WEATHER 2009 !

[William of Walworth]

Thanks sinhala ...

Steve and JACKONE are your men for forecasts IMO. JACKONE's latest (from yesterday evening) was a tad more pessimistic in parts than Steve's, which is more recent anyway. But all that goes to show is not that forecasters know nothing and can only guess (as some ignoramuses proclaim! ) but instead, that few forecasters can predict with certainty what exactly will happen over a week away from now.

For now I'm gambling, and it is a gamble, on the suggested Low Pressure incursion proving to be a not very damp squib.

This is my last day with access to efests (although I may be able to view, albeit not post, through paolo999's minigadgetry)

The main reason for my optimism-inclined gamble is that with us heading off to Somerset tomorrow, I want to leave the online multiverse with a POSITIVE VIBE.

It seems nearly certain that the bulk of next week, Monday to Friday, will be dominated by warmth and sunshine, some forecasts even maintain that midweek we could see 25C or 26C in the SW. GFS (as interpreted by Metcheck's computers) tend to undercoook summer temps which is why they seem only to be hovering arund 19C or 20C at the moment in their forecasts. But remember that in reality, at this time of the year, near the longest day and with the sun high in the sky, the synoptics for next week, with lightish Easterly or North Easterly wionds heading for the South of England from a pretty warm Continent, a 25C could easily be attainable at least at the start of the Fest, and maybe higher.

What happens beyond Friday 26th is still VERY MUCH in the hands of the ever altering Synoptic Gods. A slight alteration/improvement in detail/positioning could make ALL the difference and we won't even approach anything like certainty til early next week

So yes bring hats and sunscreen and summer clothes for at least the start. I have a big straw hat!

But bring waterproofs and welllies/boots too, it's only sensible, because there's obviously still a risk of showers/MAYBE rain next weekend for sure. Even if the waterproofs/boots only end up being lucky amulets and not needed.

Have a goodun all ....

Edited June 19, 2009 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

PS

Comment added by Frosty039 on Netweather Model Output Discussion thread a mere two or three minutes ago ...

Excellent model output suggests next week will be filled with strong sunshine and high temps, as far as i'm concerned the awful memory of last summer is fading fast with much more summery patterns emerging and northern blocking setting in for some considerable time by the look of it. The ECM 00z offers many glorious warm sunny days ahead!!

Edited June 19, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Magma]

Have a great fest William. I'll try and pop along to say hello at the Other Stage Info Point! Keep those weatherfingers crossed and we'll all be fine!

[shazbam]

Willam thanks for all teh fab advise for this year - you have kept me sane thoughout the last few weeks, I to know that it will be a sunny and fantastic fest. Once again thanks for all the time and effor you have put in to this thred.

[parsonjack]

Cheers William! Have a safe trip now!

[podge52]

This is starting to get me down now.

Everyone at work here seems to think we're in for a heatwave, but every time I come on here the forecast is slightly worse.

Come on weather. Sort your act out.

[sdaveak47]

anyone else not taking wellies ?

[chimpy]

I made that mistake in 2005 after a rather amazing forecast, never again!!!!

[Peevis]

I decided what I want is a gorgeous and sunny weekend, with a huge but brief electric thunderstorm on sunday evening, followed by a dry night and monday morning. Maybe a wetish monday, just after I've packed up my dry tent to help me deal with leaving.

If the people at the Met office would sort that, I'd be very grateful!

[parsonjack]

All this is doing my head in which forecast do we trust ? None i say. I've read 5 different forecasts for the coming 7 days and no two are the same. It's a dam good job we don't have to depend on weather forecasts to organise our lives, cos if we did we'd be proper F*****. f**k all would ever get done. How can so many forecasts be so different. I'll tell you how cos the peeps that do it aint got a clue they've created jobs for their selves and the software and models they use are just that models. The weather does what it does and Micheal F****** Fish should get a job as a lollipop man. The reason being he'd be more useful doing that then trying to tell us what the weather is or isn't going to be.

So in summary pack for all eventualities ignore the forecasts and lets enjoy what we are given no matter what it is.

[mario man]

William, as always I've thoroughly enjoyed reading your weather musings over the past year, have a superb festival. Will wave if we're passing the info point

[William of Walworth]

Just on my way out (and to check oneor two other threads on here before heading off).

BUT -- thanks for those positive vibes and good wishes folks

[parsonjack]

anyone else not taking wellies ?

[Ed209]

Has anyone actually seen a bad weather forecast anywhere?

Everything i've looked at is showing dry and sunny!

[kloot]

you're somewhat missing the point of the weather thread....

[ding dong]

Just on my way out (and to check oneor two other threads on here before heading off).

BUT -- thanks for those positive vibes and good wishes folks

[remote]

Just another one to say thanks to William, mainly for writing in a language that we understand when it comes to the weather.

[kohoutec]

Yep, have a great festival WoW. I may swing round the info point at some point to say hello...

[redmuz]

*mildly OT*

do you know what i'd like? some Glasto Weather Thread Magnetic Poetry for my fridge. i reckon that would be ACE!

synoptic outlier 12hz Azores Monsoon wellies scorcher mud 2007 amazing hell ensembles metcheck electric party pilton sit down grass Eavis factor 25 dry missing rain point boggy flip-flop optimist washout terror JACKONE runs 18hz 6hz FI........(etc)

i might make some.......

[Glastonbury_2011]

Cheers William. Always look forward to your posts in this thread. You are the weather King.

[spammachine]

synoptic outlier 12hz Azores Monsoon wellies scorcher mud 2007 amazing hell ensembles metcheck electric party pilton sit down grass Eavis factor 25 dry missing rain point boggy flip-flop optimist washout terror JACKONE runs 18hz 6hz FI........(etc)

Edited June 19, 2009 by spammachine

[Mardy]

Enjoy it WoW, hope you have a great time. You've been an absolute legend on this thread.

and with that, I'm off too, time to go to the airport, get back to the UK and down to Somerset. Marvellous.

[mjs]

Nearly All Weather site location forecasts are driven by model input data- this includes Net weather, Metcheck, Accuweather, Weather underground, Intel.............. & so on....

You physically couldnt have a forecaster doing forecasts at that local level- it would take to long-

A slightly better run on overnight from ECMWF, still the risk of those easterly winds, although the 'squeeze' from the south does look a little weaker- which will enhance the warmer 'feeling'-

Also less pronounced will be the Showery zones- the SW may end up in the void of nothing- which will be good, as it would then almost certainly default to dry & sunny-

A better day overall- back to 7.5/10 75% conf.....

S

[Nicky Of The Living Dead]

anyone else not taking wellies ?

[lisa93]

just as I scrolled down to see WoW's big sun, seth lakeman came on my spotify singing "setting of the sun" that's it, I'm now convinced!