The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

that's a view. You're at least recognising there's competing pressures.

And I don't think it's impossible that some time in the future that view will win out, but I strongly suspect in the shorter term there'll be a more balanced approach.

I don't think anyone is claiming otherwise.

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Particularly as land-based wind turbines are much cheaper, and Scotland still has plenty of space where those might be sited, and over a big enough land mass where weather conditions will vary (to cover a better amount of any slack periods than can be achieved in a small space).

They'll be a place for tidal because the generation is certain, but various factors will mean the roll out in the short term isn't going to be massively ambitious.

Again, I don't disagree with this. Although it's reasonable to assume that tidal power will become cheaper over time as the technology is developed & improved & economies of scale kick in.

18 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

(something we're going to quickly hit is a much bigger need for 'leccy, as cars switch from petrol/diesel - and there's not much attention being paid to that at the moment because no one really knows what the demands will be and at what times).

I also agree with this.

[Comfy Bean]

15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

(something we're going to quickly hit is a much bigger need for 'leccy, as cars switch from petrol/diesel - and there's not much attention being paid to that at the moment because no one really knows what the demands will be and at what times).

There is a bit of attention being paid to this by SG. I`l`ll link to an article from 4 days ago.

To be clear, nobody here seems to be saying that our future is secured and I think LJS introduced this convo with a heavy caveat.

Your talk of bagpipes and tartan and anti englishness just feels like a distraction to the discussion.

I would guess that shipping was a concern before the first oil rigs were built and all that pesky land didn`t stop Noah !

If we accept that technology is in it`s infancy then surely we can agree it will improve and become more cost effective and efficient . Scotland is blessed with natural resources and with the right investment "could " become world leaders in this area and create jobs and electricity. Our man Patrick Harvie talks of modest progress. I`d go with that.

Nicola Sturgeon’s programme for government has been hailed as “ambitious and progressive” by environmental groups.

Gina Hanrahan of WWF Scotland welcomed plans to phase out new fossil fuel cars and vans by 2032, eight years before the rest of the UK, and to expand electric charging infrastructure between now and 2022 in both rural and urban areas. She said: “The First Minister has set out an ambitious, progressive and green Programme for Government, which puts Scotland’s low carbon economy in the driving seat. “Decarbonising our transport sector in fifteen years will create new jobs, cut emissions and clean up our polluted air. This announcement will help accelerate the shift to electric vehicles and sets us up to lead the technologies of the future.”

Friends of the Earth Scotland Director Dr Richard Dixon said: “The Scottish Government has put improving and protecting the environment at the heart of their legislative and policy programme.

Read more at: http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland-to-phase-out-petrol-and-diesel-vehicles-by-2032-1-4551797
 

[Comfy Bean]

On 9/1/2017 at 7:57 AM, LJS said:

A wee update on something we've discussed before on here...

Scottish tidal power station breaks world record for electricity generation

...The tidal flows between the Atlantic and the North Sea could potentially power nearly half of Scotland’s entire electricity needs, according to a study by engineers from Oxford and Edinburgh universities...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pentland-firth-tidal-power-station-electricity-generation-energy-renewables-a7922141.html?amp

Please note, I am aware that this technology is still in its early stages, cost is not mentioned in the article and I am not claiming that the tides will dissolve Neil's £umpteen Bn deficit gap 

Good news though eh?

 

Yes 

[eFestivals]

 

9 minutes ago, Comfy Bean said:

There is a bit of attention being paid to this by SG. I`l`ll link to an article from 4 days ago.

PMSL - you've just proved what I said, because you were too keen to prove me wrong to actually understand what I said.

I said no one was paying attention to the extra needs for leccy as a result of moving to electric vehicles.

Sturgeon has announced an X-amount increase in electricity demand for Scotland, but hasn't announced anything for how that extra demand will be met.

(it's a crock of shit announcement anyway. it ain';t her that's in the driving seat for whether the switch to leccy happens by then or not, it's joe-public, and it's global happenings, waaaay before any influence from her for something she won't be around to deliver anyway).

[Comfy Bean]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

 

PMSL - you've just proved what I said, because you were too keen to prove me wrong to actually understand what I said.

I said no one was paying attention to the extra needs for leccy as a result of moving to electric vehicles.

Sturgeon has announced an X-amount increase in electricity demand for Scotland, but hasn't announced anything for how that extra demand will be met.

(it's a crock of shit announcement anyway. it ain';t her that's in the driving seat for whether the switch to leccy happens by then or not, it's joe-public, and it's global happenings, waaaay before any influence from her for something she won't be around to deliver anyway).

