The Dirty Independence Question

[eFestivals]

Have you got a link to this, I'd like to show a friend. This page specifically with the Scotland and rUK statistics side by side.

*edit - just seen your follow up post. My mate is determined rUK's deficit would be higher than iScotland's. Would like something official to prove my point.

One of the bits I quoted linked to here:-

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/GERS/RelatedAreas/LRfiscalbalances2013

But that and links from that page gives only Scottish stuff, I think.

I just googled and found this:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/236579/scotland_analysis_macroeconomic_and_fiscal_performance.pdf

... which has some comparison data, tho I've not looked enough at it to know exactly what it covers. Might be worth further reading tho.

Edited August 21, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

PS - you need to be slightly careful which year you show your mate, because some are much better than others. For example, 2010-11 has Scotland doing better than the UK average, while 2011-12 has it doing worse.

In the medium and long term tho, only a fool would think it will get better or stay the same when oil is a diminishing resource. And because an independent Scotland would be a new risk to the money markets (with no credit history), an independent Scotland is going to have to make deeper cuts than just the poor numbers by themselves will cause.

(the SNP will claim they'll work miracles with the economy to cover the drop-off from oil, but will this yet-another example of Scottish exceptionalism ever be seen? It's not like every country isn't already doing it's best to improve things.)

[LJS]

Gosh, you chaps do get carried away when I'm not around to keep you right.

Off to the pub now...have fun

[eFestivals]

Gosh, you chaps do get carried away when I'm not around to keep you right.

Off to the pub now...have fun

You tell us the indyref is not about Salmond.

Now you've discovered that this thread is not about you.

[eFestivals]

It's myth-busting day ..... (thanks again, 'Abiesalba')....

The McCro0ne report wasn't suppressed. It was a briefing paper that was written by a civil servant, and these briefing papers are never published.

As told by McCrone himself, on page 63 here:-

http://www.royalsoced.org.uk/cms/files/events/reports/2013-2014/The%20Book.pdf

[Comfy Bean]

Really? You need to keep away from those facebook nutters, they'll be what bankrupt you.

I`m not on facebook.

The number of nat lies about the oil is out of control. You do know there's solid proof that even the hated OBR have been OVER-estimating the oil, don't you?

There is oil and it will last for a while yet. We should view it as an added bonus not a burden or the main reason for indy. Scotland can be a successful country without it imo. To save pointless arguing over more numbers and opinions I`ll just say that we have a very small % of the people in Europe and a very large % of ALL the natural resources available.

You know, the people that St Alec says have been under-estimating have been under-estimating. And anyone who disagrees with Alec is a liar, bullying, bluster ... but the oil research done by his mates is good and honest, even if no one else in the world - especially the oil industry itself - agrees.

Lots and lots of people hold different views on the volume and value of oil available. I suspect none of them will be 100% correct

You're following a man who claims to be an economist who doesn't even understand what an asset is. Tho that's probably cos it's only half a degree, and a desmond at that.

I am not following a man and this has been explained again and again and again.

Edited August 21, 2014 by comfortablynumb1910

[Comfy Bean]

Greece, even today, is a viable independent country. So is Nigeria, Sudan, and Chad.

'Viable' is not necessarily a great thing.

I know. Rusty reckons its not a viable option. It is.........but your right that viable doesn`t have to mean good. My point was indy IS an option that was all.

Only *AFTER* he's turded your country with his lies, so that the options you'll be voting for only equal the same shit that's come out of Alec's arse.

Here you are going on about Eck again. He really is the only show in your town. Try and look beyond 1 man.

I think yes too.

Agreed

Do you think that iScotland would be capable of maintaining it's current economic parity with rUK?

Yes or No ?

I think NO. On the basis of solid economics.

What about you, and why?

Yes. I think in the short term there will be little or no difference felt by anyone. The sky will not fall in. We will have a currency. No walls will be built. The moves will BEGIN to remove nuclear weapons from our soil. The bedroom tax will be abolished and we will vote in our first government. By the election after that I would like to think MOST things will have been successfully negotiated with concessions from Scotland and rUK. Successful negotiations will be in the interest of all sides. It would not be the strangest thing that has ever happened if a real type of Labour party won the 2nd election. I would expect the SNP would win the first one.

