The Dirty Independence Question

[LJS]

(and we're back in that topsy-turvy world, where facts are bluster and blind faith is fact. )

Yep, it is!

The SNP have been caught red handed planning further NHS cuts while lying that they'll protect the budgets.

What was that line that Salmond said about not cutting the NHS in the 2nd debate?

I forget what it really was, but perhaps it should have been "you can hang me from a lamp post if I cut the NHS".

The leaked document looks a thousand other leaked documents where people spending public money complain they haven't got enough & would like some more. there is absolutely nothing in it to suggest this is a planned cut. If you think it is news that it is tough to prioritise spending in Health where the costs of providing services constantly outstrips inflation, then I think you are a wee bit less in touch with the real world than you care to believe.

You have to ask what would have happened if this had not been leaked? There would have been further meetings and no doubt a compromise would have been reached. The Scottish Gov would have found a wee bit more money from somewhere and the health boards would have found a few minor savings. It's the way these things work.

And funnily enough it is one area that is not much different either side of the border.

[LJS]

Yep - he has.

When he says "We've protected Scotland's NHS from the Tories' cuts", what he really means - because it's the truth - is that the tories haven't cut a penny from the NHS budgets, while the SNP have been cutting the NHS budgets.

But Scotland is a topsy-turvy world, where facts are bluster and blind faith is fact.

link for the NHS cuts please

Edited September 16, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

I agree with all of this mate. All I would add is that I reckon when he handed the job to Scottish Labour he would not have bargained for the complete arse they would make of it. I have agreed with you in the past about it being difficult to make a " positive " case for saying NO and that the onus was all on the YES campaign to " sell " it but when the dust settles the Better Together campaign will forever be held up as how NOT to do it.

I wouldn't normally disagree with you Comfy (as you know) but here is what a Yes blogger thought darling should have said at one of the debates. Ironically it is better & more convincing than anything the no side have come up with

"We stand here in Glasgow tonight, some 300 years after the commissioners of Scotland and England gathered, to forge the Union which we now call home. As history has taught us, it was a marriage not of love perhaps, but as our Union has gained wrinkles and generations, our people prospering and weathering hard times together, that love has grown. We have become a family. We may not always agree - few families do - but we stand by one another, through thick and thin.

Ours is a complex history, marked by its glories and its disgraces, its black days and its quiet successes. Much has changed since Britain painted the map red, much for the better. The past shrinks from us, but all around us, we see its inheritances. Together, we built the National Health Service, devoted to the principle that nobody - nobody - should be abandoned alone to the scourge of ill-health. I will defend that principle to my last breath. If we turn our eyes upwards, in the great cities of this country, we see the wages of Empire in bricks and mortar, often unjustly gained, but a permanent, standing reminder of our past. We should not try - we cannot - avoid or ignore our shared history. But we can always do better. Tomorrow, and the day after, we must always strive to do better.

I understand, many of us are not happy with the status quo. I am not happy with the status quo. But we can do better, not just for Scotland, but for all of the people in these islands. Many Scots want more self-government within the Union, want to take more of the big choices about their lives. I share that conviction, and will strive with every sinew of my being to ensure that the parliament of this country has the powers it needs to transform this country for the better. To foster work - good jobs - for our struggling children, who have suffered more than anyone in these hard times. To end the scourge of poverty. To clear the shelves and slam shut the foodbank door, and ensure that every family, every child in this country, can sleep soundly, bellies full, in dignity.

The SNP say that Britain's ability to re-invent itself is spent. I can't share that pessimism. Devolution, human rights, democracy: our history shows us that united, we can change the world -- if there are people to fight for it. Scots: stand and fight with me. Fight for a better, more just, fairer Union. The project we begin together on the 18th of September can sweep this country, from coast to coast, transforming lives, blasting open the doors of opportunity, reshaping and remoulding this country into a more perfect union. As he speaks tonight, there is much in Alex Salmond's vision of independence which I agree with. Many are values that, as a Labour politician, I share. But what I cannot share is his pessimism, his lack of ambition for this country. I haven't given up on our friends and neighbours in England and Wales and Northern Ireland - and neither should you.