I have no need or interest in proving you wrong. 

These include expanding the charging network and making the A9 Scotland’s first electric-enabled highway.

A fund of £60 million will be made available to accelerate innovation in new technologies, including low carbon and digital projects.

It will support the development of low carbon energy infrastructure, such as electricity battery storage, sustainable heating systems and electric vehicle charging.

[Comfy Bean]

2 days ago.......

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said: “I want us to be world leaders in developing new low carbon energy technologies and embrace social changes that will reduce our emissions.

“We have set out a bold new ambition on ultra-low emission vehicles, including electric cars and vans, with a target to phase out the need for petrol and diesel vehicles by 2032, underpinned by a range of actions to expand the charging network, support innovative approaches and encourage the public sector to lead the way.”

[Comfy Bean]

9 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

 

PMSL - you've just proved what I said, because you were too keen to prove me wrong to actually understand what I said.

I said no one was paying attention to the extra needs for leccy as a result of moving to electric vehicles.

 

" expand the charging network "

Edited September 9, 2017 by Comfy Bean

[LJS]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

my understanding of every project I've looked into in any depth has been as I said. I've not looked at Meygen that way to know.

Do you have a source for what you're saying?

"Each turbine is installed on the seabed with a gravity-base turbine support structure and a 4.4kV turbine subsea cable.

...

Each turbine will have its own export shore to shore. The buried cables will be brought to shore through horizontal directional drilled (HDD) bores dug in the bedrock and connected to the power conversion centre (PCC). The marine power generated will be exported onshore for transmission to the National Grid to be distributed to approximately42,000 homes in Scotland.

The PCC will include a control building, three power conversion unit buildings (PCUBs) measuring 45m-long, 30m-wide and 13m-high, and feature power conversion equipment, switchgear and transformers."

http://www.power-technology.com/projects/pentland-firth-tidal-power-plant-scotland/

[eFestivals]

22 hours ago, Comfy Bean said:

I have no need or interest in proving you wrong. 

These include expanding the charging network and making the A9 Scotland’s first electric-enabled highway.

A fund of £60 million will be made available to accelerate innovation in new technologies, including low carbon and digital projects.

It will support the development of low carbon energy infrastructure, such as electricity battery storage, sustainable heating systems and electric vehicle charging.

You have no ability or sources with which to prove me wrong. Fucks sake. :lol:

What you've presented is nothing of any extra generating capacity to account for the extra demand that electric cars will cause.

 

[eFestivals]

21 hours ago, LJS said:

"Each turbine is installed on the seabed with a gravity-base turbine support structure and a 4.4kV turbine subsea cable.

Thanks. And fair enough for not blocked, then.

Want to try the maths?

[LJS]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

You have no ability or sources with which to prove me wrong. Fucks sake.

What you've presented is nothing of any extra generating capacity to account for the extra demand that electric cars will cause.

 

We've got it already.

"Scotland continued to be a net exporter of electricity, exporting 29 per cent of all electricity generation in 2015.

Power generated here made up approximately 26 per cent of the total UK renewable output in 2015."

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.scotsman.com/news/environment/nearly-60-of-scottish-electricity-consumption-from-renewables-1-4324058/amp

[eFestivals]

22 hours ago, Comfy Bean said:

" expand the charging network "

what about expanding generation capacity in order to serve the new needs of that network?

No one has any plans!!!

All of the current new generation plans are for replacement (and the normal small expansion) of current generation needs. Electric cars will cause a massive increase in need for electricity.

No one really knows what those needs will be, because the current leccy car use is too small to measure against the 'normal' electricity use, and while it's known how public charge points are used, that's only a small part of how the cars are charged.

[LJS]

7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Thanks. And fair enough for not blocked, then.

Want to try the maths?

What maths, Neil? 

Is this your maths that says if we keep on installing exactly the same turbines and they all have exactly the same output, we'll need 1200 of them?

I've no doubt your maths is correct. I'm not quite sure what the point is though.

There are lots of obstacles which mean realising the penguins firth's full potential probably won't happen. The mistake you make is in thinking they are all offshore.

 

[eFestivals]

Just now, LJS said:

We've got it already.

Firstly, I'll point out that both you and comfy have claimed in the past that an indy Scotland would be OK financially in-part because it would be selling it's leccy surplus to the UK ... but now you've just fucked that.

