WEATHER 2009 !

[kloot]

Looks just a little concerning at the mo, looks nice up until Saturday morning but then how much rain after that is anyones guess, even Jackones not sure and he knows it, we're still a few days away to be definite with anything.

From what I can scan from the present various forecasts, Wednesday to Friday looks warm and sunny for the festival but towards Saturday and Sunday you may need to unpack your wellies! However all are pretty sure it won't be monsoon stylee at any point of the fest. So the small amount of wet mud that may appear will probably dry up and vanish rapidly.

[sickbird_uk]

The word you are looking for is Outlier not Outliner.

Edited June 18, 2009 by sickbird_uk

[kloot]

The word you are looking for is Outlier not Outliner.

[sickbird_uk]

You're too kind.

[Cooter]

Yeah, and the forecasts of rain for the Sat/Sun are 'outliners' (I believe is the term), so they shouldn't cause unusual concern. It's still the best forecast in my memory at the moment.

Anyhoo, here is a photo of the site from today from the amazing wickedfaeire: http://www.wickedfaerie.co.uk/webcam/zoomi...older=18-6-2009

[kloot]

Yea, you're not wrong, I quite agree.

And that link is coming up with just a third of a screen pic?

[Breeze]

Just looking at the GFS output for the most recent run (12z) there is a lot of rain forecasted for Saturday and Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on GFS -> Europa -> >180 (along the bottom) > Neiderschlag (rain)

Then click on 192, 204, 216 etc to show projected rainfall moving up from France on Saturday.

Obviously it's a long way off so it's unlikely to happen just like that, but it's worrying that it's a possibility!

[Cooter]

Saturday doens't look hilarious and Sunday looks like it'd be time to get the canoe out on that one. Maybe if we tell the French to lay off putting their washing on the line that may help?

[Glastonbury_2011]

There better not be rain next weekend.

[CATKIN]

not a chance ! i demand glorious sunshine from weds morning 'till monday afternoon,after that it can do what it fooking wants for the rest of the year !

[mjs]

The word you are looking for is Outlier not Outliner.

[Cooter]

On the subject of outliers heres a classic example:

The graph at the bottom represent rainfall totals and if you notice the lime green line is the one that is shown as the operational. As you can see, there is virtually no support from any other 21 permutations so those high amounts of rainfall are looking highly unlikely over the saturday and sunday. Theres still a chance of some rain, don't get me wrong, but i reckon it's going to be in the form of showers which might be hit and miss anyway.

I'm getting the feeling if JACKONE had access to these ensembles when he made the forecast he would of rated it back up to an 8!

Looks almost nailed on for temps to get up in the mid 20's and some really nice conditions up until friday at the very least!

[Haggis]

it IS looking a bit 2004 unfortunately...Friday glorious then an overnight downpour saturday. Was JUST drying out on Sunday when we got another one...and from then it was heavy showers all the way

[Pauljoanss]

I know Jackone is doing his best, but I am getting a bit fed up with the roller coast weather predictions.

The chart I would like to see is % correct forcast against days, eg 1 day in advance you would expect a very high figure and 10 days a very low figure. The % correct figure must somehow eliminate chance, eg if you forcast rain every day then you will be 50% right overall

From my experiece the zero correct seems to come very soon after 5 days.

Sorry to be so serious but I really am fed up with flip flop weather forcasts.

How big is the met office latest lucky strike computer, I am sure I heard a football pitch mentioned the other week.

Forcast for my mood is remaing low this weekend in the east but very high levels of excitement building in the west next week. At least I know that is correct, what ever the weather.

[al_coholic]

I am looking at Met Check right now and the forecast is perfect festival weather and no rain for days. Where is all this negativity coming from

[Cooter]

I know Jackone is doing his best, but I am getting a bit fed up with the roller coast weather predictions.

The chart I would like to see is % correct forcast against days, eg 1 day in advance you would expect a very high figure and 10 days a very low figure. The % correct figure must somehow eliminate chance, eg if you forcast rain every day then you will be 50% right overall

From my experiece the zero correct seems to come very soon after 5 days.

[nidz]

I met Jackones cousin the other day, and he said Jackone was shite at darts, but could skin up with one hand. He also said he was more O Drama than Obama.

That is all.

[kloot]

On the subject of outliers heres a classic example:

The graph at the bottom represent rainfall totals and if you notice the lime green line is the one that is shown as the operational. As you can see, there is virtually no support from any other 21 permutations so those high amounts of rainfall are looking highly unlikely over the saturday and sunday. Theres still a chance of some rain, don't get me wrong, but i reckon it's going to be in the form of showers which might be hit and miss anyway.

I'm getting the feeling if JACKONE had access to these ensembles when he made the forecast he would of rated it back up to an 8!

Looks almost nailed on for temps to get up in the mid 20's and some really nice conditions up until friday at the very least!

[Cooter]

I am looking at Met Check right now and the forecast is perfect festival weather and no rain for days. Where is all this negativity coming from

[Sam Crawley]

The chart I would like to see is % correct forcast against days, eg 1 day in advance you would expect a very high figure and 10 days a very low figure.

[Aragorn]

the 12z ans 18z tuesday will give a very good indication of what is in store

[Superfly1967]

It can snow for the rest of the year as far as I'm concerned

[Glastonbury_2011]

Hey, why there's no love shown for JACKONE. The guys in this thread and on netweather are just doing thier best to forecast. It won't be their fault if rain is on the way.

[sunnyshoes]

Im being extra nice to people to build up some karma points (tho know it doesnt work exactly like that) - making lots of brews and letting other lovely, oh so patient drivers out of junctions and not even calling them bad names when they dont say thanks. Im also doing cosmicology whatnots and asking the universe for no rain please. if everyone does it then its got to work.

[kohoutec]

I met Jackones cousin the other day, and he said Jackone was shite at darts, but could skin up with one hand. He also said he was more O Drama than Obama.

That is all.