Many of you will look at Britain as you see it today and think, we are on the wrong path. I share your passions. Let us strive together, here. Let us win the greater victory, not only for people in Glasgow, but for ordinary people across this country, in Manchester, Cardiff, Belfast. We are a rich nation, our people industrious, trying to live well, making the best future possible for their children, and ensuring dignity in old age for all those who have worked hard for what they've got. Don't be pessimistic about that strength. This Union, this family of nations, this historic achievement: it is not lightly to be given away. I ask you to vote No, not for our past, but for our future. I ask you to vote No, not out of fear of independence, but out of ambition for what we can do together. Together, we can make this country better. It's time to link hands, not to say farewell. It's time to show faith in all of our citizens. Don't squander this opportunity. Vote No for a bolder future. Vote No for a Better Union."

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/carebear-unionism.html?m=1

[wee_insomniac]

Really interesting interviews on BBC 1... Biased no doubt.

[LJS]

Another poll due tonight. Think we are settled now around 52 / 48 NO

why the long face - both are well within margin of error - both are moving towards yes (compared with comparable polls from same companies) &

Martin Boon, director of polling company ICM, said the independence referendum could prove a "polling Waterloo" and become the industry's biggest embarrassment since 1992, when surveys predicted a narrow victory for Neil Kinnock in the days before his eventual defeat to John Major.

He told the BBC all the companies gauging public opinion in the run-up to Thursday's vote were hoping to "dodge a bullet".

The latest poll of polls, the average of the last six surveys, gives the No campaign a narrow 51 per cent to 49 per cent lead. It includes two polls which put Yes ahead.

Mr Boon's comments echo the private feelings of campaign insiders, who believe the vote could produce a much clearer margin of victory for either side than the polls suggest.

He told BBC Radio Four the unprecedented nature of the referendum and the reliance by most companies on relatively small online panels made the result difficult to predict.

He said: "We are dependent on a pot of people which is defined, but we don't know how big it is and in my view it won't be big enough. In that lies a real danger for the accuracy of the polls in advance of this referendum."

Asked if he would be surprised if the result did not reflect the poll findings, he said: "No. This referendum has the potential to be a polling Waterloo, the biggest since 1992 when the polls got it wrong.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/icm-director-boon-admits-a-polling-waterloo-is-possible.25336542

So basically , no one has any idea.

I can construct a scenario where the polls are underestimating the yes vote. you can also construct one where they are underestimating the no vote.

No one knows

apart from Betfair

[Comfy Bean]

Really interesting interviews on BBC 1... Biased no doubt.

Who for ?

Does anyone know what the wee smiley thing is for " struggling to keep a straight face " ?

[LJS]

Genuinely interested. It's easy to say they've done a terrible job, but harder to offer alternative strategies.

I think they have made the following mistakes

1: they have rubbished absolutely everything in the Yes proposals. That is not credible & people eventually switch off

2: they have overplayed the strong hands they have - currency has always been their strongest hand - but they blew it by not settling for "you won't get a currency union" & raising the stakes to "you can't use the pound" Whatever the truth of the first one, once we blew the second one out of the water it fatally undermined the first one.

3: They have come across as bullying & lecturing the Scottish people.

4: they have had nothing to counter the astonishing grassroots yes campaign. I'm not sure they could have done much about that but maybe if they had been able to make a more positive case they might have been able to get some sort of grassroots going.

5: they did this

6: They put George Fucking Galloway wearing a hat in front of 8,000 young voters

7: they invented UKOK -did no one look at it?

I could go on. this has been one of the easiest posts I have ever written

[Comfy Bean]

I wouldn't normally disagree with you Comfy (as you know) but here is what a Yes blogger thought darling should have said at one of the debates. Ironically it is better & more convincing than anything the no side have come up with

"We stand here in Glasgow tonight, some 300 years after the commissioners of Scotland and England gathered, to forge the Union which we now call home. As history has taught us, it was a marriage not of love perhaps, but as our Union has gained wrinkles and generations, our people prospering and weathering hard times together, that love has grown. We have become a family. We may not always agree - few families do - but we stand by one another, through thick and thin.

Ours is a complex history, marked by its glories and its disgraces, its black days and its quiet successes. Much has changed since Britain painted the map red, much for the better. The past shrinks from us, but all around us, we see its inheritances. Together, we built the National Health Service, devoted to the principle that nobody - nobody - should be abandoned alone to the scourge of ill-health. I will defend that principle to my last breath. If we turn our eyes upwards, in the great cities of this country, we see the wages of Empire in bricks and mortar, often unjustly gained, but a permanent, standing reminder of our past. We should not try - we cannot - avoid or ignore our shared history. But we can always do better. Tomorrow, and the day after, we must always strive to do better.

