Ticket queing

[This_Fields_Good]

9 minutes ago, Agis said:

I think the system is flawed but the best of a bad lot as it does seem to encourage extra effort on behalf of those who are actually successful and therefore I guess ensures a festival full of people who care about being there and are excited by the prospect of it.

 

With regard to numbers if there are 2.3-2.5 million registrations and assuming that ALL of them try to get tickets (which is obviously not the case but..) then with 210,000 tickets (approx?) you have a 1 in 10ish chance of getting a ticket? If you are in a group of 6 then that increase 6 fold?

 

Does that therefore mean that in a group of 6 you have a circa 60% chance of being successful? 

 

Pretty good odds if so.

Sadly, I think you have some flawed logic here.
Firstly, there are only around 135,000 GA tickets; the 200,000+ number includes all workers, support staff, their entourage, and all other persons on-site.

And the 10% x 6 = 60% cannot work, otherwise a group of 12 would have 120% success, and even football pundits don't overegg the stats to that level !

Also, if the number of registration is, say, 2.5 million, the crude calculation does not work, because you could have an indefinite number of people trying to buy tickets based on a single (or small number) of registrations.  e.g. I could have 200 people helping me and 5 mates get a single booking of 6 tickets.  And that would massively skew our odds...

...now where do I find 194 honest altruistic helpers for next year's ticket day ? 😉  Don't all rush at once !

[DeanoL]

Yeah if each individual has a 1/10 chance to get through then a group of six with everyone trying will have a 1 - (9/10^6) chance or 47%

[Agis]

56 minutes ago, This_Fields_Good said:

Sadly, I think you have some flawed logic here.
Firstly, there are only around 135,000 GA tickets; the 200,000+ number includes all workers, support staff, their entourage, and all other persons on-site.

And the 10% x 6 = 60% cannot work, otherwise a group of 12 would have 120% success, and even football pundits don't overegg the stats to that level !

Also, if the number of registration is, say, 2.5 million, the crude calculation does not work, because you could have an indefinite number of people trying to buy tickets based on a single (or small number) of registrations.  e.g. I could have 200 people helping me and 5 mates get a single booking of 6 tickets.  And that would massively skew our odds...

...now where do I find 194 honest altruistic helpers for next year's ticket day ? 😉  Don't all rush at once !

 

Aah starting to get clearer on the numbers. But if you take out the multiple groups trying to get tickets for one single registration what are the percentages? Say 2.5 million registrations and 135,000 actual paying tickets available with 6 people in a group? What are the chances then?

[This_Fields_Good]

Based on that simplification, I make it 28.3% for the group of 6, or around one festival in four.
Don't think I like those odds !

[Lycra]

3 hours ago, Nice hymer said:

 

 

I was reading somewhere (might even have been here) that Liverpool has some large scale operations going on, which is why they are so well represented at the festival

 

 

 

 

Nothing succeeds more than heresay, rumour and gossip

[incident]

1 hour ago, This_Fields_Good said:

Now I'm no expert on bots, or modern (purported) techniques to game the ticket system, so please don't shoot me down for inaccuracies, but...
My understanding of bots is of computer apps on networks, NOT people.
And it is not so much an increase in browsers that is needed, but increased IP Addresses to improve your chances.

Your understanding is correct on both counts.

[NotAnInsider]

I don't think there are anywhere near 2.5 million attempting to get tickets; maybe 500k at most and probably not even that.

 

Loads of people have multiple registrations, are on site in another capacity, don't want to go that year, can't go that year etc etc. I can see them having 2.5 million seemingly distinct users in google analytics trying and get on the booking site, but when you think how many different browser windows people have open the number of actual individuals ticket buyers tumbles pretty rapidly.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the average number of browser sessions per actual genuine applicant averages out somewhere between 5 and 10, given how almost nobody just has one and some very committed people might have 20 or more across their friends and helpers. 

 

If that number is 7.5 windows per actual user (on average) that works out at a roughly 1/3 chance of getting tickets all things being fair. That feels about right; big groups manage it year on year by force and there is still a reasonable chance of an individual getting in.

[Rex2]

24 minutes ago, NotAnInsider said:

I don't think there are anywhere near 2.5 million attempting to get tickets; maybe 500k at most and probably not even that.

 

Loads of people have multiple registrations, are on site in another capacity, don't want to go that year, can't go that year etc etc. I can see them having 2.5 million seemingly distinct users in google analytics trying and get on the booking site, but when you think how many different browser windows people have open the number of actual individuals ticket buyers tumbles pretty rapidly.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the average number of browser sessions per actual genuine applicant averages out somewhere between 5 and 10, given how almost nobody just has one and some very committed people might have 20 or more across their friends and helpers. 

 

If that number is 7.5 windows per actual user (on average) that works out at a roughly 1/3 chance of getting tickets all things being fair. That feels about right; big groups manage it year on year by force and there is still a reasonable chance of an individual getting in.

That doesn't tally up. I've been in a huge group but missed out last 2 years despite attempting every sale, as has everyone else.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Rex2 said:

That doesn't tally up. I've been in a huge group but missed out last 2 years despite attempting every sale, as has everyone else.

the large groups really come off if people start to get in early , if nobody does the impact is reduced unless you have a large number of people behind your individual group ..... we did well in the initial sale because we got a load in early . Not so well on the resale as hoped as I think from memory only 1 team got in in early stages 

[Rex2]

Ah so essentially get everyone to start refreshing couple of minutes before the sale then?

