news & politics:discussion

[pink_triangle]

In fairness the likes of Priti, JRM and Dorries have to throw their lot behind Boris. It is the only chance of them getting a ministerial job.

[Guest]

I think when JRM loses his seat it will be the happiest day of my life. 

[Guest]

 

[tigger123]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I think when JRM loses his seat it will be the happiest day of my life. 

Is he likely to should the tories not win the next election?

[Kurosagi]

7 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

I think when JRM loses his seat it will be the happiest day of my life. 

Is he likely to should the tories not win the next election?

Johnson losing his seat (very likely) would be top of my list, particularly if he becomes PM again.

But JRM would be close behind, he represents pretty much everything that is wrong with the tory party and their entitled attitude about being 'born to lead'.

With the current polling JRM would be swept away (along with most of the tory party), but we know that the polling figures at the moment are hugely inflated compared to what is likely to happen at a GE. See the 2019 results below...if the electorate *want* to get rid of him then a deal between LD/Lab would easily see him lose the seat, but if there's no tactical voting then he'll win easily.

[fraybentos1]

50 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

Johnson losing his seat (very likely) would be top of my list, particularly if he becomes PM again.

But JRM would be close behind, he represents pretty much everything that is wrong with the tory party and their entitled attitude about being 'born to lead'.

With the current polling JRM would be swept away (along with most of the tory party), but we know that the polling figures at the moment are hugely inflated compared to what is likely to happen at a GE. See the 2019 results below...if the electorate *want* to get rid of him then a deal between LD/Lab would easily see him lose the seat, but if there's no tactical voting then he'll win easily.

Tactical voting gonna be needed there. The only question is for Labour or Libs? Seems a more Lib Demy type seat but Labour will also want it given the national polls. Decent chance they split the vote and JRM sneaks in unfortunately.

[steviewevie]

 

[Guest]

Good to see there isn’t any unity there. 

[steviewevie]

Lord Frosty Frost backing Sunak...the twat.

[Kurosagi]

32 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Tactical voting gonna be needed there. The only question is for Labour or Libs? Seems a more Lib Demy type seat but Labour will also want it given the national polls. Decent chance they split the vote and JRM sneaks in unfortunately.

If Johnson becomes PM again (and I can't believe I had to type that), I strongly predict tactical voting on a scale that has never been known in this country; it will be armagideon time for the tory party.

 

[Crazyfool01]

Boris has 100 w*nkers now 

[Kurosagi]

Not 'officially', only 54 proper declarations:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t1MaeGTmOvmOOkUL8TDDJwqTTc-N1wmRxPeRe0k3yjM/edit#gid=400125858

Fully expect him to slither over the line though.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Kurosagi said:

Not 'officially', only 54 proper declarations:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t1MaeGTmOvmOOkUL8TDDJwqTTc-N1wmRxPeRe0k3yjM/edit#gid=400125858

Fully expect him to slither over the line though.

Bloody decieving news flash 

[Kurosagi]

By "campaign source" Mason means someone reading off of the Guido Fawkes spreadsheet, which has been repeatedly called out for inflating the numbers to boost the Johnson campaign. One mp even told them outright to take his name off of their list because he wasn't voting for Johnson!

[Guest]

It is possible he has that amount of backers though, the majority won’t come out publicly and Tory MPs are renowned for being morons.  

[Guest]

Equally it is Boris Johnson, renowned liar so he quite possibly is lying 😆 

[Crazyfool01]

22 minutes ago, Kurosagi said:

By "campaign source" Mason means someone reading off of the Guido Fawkes spreadsheet, which has been repeatedly called out for inflating the numbers to boost the Johnson campaign. One mp even told them outright to take his name off of their list because he wasn't voting for Johnson!

Yeah I saw that was utter crap that list .. just presumed the bbc hadn’t used that and they had a reliable list 

[Kurosagi]

Yes, easily. He's meeting the ERG group on monday apparently, so they'll probably wait until after the meeting before publicly declaring. There's at least another 30+ of them. He won't catch Sunak though in this round.

[Kurosagi]

It's BBC wanting to have their cake and eat it. They know the Smarkets list is the most reliable, but they want to have the clickbait drama stories of Johnson so are happy to turn a blind eye to the Guido nonsense list temporarily.

[Guest]

I reckon the ERG have backed him. 

[Kurosagi]

No shit.

The faded 'glory' of brexit is all he's got left.

[Kurosagi]

I'm distracting myself from the footy by reading this extended analysis of where we are with Brexit and how it has shaped the modern tory party:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2022/10/total-disarray.html

It's a long hard read, but a well referenced overview, would recommend it. This is one of the small glimmers of positivity:

In particular, perverse as it may seem, Truss has done us all a favour with her born-again Brexiter zealotry. For all its costs, having provoked a blow-out may prove to have been the quickest way of discrediting Brexitism and the libertarian, IEA version of Brexit. For Ian Dunt of the i the crisis marks “the end of the age of Brexit”, whilst in the FT Martin Wolf argues that, under Truss, “the Brexit Revolutionaries … over-reached” with the consequence that “maybe, the cold water of economic and political reality is at last breaking the UK’s Brexit fever”. Similarly, Annette Dittert, London Bureau Chief of Germany’s ARD TV, tentatively suggests that Truss’s failure could be the beginning of a turning point away from the “magical thinking” –  whatever the people want they get, so to speak  ­– about sovereignty which runs from the Brexit vote itself through the Johnson-Frost deal through to the mini-budget. She cautions, though, that the way back to pragmatism and realism will be via a long and painful process.

[Guest]

😂

[Kurosagi]

Continuing my football distraction Brexit theme:

It is so frustrating that Brexit is the narrative to which other countries interpret our current woes, but that we have a tory party that is destroying itself because of it and a Labour party that won't touch it with a barge pole and a public broadcaster that likes to pretend the mess has nothing to do with it.

Even if/when labour get in, on current evidence it seems unlikely that Starmer will do anything else but continue to "convincingly act baffled why it has been sinking ever since".

Not sure what the life raft looks like in Frum's analogy, is there one?

It's certainly not football given that Brighton can't win a game since Potter left (yes, I know, wrong thread).

[kaosmark2]

Johnson will get the support of the MPs he promises a cabinet position to.

That doesn't mean he'll only get the support of as many MPs as there are cabinet positions.