I understand, many of us are not happy with the status quo. I am not happy with the status quo. But we can do better, not just for Scotland, but for all of the people in these islands. Many Scots want more self-government within the Union, want to take more of the big choices about their lives. I share that conviction, and will strive with every sinew of my being to ensure that the parliament of this country has the powers it needs to transform this country for the better. To foster work - good jobs - for our struggling children, who have suffered more than anyone in these hard times. To end the scourge of poverty. To clear the shelves and slam shut the foodbank door, and ensure that every family, every child in this country, can sleep soundly, bellies full, in dignity.

The SNP say that Britain's ability to re-invent itself is spent. I can't share that pessimism. Devolution, human rights, democracy: our history shows us that united, we can change the world -- if there are people to fight for it. Scots: stand and fight with me. Fight for a better, more just, fairer Union. The project we begin together on the 18th of September can sweep this country, from coast to coast, transforming lives, blasting open the doors of opportunity, reshaping and remoulding this country into a more perfect union. As he speaks tonight, there is much in Alex Salmond's vision of independence which I agree with. Many are values that, as a Labour politician, I share. But what I cannot share is his pessimism, his lack of ambition for this country. I haven't given up on our friends and neighbours in England and Wales and Northern Ireland - and neither should you.

Many of you will look at Britain as you see it today and think, we are on the wrong path. I share your passions. Let us strive together, here. Let us win the greater victory, not only for people in Glasgow, but for ordinary people across this country, in Manchester, Cardiff, Belfast. We are a rich nation, our people industrious, trying to live well, making the best future possible for their children, and ensuring dignity in old age for all those who have worked hard for what they've got. Don't be pessimistic about that strength. This Union, this family of nations, this historic achievement: it is not lightly to be given away. I ask you to vote No, not for our past, but for our future. I ask you to vote No, not out of fear of independence, but out of ambition for what we can do together. Together, we can make this country better. It's time to link hands, not to say farewell. It's time to show faith in all of our citizens. Don't squander this opportunity. Vote No for a bolder future. Vote No for a Better Union."

http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/carebear-unionism.html?m=1

^^^^

There you go Stash ! This is pretty much what I was working on but LJS has beat me to it. This and get rid of the word no. Get rid of Darling and maybe even give it to that Alexander guy ( not Danny obviously ) as he always debated well and seems a bit of a blue at heart. May or may not be a millionaire as well. Maybe don`t wait till the voting has actually started before taking it seriously. Don`t get Dave up at the last minute twice and then have him speaking in a board room to an invited audience. Don`t make out as if Bankers are anybodys friend and don`t pretend that Russian troops are on our borders. Don`t call all the supermarkets to Downing street and get them to say that prices are going to go up when people are taking their kids to food banks and don`t act the goat over saying shops will have to change their name to Groatland on the Friday after the vote. Thats just off the top of my head-Oh and don`t bring Blair in and atleast try and get some of your supporters mobilised. With all the millionaires maybe a few car stickers etc.

Were you happy with their campaign ? I`m standing by my view that history will judge them as a shambles but look our for Darling in the lords.

[LJS]

wow survation, opinium & ICM all agreed on 52/48 for no

Let's have a competition

No Spin: only 2 days to go and it is clear no are ahead - never has there been such consitency amongst the pollsters.. no complacency etc

Yes spin: 2 days to go & it is clear that the momentum is with yes - three pollsters all showing swings to yes from their last poll. one last push & we are there...no complacency etc

Fuctifino

[Comfy Bean]

I forgot about the cat in the hat. Again LJS I raise MY hat to you sir. How are you bearing up mate ? We`ve had a fantastic run for our money. If not now then soon ! I suspect the data over the weekend will show that the more affluent areas eg the Borders and Aberdeen, plus the pensioner votes will leave us with a mountain to climb. Trying to get my head round the figures but I think we need Glasgow 60 /40. The fact I am even saying that about Glasgow with all its Labour voters is unbelievable. If Edinburgh is tight and only a narrow win for NO then it could come down to the wire.

Dundee could also bring home a big YES margin. A turnout of 80% or maybe more will be a credit to us all ( both sides )

[Stash]

I think they have made the following mistakes...I could go on. this has been one of the easiest posts I have ever written

Kinda missed the point of the question though!

[LJS]

Kinda missed the point of the question though!