I fully accept that there will be financial costs just as you have previously accepted that there will also be financial gains. I previously posted a table showing the potential savings. Of course some of these will factor in any negotiations

Do you think nothing like that happens in Scotland, even now?

Alec has been taking money from the poor to give to the middle classes to shore-up his own support ... and the result is a worse NHS in Scotland, and greater poverty in Scotland, and lower opportunities for the poorest in Scotland.

In my opinion the NHS in Scotland is in a healthier state than down South. This is nothing to boast about though. You are banging on about Alex again but I would say that your point / opinion has no basis in fact. Middle class people are not affected by the bedroom tax but the SNP have been directing funds into this area for a while to remove the impact on the poorest and most vunerable in Scotland. There are plenty of other examples of money NOT being taken from the poor and given to the middle classes by the Scottish Government. I bet you posted that without even a hint of irony

http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/-60-million-to-help-heat-homes-9e5.aspx

[Comfy Bean]

Woops. Meant to post this link on the NHS. There are lots more on Virgin Care and their moves in England but you get the point from this article. Surely nobody believes that any of this is being done by the tories in the name of patient care. We want a different NHS up here.....as I`m sure everyone does in England. Surely a NO vote is at best a quiet nod to this type of thing..... " yeah we know whats happening but carry on " We hardly ever have anything on here about the consequences of a NO vote for Scotland.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fury-tory-party-donors-handed-3123469

[LJS]

It's myth-busting day ..... (thanks again, 'Abiesalba')....

The McCro0ne report wasn't suppressed. It was a briefing paper that was written by a civil servant, and these briefing papers are never published.

As told by McCrone himself, on page 63 here:-

http://www.royalsoced.org.uk/cms/files/events/reports/2013-2014/The%20Book.pdf

Totally irrelevant.

We were lied to.

Fact

Could we still be being lied to?

I don't know.

Do you?

[LJS]

This was a good thread.

We had some really good discussions about the issues that are central to the Indy debate.

Recently Neil & russy have resorted to personal insult as a nogotiatong tool.

Not my way.

So I'm out.

If you want to continue the debate in a civilized manner ....Let me know

[eFestivals]

There is oil and it will last for a while yet. We should view it as an added bonus not a burden or the main reason for indy. Scotland can be a successful country without it imo. To save pointless arguing over more numbers and opinions I`ll just say that we have a very small % of the people in Europe and a very large % of ALL the natural resources available.

Natural resources, currently hugely subsided by the UK for the investment to exploit them. That won't continue post-indy and nor will any commitment to continue buy electric from Scotland, which puts iScotland in a totally different game with its renewables.

Meanwhile, back at the oil, there's no getting away from the fact that it's vitally important for making iScotland balance it's books at the current time, and that iScotland quickly slips into the shit if it keeps its current spending levels while the oil revenues keep on reducing.

The chances of an oil fund is zero, and iScotland's fiscal position is very weak without tory-type spending cuts. If you're voting yes, do make sure you tell your countrymen the truth of this.

Lots and lots of people hold different views on the volume and value of oil available. I suspect none of them will be 100% correct

Very true. The oil price is hugely volatile for a start (which of course means that iScotland's already-precarious fiscal position is very volatile too - as the last few year's massively increasing Scottish deficit gets to show).

Meanwhile, the most likely to be the most inaccurate is who? Might it be the person giving the most optimistic estimates? He has a name of Alex.

I am not following a man and this has been explained again and again and again.

But you *ARE* voting to support his independence plans, which you get no further say over until it's all over. What Alex says is what happens.

So ultimately, you ARE following him - to your doom, or to your better future. Which one of those it is is largely in the hands of the man you're (not ) following.

Edited August 22, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Here you are going on about Eck again. He really is the only show in your town. Try and look beyond 1 man.

