of the certainty you used to say it was.

[Comfy Bean]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

I she had to call one that she didn't really want to call - to keep the indynutters like you on side.

Yes you right. I have been consistent since 2014 in saying that NS should call another ref as soon as possible. I never suggested waiting another 5 years minimum which, at the time, would have meant back burner till after when we were expecting the next GE to be.

I have not said nothing has changed so no idea why you are claiming that. I am saying the Tories deliberate move to merge their brand up here into the anti -indy unionist party has won the day. Ruth`s strategy has worked campaigning on no Tory policies and only on no indy ref 2. This has clearly worked, fair play to her. The unionist vote is hers and it showed up big time.

Long term, with more years of Tory rule and brexit to come, the SNP and YES movement may benefit. The Tory brand has been sunk up here before. The dream will never die 

I expect the SNP will take indy off the table. The Tories are now cemented as the 2nd biggest party up here. If NS does take it off the table and is crystal clear about that, it will be interesting to see how Ruth gets on with that awkward Tory policy stuff. The SNP have been running the show for 10 years. I expect normal service to resume pretty quickly in Holyrood and then we can see how everyone feels down the line.

As I said in the gen thread this morning, when Cumnock has a Tory MP you need to sit down and reflect.

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Yes you right. I have been consistent since 2014 in saying that NS should call another ref as soon as possible. I never suggested waiting another 5 years minimum which, at the time, would have meant back burner till after when we were expecting the next GE to be.

I didn't say you specifically. 

Your take is not the only one, nor the strongest one.

 

9 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Long term, with more years of Tory rule and brexit to come, the SNP and YES movement may benefit. The Tory brand has been sunk up here before. The dream will never die 

the dream might not. The reality might do.

People in Scotland don't really want indy, that's pretty clear. They want more money for govt, as long as it's not their own.

 

10 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

I expect the SNP will take indy off the table.

snigger.

They supposedly did at this election, but it fooled no one. Sturgeon has made clear that indy over-rides all sense, and Scotland wants a bit of sense.

11 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

The Tories are now cemented as the 2nd biggest party up here.

very definitely NOT 'cemented'.

Which is why you're so desperate to pretend that they are.

12 minutes ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

If NS does take it off the table and is crystal clear about that, it will be interesting to see how Ruth gets on with that awkward Tory policy stuff.

There's no crystal clear she can ever do. It's the sole reason for that party's existence, and Sturgeon has made that clear and there's no fooling anyone with the pretence it's off the table any more.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the SNP do better at a next election, because the Scottish want of more-more-more for me-me-me isn't going to go away and there's good reasons why people might think the SNP are most likely to bring that. But as their vote creeps up towards 50% again (if it does), people will become more disinclined to vote for them.

 

[eFestivals]

So, that's that then....

Quote

The SNP has taken down its fundraising page for a second independence referendum ahead of schedule.

The appeal was launched on 13 March - the day that Nicola Sturgeon called for another vote on independence - and had been due to run until 21 June.

But it was closed early having apparently raised about half of its £1m target.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40263711

As someone might have mentioned, either May would throw her a bone or she'd bottle it.

Meanwhile, people like comfy say "in a few more years" ... and yet why would someone who wanted indy not want it now? Either indy is wanted or it's not, and if people don't want it now it's just about impossible to see why they'd want it in a few years time.

Yep, in a few years time the UK might be utterly shit and cause more to want indy, but it also gets to show that indy is not something which is wanted just for itself - and shows it's all about the money.

Edited June 14, 2017 by eFestivals

[LJS]

15 hours ago, eFestivals said:

So, that's that then....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40263711

As someone might have mentioned, either May would throw her a bone or she'd bottle it.

Meanwhile, people like comfy say "in a few more years" ... and yet why would someone who wanted indy not want it now? Either indy is wanted or it's not, and if people don't want it now it's just about impossible to see why they'd want it in a few years time.