I know but I was having fun but it's quite easy

1: acknowledge that it is not nonsense that Scotland could be independent - concentrate on why Scotland is Better in the uk

2: Don't overplay your strong hands (currency etc)

3: come up with an agreed package of additional powers for the Scottish parliament and a real commitment to implement them at least 6 months before the vote - not after thousands of people have cast their postal votes

4: at least make it look as if you give a shit about Scotland when the polls show you have a double figure lead & not just once Yougov shows a Yes lead

5: engage in the amazing democratic movement that has developed - send speakers to public meetings instead of avoiding them.

6: recognise and engage with the fact that there is a broad based yes campaign and do not insult people like me by banging on and on about Alec Salmond

[wee_insomniac]

To be honest, I thought David Dimbleby was pressing quite hard on both representatives tonight... He wouldn't give up if he thought one or the other was shirking a question.

I still don't know what's going to happen if the vote swings towards Yes, negotiations start, and then the campaigners for independence realise that they have to negotiate everything that has been promised to them, rather than just having all their preferred options accepted by the rest of the UK, Bank of England, the European Union etc. etc.

Surely each of these would have their own interests at heart?

[LJS]

To be honest, I thought David Dimbleby was pressing quite hard on both representatives tonight... He wouldn't give up if he thought one or the other was shirking a question.

I still don't know what's going to happen if the vote swings towards Yes, negotiations start, and then the campaigners for independence realise that they have to negotiate everything that has been promised to them, rather than just having all their preferred options accepted by the rest of the UK, Bank of England, the European Union etc. etc.

Surely each of these would have their own interests at heart?

we know that (at least most of us do). Most of the people I know who are voting yes are not doing so for personal gain & are doing so with their eyes open.

If there is a Yes vote - everything changes - first of all, most of the people who have led the NO campaign either have to resign or do their democratic duty and represent the interests of the people who elected them.

The priorities of the Uk parties will equally shift from winning an election to working out where we go next. the priorities will change. It is in both country's interests, then to get an agreement & move on. doesn't mean it will be easy.

[russycarps]

I see you beastly yes voters have been attacking poor red ed while he's just out trying to educate you heathens.

[russycarps]

It is in both country's interests, then to get an agreement & move on.

Is it? I see this written time and again from yes voters. You are so desperate for to be true but there will be no appetite among the electorate to give Scotland an easy ride, and theres a general election coming up

[LJS]

Is it? I see this written time and again from yes voters. You are so desperate for to be true but there will be no appetite among the electorate to give Scotland an easy ride, and theres a general election coming up

You may be offering an easy ride Russy Honey.

But i'm not sure i've ever asked for one.

not sure you are my type.

[wee_insomniac]

Is it? I see this written time and again from yes voters. You are so desperate for to be true but there will be no appetite among the electorate to give Scotland an easy ride, and theres a general election coming up

I agree, already there are back benchers starting to voice their opinions about the new additional powers for Scotland. If there is a Yes result and there are large associated costs to the rest of the UK, DC will have to do exactly what you've said and look after the best interests of the people who elected in the government, which is rUK.

[LJS]

I see you beastly yes voters have been attacking poor red ed while he's just out trying to educate you heathens.

Yeah and I see not one of you guys had anything to say to my post about a yes supporter being attacked.

I have condemned violence & intimidation on all side (whilst pointing out how much it is being not only exaggerated, but also whipped up by the gutter press) But no one on here has bothered to comment when I gave an example of an assault on a yes campaigner.

Probably beat himself up to frame the hippies for no campaign.

You guys are playing games

we are deciding the future of our country

[wee_insomniac]

Yeah and I see not one of you guys had anything to say to my post about a yes supporter being attacked.

I have condemned violence & intimidation on all side (whilst pointing out how much it is being not only exaggerated, but also whipped up by the gutter press) But no one on here has bothered to comment when I gave an example of an assault on a yes campaigner.

Probably beat himself up to frame the hippies for no campaign.

You guys are playing games

we are deciding the future of our country

It is a disgrace that we are starting to see acts of violence towards people on both sides of the campaign. Blood's running high and passions are starting to overspill. The fact that it's been so peaceful up until now is a total compliment to the Scottish people and to democracy.

And you are correct in saying that you are deciding on the future of our country... It's definitely not a game.

What happens next will change the future of the United Kingdom forever.

[russycarps]

Yeah and I see not one of you guys had anything to say to my post about a yes supporter being attacked.