I do. I look at his plan and see where it leaves your country before you get at have any influence at all on anything, and then look beyond that.

And mostly, you're fucked. At least, fucked compared to how things are right now.

Why don't you also try looking beyond the one man? Mostly yes-ers don't look beyond today, because they say every future day will be just like today but better.

[eFestivals]

Yes. I think in the short term there will be little or no difference felt by anyone. The sky will not fall in. We will have a currency. No walls will be built. The moves will BEGIN to remove nuclear weapons from our soil. The bedroom tax will be abolished and we will vote in our first government. By the election after that I would like to think MOST things will have been successfully negotiated with concessions from Scotland and rUK. Successful negotiations will be in the interest of all sides. It would not be the strangest thing that has ever happened if a real type of Labour party won the 2nd election. I would expect the SNP would win the first one.

I fully accept that there will be financial costs just as you have previously accepted that there will also be financial gains. I previously posted a table showing the potential savings. Of course some of these will factor in any negotiations

Then you've got a MIGHTY MIGHTY shock coming.

iScotland won't get a loan to cover its first year of existence without first promising to make massive spending cuts (or big tax rises, as the alternative). iScotland is around the same risk to lenders as Greece without those massive cuts.

[eFestivals]

In my opinion the NHS in Scotland is in a healthier state than down South. This is nothing to boast about though. You are banging on about Alex again but I would say that your point / opinion has no basis in fact. Middle class people are not affected by the bedroom tax but the SNP have been directing funds into this area for a while to remove the impact on the poorest and most vunerable in Scotland. There are plenty of other examples of money NOT being taken from the poor and given to the middle classes by the Scottish Government. I bet you posted that without even a hint of irony

So you've visited and used both health services all around both countries to know, have you?

In the absence o either of us having done that, we have only the official reports to go on - which shows that the Scottish NHS is not in a healthier state than down south. It costs more in Scotland for the same health outcome.

As for taking money from the poor to give to the richer types, I suggest you look up the costs of things and see how that's working out in everywhere except guessland.

Isn't it strange how Alex hasn't actually done anything for the poor except highlighted how nasty Westminster is? There's not actually any nice policies of Alex's own for Scotland, only policies to highlight and widen the divide he's already created.

Meanwhile the actual real issue behind the bedroom tax lingers on untouched in Scotland, where its an unsustainable policy for welfare to keep paying for unneeded provision for claimants. Sooner or later this will have to be addressed - and it'll be addressed on indy-day, with the need for massive cuts.

[eFestivals]

Woops. Meant to post this link on the NHS. There are lots more on Virgin Care and their moves in England but you get the point from this article. Surely nobody believes that any of this is being done by the tories in the name of patient care. We want a different NHS up here.....as I`m sure everyone does in England. Surely a NO vote is at best a quiet nod to this type of thing..... " yeah we know whats happening but carry on " We hardly ever have anything on here about the consequences of a NO vote for Scotland.

Few believe that the tories are contracting out in the name of patient care (tho that can certainly be proven as the effect with the smaller contracting out that Labour allowed).

The tories are contracting out because of cost, in the belief that private will be cheaper - and while I disagree with everything about how that cheaper is planned to be achieved, there's certainly a decent economic case that cheaper can be delivered in the short term and quite possibly the medium term too (I find it almost impossible to see it work longterm, but there you go).

Meanwhile, nothing of this has any impact at all on Scotland's NHS. If NHS England costs remain within England's healthcare budget then Scotland loses nothing from it's block grant, and if NHS England costs are covered by payments by individuals and so the Scottish 'block grant' is cut there'll also be a cut taxes of the same amount - leaving Scotland free to implement it's own tax of the same amount as the cut and so Scotland loses nothing.

Of everything said during the indyref, Alex's concentration on the money for Scotland NHS in the last few weeks shows just how economically illiterate he is - either that, or willing to say anything to con the people of Scotland (while also calling you thick as pigshit for not being able to work the simple maths yourself).

Take your pick. Either way, Salmond is a danger to Scotland, and the Scottish NHS is not in danger by what England does.