Yep, in a few years time the UK might be utterly shit and cause more to want indy, but it also gets to show that indy is not something which is wanted just for itself - and shows it's all about the money.

actually it doesn't, Neil. Otherwise we'd all have voted SNP 30 or 40 years ago when we would undoubtedly have been up to our necks in money.

The reality is that people's reasons for favouring Indy...or not. are many & varied just as they are in any other elections & referenda.

[Comfy Bean]

15 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

Meanwhile, people like comfy say "in a few more years" ... 

Thank you :-)

This is one of the few times you have accurately represented my views.

The election of so many Tories has given Sturgeon a bloody nose. She will have to fight them off again in my view and regroup.

Without the no indy ref 2 chat the Tory policies will be exposed for what they are. Sturgeon will soon be extending her lead.

Im sad that we aren't going forward under an Snp or Labour Government but we are where we are and it's not what the majority of folk living in Scotland wanted.

Lets see where we are in a few years as Neil pointed out.

[LJS]

Thought I'd better post this before Neil does...

 

[LJS]

But interestingly...

 

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, LJS said:

actually it doesn't, Neil. Otherwise we'd all have voted SNP 30 or 40 years ago when we would undoubtedly have been up to our necks in money.

but according to the snippers myth you didn't know about the money because a report that would have stayed confidential in all circumstances was apparently hushed-up as a lie to the people of Scotland.

So which is it? Were you lied to about the oil and didn't know it was worth a lot so you couldn't vote SNP/money back then, or you were never lied to about the oil and its associated wealth and the snippers myth is a myth?

 

12 hours ago, LJS said:

The reality is that people's reasons for favouring Indy...or not. are many & varied just as they are in any other elections & referenda.

I don't disagree. There's plenty who are fully-wedded to indy.

The problem for indy is that they only number about 30%. Getting the numbers for victory is dependant on the money.

[eFestivals]

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Thank you :-)

This is one of the few times you have accurately represented my views.

The election of so many Tories has given Sturgeon a bloody nose. She will have to fight them off again in my view and regroup.

Without the no indy ref 2 chat the Tory policies will be exposed for what they are. Sturgeon will soon be extending her lead.

Do you think? 

Or do you think the regular Sturgeon claims of "this vote isn't about indy" only for her to reveal it is straight after the vote, and he false claims of "the Scottish people will decide when" has exposed her dogged determination for indy in any and all circumstances?

It certainly has with some (I've seen it said often enough) - and plenty of those are still quite happy to vote SNP for holyrood while becoming ever-more set against indy itself.

 

12 hours ago, comfortablynumb1910 said:

Lets see where we are in a few years as Neil pointed out.

In the same situation, where greater poverty is still guaranteed, and where brexit (if it happens) will demonstrate just-a-little-bit of the turmoil Scotland will suffer if it splits from the UK.

So I can't see it changing, but you never know I guess.

 

[eFestivals]

50 minutes ago, LJS said:

Thought I'd better post this before Neil does...

 

 

36 minutes ago, LJS said:

But interestingly...

 

which only demonstrates that some indy supporters are wanting better conditions for indy before they'll back indy.

As I said, it's about the money.

I've always said that I don't doubt indy could win in better economic circumstances, don't forget.

Edited June 15, 2017 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

2 hours ago, LJS said:

But interestingly...

 

 

BUT ..... unfortunately....

 

 

[LJS]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

 

which only demonstrates that some indy supporters are wanting better conditions for indy before they'll back indy.

As I said, it's about the money.

 

Ah, the $9bn man says it's all about the money.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, LJS said:

Ah, the $9bn man says it's all about the money.

yep. That's the £9Bn you need to find before you'll get your dream of indy.

In a nutshell.

 

[eFestivals]

now, unfortunately - people said it couldn't happen  - officially bottled.

 

[LJS]

4 hours ago, eFestivals said:

now, unfortunately - people said it couldn't happen  - officially bottled.

 

SNP manifesto 2017:

• Hold a second independence referendum "at the end of the Brexit process"

SNP today:

Ms Sturgeon stressed that she continued to be "strongly committed" to Scotland having a choice on its future at the end of the Brexit process.