I have condemned violence & intimidation on all side (whilst pointing out how much it is being not only exaggerated, but also whipped up by the gutter press) But no one on here has bothered to comment when I gave an example of an assault on a yes campaigner.

Probably beat himself up to frame the hippies for no campaign.

You guys are playing games

we are deciding the future of our country

There's violence on both sides. It's an utter disgrace and deplorable. What else is there to say? Thankfully it seems to be a very small minority

[wee_insomniac]

If nothing else, I hope that this referendum reinvigorates engagement in politics, especially amongst young people.... http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

[eFestivals]

Cheers Gary. Good post. On that last bit, what Salmond claimed was that corporation tax is charged " on the economic activity not where the company is based ".

Would be interested to hear your specific views on the accuracy or otherwise of this quote.

It's 100% wrong.

Corp tax is paid from the company's registered office, NOT from where the work takes place.

So Scotland will keep the corp tax from just the Scottish operations, when previously (within GERS) Salmond has been counting 100% of RBS's economic activity as Scottish.

(for anyone who understands how Salmond has worked GERS to his own advantage, it was rather telling what Salmond chose NOT to say, just as much as what he did chose to say)

Which means that Scotland has lost from GERS 90% of the GDP contributed by RBS, and as a result plunged Scotland into an even greater deficit than already existed.

[eFestivals]

I`m in the YES camp all the way mate. I am happy with their performance so far and they could yet blow it. Whats your views on Better Together ?

If you are genuinely interested in my views on how the No thanks could have done a better job get back to me and I `ll give it some thought mate. For a start I would have not had the NO thanks. NO is not a great word to use in any type of " vote " imo ( for a start ) too negative.

any campaign can only lay out the facts as they see them.

It's not no's fault that plenty in Scotland don't do facts, is it?

For example, for everything they say and publish, WoS is using the 2011-12 GERS economic numbers when there's newer 2012-13 numbers available for them to use. Now, why do you think WoS might have chosen to use older data than the newer data that's available?

But worse than that, no one pulls them up on it. Yes-ers mindlessly suck it up as meaningful when it doesn't mean shit.

[eFestivals]

Neil, we should really not be getting chuffed about the NHS North or South. You remain resistant to any chat about the privatisation going on in England despite everything put in front of you.

You're utterly wrong. I understand much better what's happening in England with the NHS than the yes campaign does (either that, or yes has chosen to lie - take your pick).

Is the NHS the structure, or the free delivery of healthcare? It makes a difference for how you view that for how you see what's happening. But for whichever view you take, the "privatisation" that's happening in England right now causes not the slightest threat to the funding of the NHS in Scotland, and that remains the case for all of the while that healthcare remains free at the point of delivery.

It remains the case that the tories have increased - in real terms - the funding for the NHS in England.

It remains the case that the SNP have DEcreased - in all terms terms - the funding for the NHS in Scotland.

In every conversation we have had about it I have started or ended my post with the fact that none of us should be point scoring on NHS. BUT...here we are almost rejoicing ( a bit like with the bankers ) and using it as a stick to beat Salmond.

No. I'm pointing out that the man who will lead your country into independence and so create its structures is a blatant liar about where the threats are to NHS funding in Scotland.

In my humble opinion you have allowed your hatred / obsession with one man to blinker you to the hopes and wishes of ( nearly half ) a nation. This is so black and white for you. I just don`t get it. He`s driving you bonkers and you don`t even have a vote !!??

Anywayz.....

Oh FFS.

The man is constantly proven as a blatant liar - worse than anything the tories lie about. Why haven't you noticed?

Do you agree that the NHS in Scotland is funded entirely through the block grant given back to Scotland by the Tories via the Barnett consequential. I know I am wasting my time here but lets take this one a step at a time.

Yes, it's funded by the block grant.

The NHS portion of the block grant has increased, not decreased. This is why NHS spending is increasing in England and falling in Scotland.

Yes, the size of the block grant has decreased (in real terms, if not in actual terms), and this means that Scotland has to make cuts as a result.

Why does Scotland have to make cuts? Because Scotland has a massive deficit.

Scotland has a deficit of over £12Bn, the third biggest deficit in the EU (and greater than Greece without the oil money) in percentage terms.

Independent or within the UK that deficit cannot continue, and so Scotland needs to make significant cuts (10%+) in public spending.

And that's before any of the consequences of indie are added in - which will cause Scotland to need to make even greater cuts than the tories might impose.

If you think tory austerity is bad, just wait for the indie-Scotland version!!!