[russycarps]

I know. Rusty reckons its not a viable option. It is.........but your right that viable doesn`t have to mean good. My point was indy IS an option that was all.

of course scotland can be exist as an independent country. Although voting to have a currency union, keeping the queen etc is a funny sort of independence. The point is independence will massively weaken scotland. Is there still any doubt about this? Is it viable to vote yourself weaker?

How will scotland be able to afford the socialist dream you think you will be getting? Do you think the majority of scots will accept large tax increases for the masses while corporation tax is slashed?

If that is the case, then good luck to scotland, and I'd consider moving there myself. But there is no evidence that alex salmond has an appetite for your socialist dream, as his actions prove.

How is voting for a much weaker version of the status quo a viable option?

The uk has many many many faults, but I suspect you wont know how good you had it til it's gone.

[eFestivals]

Totally irrelevant.

We were lied to.

Fact

Nope, information was withheld - a different thing to "lying".

Meanwhile, what is Alex withholding from you?

Well, he's certainly not withholding legal advice on iScotland's EU status, that's for sure. He lied to you about having had advice, and got caught out.

What about the costs of indy, for setting up the departments of state? Has he disclosed those to you, or have those been withheld by him?

Could we still be being lied to?

I don't know.

Do you?

I do. You're still being lied to about the oil - by Alex.

What about the basis for his own oil estimates? Has he disclosed how he's come up with those numbers, or has he refused to disclose the methodology used? Why, it's the later, where just like that "lying" UK govt, he's withholding from you his own info about "your" oil.

Now, why might the proven liar Alex refuse to disclose how he's come up with these massively high (higher than anyone else) estimnates? Might it be because his method is flawed, or even that that there's no method at all, just numbers plucked from the air?

We don't know which because Alex won't disclose. No different to the UK govt back in the late 70s.

And this is the "better" you're voting for.

[eFestivals]

This was a good thread.

We had some really good discussions about the issues that are central to the Indy debate.

Recently Neil & russy have resorted to personal insult as a nogotiatong tool.

Not my way.

So I'm out.

If you want to continue the debate in a civilized manner ....Let me know

All I did was take the piss out of you for your aviodance of the debate you're now running from on a laughable basis.

It's rather amusing that you're running away during the most factual part of t6he whole debate here, where the numbers prove Alex's claims as laughable.

Oh well, they'll be no running away from the effects of Alex.... unless you run to Etonite tory Westminster-run horrible England.

[LJS]

All I did was take the piss out of you for your aviodance of the debate you're now running from on a laughable basis.

It's rather amusing that you're running away during the most factual part of t6he whole debate here, where the numbers prove Alex's claims as laughable.

Oh well, they'll be no running away from the effects of Alex.... unless you run to Etonite tory Westminster-run horrible England.

Aye right.

Am now concentrating my efforts on persuading people who actually have a vote.

[zahidf]

YES campaign corruption

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11049718/Scottish-mandarin-faces-questions-over-referendum-spend.html

[Comfy Bean]

This was a good thread.

We had some really good discussions about the issues that are central to the Indy debate.

Recently Neil & russy have resorted to personal insult as a nogotiatong tool.

Not my way.

So I'm out.

If you want to continue the debate in a civilized manner ....Let me know

This would really be a shame. I have always found your views interesting and you have always put over a very reasoned debate and managed to rise above the silly stuff. I said before that I always imagined you and Neil having some great debates down a pub somewhere. I think that a couple of the posts recently from Neil have been a bit below the belt and I am not surprised you found it a bit too personal. I remain convinced that the two of you are not that far apart on alot of things in life and maybe he is struggling more than ever to keep his secret YES leanings submerged.....

I wish you well sir and hope to be reading your views on here again soon. Like in the " real " world it`s looking like a lost cause but you never ever know

[Comfy Bean]

Nope, information was withheld - a different thing to "lying".

Is this, as we say in the North, a ewe turn ?

I`m not trawling back through to check but were you not the man who defended the McCrone stuff on several occasions ?