It's not surplus. It's part of the national grid needs. Are you really believing that Scotland is going to say "fuck you, it's ours" to the rest of the UK - a UK that has paid for that infrastructure to a massive degree (rather than Scotland)?

It can try. It would be a poor decision if it did. You could scrap the Pentland Firth plans for starters, cos you'd have just lost the funds for it.

Meanwhile, can you put down your saltaire and realise what I said wasn't a dig at Scotland, it was simply a statement of fact? It's the UK govt who has oversight of managing future leccy needs.

[eFestivals]

Just now, LJS said:

I've no doubt your maths is correct. I'm not quite sure what the point is though.

If my maths is correct and you've no doubt about it, why the pointless rant that you labelled as 1 in your stupid list?

If you've no doubt, it's you without the point.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, LJS said:

The mistake you make is in thinking they are all offshore.

the environmentalists who get in the way of full potential are very much onshore. As is the money to provide the subsidies.

Your mistake is thinking I had a mistake.

[LJS]

24 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

If my maths is correct and you've no doubt about it, why the pointless rant that you labelled as 1 in your stupid list?

If you've no doubt, it's you without the point.

It's not the maths that's the problem, its the assumptions behind the maths and the irrelevance of the answer.

Your figure of 1200 is based on the assumption that all 1200 turbines will have the same output as the current ones. Even within the current proposals from Maygen there are plans to use different types & sizes of Turbines. The next phase is to install a further 6 turbines

"This next phase of the MeyGen site development is an important step in demonstrating progress to a lower cost of energy for tidal stream.  Project Stroma will include larger diameter rotors to capture more energy from the tidal flow, as well as optimised turbine power ratings. "

So its perfectly possible that the figure would  be less than 1200 and indeed it would be pretty astonishing if a technology as new as this didn't get more efficient as they learn from experience.

But lets just say it would take 1200 turbines & lets just say we upgrade the grid so that the power generated can get to where people are making their tea & toast & charging their cars, what's the problem? There's no danger to shipping because its all underwater. there are virtually no environmental objections (at least to the offshore part) 

https://www.atlantisresourcesltd.com/2016/12/15/investment-decision-project-stroma-meygen-phase-1b/ 

[eFestivals]

43 minutes ago, LJS said:

what's the problem?

nowt, apart from how it's getting overplayed. 

[LJS]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

nowt, apart from how it's getting overplayed. 

Not by anyone on here it isn't. 

Just for clarity, I do not believe that the Pentland Firth will, at any time in the foreseeable future be producing anything close to half of Scotland's electricity supply. 

If it gets to 25% in 20 years that would be a great achievement. 33% would be astonishing.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, LJS said:

Not by anyone on here it isn't. 

Just for clarity, I do not believe that the Pentland Firth will, at any time in the foreseeable future be producing anything close to half of Scotland's electricity supply. 

If it gets to 25% in 20 years that would be a great achievement. 33% would be astonishing.

I find those quite realistic.

Which makes the article you chose to present a bit pointless in real terms.

I've got the potential to be a billionaire, but I'm probably not going to be.

[LJS]

19 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I find those quite realistic.

Which makes the article you chose to present a bit pointless in real terms.

No it's not, it's reasonable to assume that for a number of reasons, the full potential of most resources will not be realised. That does not make it pointless to know what that potential is.

19 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I've got the potential to be a billionaire, but I'm probably not going to be.

just believe, Neil.

 

[LJS]

Apparently the Sunday times has a Scottish opinion poll - the first for ages.

According to everyone's favourite cleric voting intentions are:

SNP: 42%

Tory Scum: 28%

Scottish Labour: 22%

Which demonstrates that quoting sub samples of UK wide polls is a good way to look foolish.

Indy is Yes: 43, No: 57 

[LJS]

Is the McTory Spring over?

 

 

[eFestivals]

15 hours ago, LJS said:

Is the McTory Spring over?

some people get a mid-term slump while others get a midterm boost but it often means nothing for how people really vote next time.

 

[Comfy Bean]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

some people get a mid-term slump while others get a midterm boost but it often means nothing for how people really vote next time.

 

Cheer up Neil, it might be a blip as you say :-)

Or ....the Tories support around their policies and priorities up here puts them way behind Labour and the SNP ?

Their main / only policy around being wrapped in a flag remains popular of course and sadly can still be rallied if and when required.

If we had Indy it could be a straight fight between Labour and the SNP with the Tories getting Ukip style numbers up here.

Who knows but after the first election that the Snp would likely win, Labour could be looking at years in power with Ruth looking for a job down your way.

The dream will never die :-)