[BigMarv]

The current system is fine, shouldn’t be changed, sells out each year.

 

The current system doesn’t benefit people holding multiple registrations, a ballot would.

 

Policing it would be impossible.

 

There is always a way.

[NotAnInsider]

23 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

That doesn't tally up. I've been in a huge group but missed out last 2 years despite attempting every sale, as has everyone else.

all being fair it would be a 1/3 chance.. but it isn’t fair.
 

The key isn’t number of people in the group but number of browser sessions and refreshes. One person with 8 sessions across multiple browsers refreshing each every 10

seconds has the same number of goes as 16 people with one browser each on the 20 sec countdown. 
 

now think that there will be groups out there with 16 people with 8 windows each refreshing every second it all starts to get silly… but that’s what we are dealing with.

 

also worth remembering that November wasn’t a normal sale with an unknown number of tickets going to the hosts exploit. 

[Rex2]

Is it not just as effective to refresh on one browser every second which I presume most people do?

[Beerqueen]

1 hour ago, NotAnInsider said:

also worth remembering that November wasn’t a normal sale with an unknown number of tickets going to the hosts exploit. 

 

Can you tell me exactly what it was as I just assumed that this was bollocks (and can't remember what the story was now?)

[NotAnInsider]

13 hours ago, Rex2 said:

Is it not just as effective to refresh on one browser every second which I presume most people do?

 

It's more effective than not refreshing, but less that more windows more of the time. There are limits to how many times you can refresh before being blocked, but that only applies per browser. So multiple browsers = more refreshes = more chances. More connects, more devices, more betterer.

 

12 hours ago, Beerqueen said:

 

Can you tell me exactly what it was as I just assumed that this was bollocks (and can't remember what the story was now?)

In simple terms when you go to Glastonbury.seetickets.com it directs you to a sever that sells tickets. However, it didn't direct people to all the severs they had - there were other servers capable of selling tickets that weren't in use for whatever reason (spares incase of failure, used for something else - whatever).

 

People worked out that you could modify the hosts file on your computer to force your browser to load Glastonbury.seetickets.com on one of these unused 'spare' servers which didn't have much traffic going to them so just gave you the form straight away with no countdown page.

 

It seems the exploit had existed for a while; there were definitely reports & screen shots of people paying for 'guaranteed' tickets last year and it seems this is how they, and some of the big syndicates, were seeing such success.

 

If you try and do the same trick now you get a forbidden message so it's patched.

[Physical_graffiti]

17 hours ago, Nice hymer said:

Is demand still increasing? From what I've seen, registration numbers appear to have topped out at around 2.4-2.5m.

 

With the festival increasing capacity, you could argue that there's falling demand per ticket.

 

I haven't knocked up spreadsheets or anything but from the figures I've seen in the press, demand per ticket appears to be pretty consistent over the last decade (registrations increasing, capacity increasing).

Just going on pure anecdotal stories and my own half formed observations/bollocks, the last 2 years being all timers (weather + big headliners) has done nothing to help reduce demand. Last 2 ticket sales have certainly been the hardest for my extended group - gone from consistent 100% success rate in the mid-2010s to only a minority now managing.

 

I suppose once you go to glasto once, you probably want to go every year from then on. Probably more of these people each year than old timers who decide to 'retire'.

 

Basically we need a few years in a row of complete stinkers, who's in?!

[The Orgazoid]

13 hours ago, Beerqueen said:

 

Can you tell me exactly what it was as I just assumed that this was bollocks (and can't remember what the story was now?)

It was very much not bollocks. in laymans terms it was possible to point your browser direct to the server selling tickets, and do this multiple times, almost as many times as you wanted to if you knew how. it was probably around for a while, but seeped into the mainstream in November via Tik Tok instagram etc, so was widely used. I know of people who got upwards of 80 tickets. I didn't use the hack as I also dismissed it as bollocks at the time, but I unknowingly ended up getting my ticket through a mate who used it and got tickets for 5 groups using it.

 

The end result was if you didn't know the hack, you were fishing from a much smaller pool of tickets than usual, and even though the sale went on for an hour, your chances of getting through during that hour were greatly diminshed. 

 

 

[Beerqueen]

11 minutes ago, The Orgazoid said:

It was very much not bollocks. in laymans terms it was possible to point your browser direct to the server selling tickets, and do this multiple times, almost as many times as you wanted to if you knew how. it was probably around for a while, but seeped into the mainstream in November via Tik Tok instagram etc, so was widely used. I know of people who got upwards of 80 tickets. I didn't use the hack as I also dismissed it as bollocks at the time, but I unknowingly ended up getting my ticket through a mate who used it and got tickets for 5 groups using it.

 

The end result was if you didn't know the hack, you were fishing from a much smaller pool of tickets than usual, and even though the sale went on for an hour, your chances of getting through during that hour were greatly diminshed. 

 

 

Thanks.  I do remember now but I wasn't sure if it was the usual conspiracy theories that circulate when people don't get tickets.  Our group did well but not through this as I know it was different people who got through at different times.