But now your story is there is nothing to defend ?

Did you not defend " lying " giving examples on why/when it is ok in your book.....sure one involved your neighbour being a burglar or something.

[Comfy Bean]

Right so we are all agreed on one thing. Despite the many sacrifices paid all around the world for the right to govern your own country, Scotland looks unlikely to put a cross in a box that would allow us to take responsibility for our own decisions. NO THANKS looks like being our answer

I can only see one " game changer ". Our beloved Alex is going to have to fall on his sword ( perhaps literally ) live on the BBC on Monday night.

A speech that would bring a tear to a glass eye about how he has been honored / very proud to lead us to the eve of Independence / be our First Minister but it is now time for the ( younger ) people of Scotland to take centre stage / new dawn etc blahblahblah could yet get us closer to an unlikely victory.

Both on here and in every poll King Eck takes a " doo-ing ". With defeat almost certain he is weeks away from a messy end as the SNP will be planning to have him out asap. He is always one of the main reasons given by people voting NO. This is madness but it is what it is.

He ain`t daft and will know that defeat will be the end. Should he resign ( before he is pushed ) then as well as maybe getting a raft of people to atleast think about changing their minds ( mostly Labour voters and there are lots of those ) he can head to the lucrative after dinner circuit as the man who threw it all away for the love of his Country ( obviously I`m being silly now ).

I cannot think of anything else now that could get a bit of momentum behind YES.

Cameron gambled on the 1 question and it looks like paying off. I think that Salmond may now need to gamble with his career........

Thoughts ? Can anyone else see any other " game changer " ?

[LJS]

Could you elaborate on what you mean by a 'better society'? Surely the things that make that better society can only be built on the revenue that is underpinning it? And Scotland is in defecit already. If the difference in figures pre and post-Indy is 'marginal either way' then what is going to change? And what policies are Westminster prohibiting you doing as things stand that is halting us having this better society? Yes we may have more food banks etc but we also have free prescriptions and tuition. Isn't it merely a case of where and how our money is distributed that determines these things? From where I'm looking the SNP already have full control of all that. Healthcare, schools, universities, roads, police etc etc. From 2016 we're going to have the power to set our own income tax rate which brings even more accountability and opportunities for the Scots government. So what is it really that's going to be so radically different that's worth breaking up the union and the safety net it provides?

I realised that I had promised to reply to you Mr beard, so I will make brief return to the thread to do so.

I appreciate your contributions as you make sensible & reasoned points & don't engage in point scoring. I assume you have a vote as you say you live in Edinburgh.

What do I mean by a better society? I mean a society that prioritises the elimination of poverty & equality of opportunity.

In theory an independent Scotland is not more able to do this than the UK.

In practice, I can't envisage a UK government that can begin to deliver this. I have asked on this thread a number of times for people to talk me through how it is likely to happen.

I'm stll waiting.

If you assume Scotland will be poorer post Indy, then that certainly makes this more of a challenge but equally having more money won't begin to guarantee it.

Personally I don't believe Scotland's financial position will be much different in the short term.

It is indisputable that there are many many countries who manage to achieve greater equality than the UK. They are not all richer than us.

In the he longer term I have no doubt that a Scottish government enacting policies in Scotland's interests will enable Scotland to perform economically at least as well if not better than rUK.

You ask what is stopping us addressing these things now?

Firstly we have an SNP government who , whilst doing a pretty good job, are not going to do as anything too controversial because their main aim is to win the referendum.

Secondly, we do not have control of welfare spending.

Thirdly, the Labour party is beholden to to London so cannot offer a real radical alternative.

You ask what radical difference there will be? I don't think we are talking short term here. I would expect the process to take some time.

Edited August 22, 2014 by LJS

[eFestivals]

Am now concentrating my efforts on persuading people who actually have a vote.

Cool. Do just remember tho that if they disagree with you they're no more 'feart' than you are 'stupid', and that the self-determination of Scotland is delivered via a 'no' vote no less than it is by a 'yes' vote.