Football 2011-2012

[eFestivals]

I hope for your sake it doesn’t break down as much as the real Van Persie. Great work on the van name though.

It's an old VW campervan. There's a big chance of greater breakdowns.

[The Nal]

Anelka off to China. Drogba to follow.

Is AVB going to get cash in Jan?

Edited December 12, 2011 by The Nal

[The Nal]

So predictions for tonight then? I’m going with a heavy City victory. 3 goals+.

[kaosmark2]

So predictions for tonight then? I’m going with a heavy City victory. 3 goals+.

[thetime]

To keep my prediction of utd being top at Christmas, im going for chelsea to sneak it 2-1.

Edited December 12, 2011 by thetime

[eFestivals]

So predictions for tonight then? I’m going with a heavy City victory. 3 goals+.

I've not got any sense of AVB having any sort of tactical nouse from what I've seen of Chelsea so far, so I don't have any problem agreeing with a prediction like that.

But at the same time Chelsea do have the players to shut City down from playing their normal game, so a cautious approach could get Chelsea a draw and if they got lucky they might get to sneak a win.

Given how Chelsea have played against the likes of Utd and Arsenal it'll probably go the way you say and stands the chance of being a cracking game.

[The Nal]

I've not got any sense of AVB having any sort of tactical nouse from what I've seen of Chelsea so far, so I don't have any problem agreeing with a prediction like that.

But at the same time Chelsea do have the players to shut City down from playing their normal game, so a cautious approach could get Chelsea a draw and if they got lucky they might get to sneak a win.

Given how Chelsea have played against the likes of Utd and Arsenal it'll probably go the way you say and stands the chance of being a cracking game.

Edited December 12, 2011 by The Nal

[Kowalski]

Anelka for £175,000 PER WEEK is utterly disgusting IMHO.

In other news, Gary Neville is such a crawling c**t, going out of his way to praise Chelsea in tonight's build up on SS1 so far! He should man up, and so should Sky as their presenter hasn't mentioned Villas-Boas' comments about Neville (http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/16122746.stm).

[pink_triangle]

Anelka for £175,000 PER WEEK is utterly disgusting IMHO.

[pink_triangle]

A great win for chelsea, that red card was a game changer. Haven't got a clue what lescott was doing, I can't believe he is a regular starter at a team like city, he just seems more of a villa/stoke standard.

[thetime]

Well united being top may come true after all! Come on gooners!!

[ralph250]

Well united being top may come true after all! Come on gooners!!

[ralph250]

Nal: wouldn't so much blame CL exit on just the youngster's inexperience. Most of the senior players didn't cover themselves in glory either through the group and Rooney missed a sitter. Missing Carrick, Anderson, Cleverley didn't help. I presume Fletcher wasn't fully fit either (given he's not trained this week), and if not question marks if Fergie prefers to play a midfield of 4 wingers and 1 defender over a designated midfielder. Wasn't just that game though. Our whole campaign was a bit of a mess, with complacency and carelessness throughout really. Take the Basle game at Old Trafford; 2 goals for the good and chucked it away. After they scored the first, we should've been more alert and controlled. Look to calm the game and take the sting out. Instead the players just seemed to think Basle had got lucky and it was a game they could boost their scoring stats; became far too open and frantic and suddenly we'd conceded 3.

Rotation and treating the early group games as ones to give minutes to those just back from injury or who hadn't played much probably didn't help either. Always a risk, given rusty players generally result in rusty performances.

Some will argue Fergie should shoulder some of that fault; that he could've looked to get the job done in the initial games, and then hope for dead rubbers to give games to the other players. To retain a squad though, you have to give games and keep everyone happy, plus we had a tough domestic fixture list at the time that prioritised to. Just didn't work out for us.

We didn't deserve to progress.

[ralph250]

Neil. Financial hit, but don't think the doom and gloom you're painting. Andersred outlines the cost here. http://andersred.blogspot.com/2011/12/financial-cost-of-uniteds-cl-exit.html

£15-17m off media, though progression into Europa can mitigate against that.

Plus any hit in ticket sales and the club have excluded the Europa games from the ACS (compulsory purchase), though as that article says possibility of 4 home games in Europa compared to 3 in CL.

We made a profit last year, and most of the above hit will be absorbed by increases in the commercial portfolio over last year (1st Quarter results show increase of £5.4m over last year; DHL £10m a year, plus five additional telecommunications sponsors). Plus reduction in interest liability. As of 30th Sept, Club have bought back £87.5m of the bonds.

I don't see it crippling us.

...and regards City being out of sight. Maybe, Maybe not. Similar probably said of Chelsea and they were a stronger team imo.Rather take on the team that scores frequently but concedes 15 goals in 15 games, than the one that conceded 15 in 38.

[eFestivals]

City will probably feel aggrieved with that pen shout but then Toure and Kompany another day probably could've walked.

if either of them should have walked then Meirleses should have been off before them - and then the game would have defo gone the other way.

I don't think last night says very much apart from City are going to drop points here and there like all teams do. The one thing it might say about them is that they still have players who don't much like an awful British winter's night, Robinho styleee.

[eFestivals]

Neil. Financial hit, but don't think the doom and gloom you're painting. Andersred outlines the cost here. http://andersred.blo...ds-cl-exit.html

I was amused last week that even the beeb are quoting Anders now.

The difference between your and my view is one based on the valuation of the club. If the club is really worth the value you and the Glazers put on it, they'll be fine.

But there's naff all in standard economics which can justify that price. The only thing that sustains it is mug punters.

There's a limit to how many mug punters there are, and sooner or later those mug punters will wise up. It's happened once in football - and to Utd - already and quite recently, and it will happen again.

The proof of my words? The fact that those 'red knights' walked away: they couldn't make a business case for paying the price that the Glazers feel the club is worth need to get for the club.

There's two possible scenarios to the end game of this: the Glazers find a non-business buyer, a sugar daddy who doesn't much care what the club is actually worth because he wants the club and doesn't care about making money; or no one will pay stupid money and the Glazers - and so Utd too - are bankrupted when settlement day comes.

The first is always a possibility, tho the chances or it happening are lessening as time goes by due to a myriad of things including the world financial situation and the fact that it's now politically dangerous for rich Arabs to spunk fortunes on toys.

The second is always a possibility and there's already history to show that things are getting more and more difficult for the Glazers in taking on ever-bigger loans to stave off settlement day.

Edited December 13, 2011 by eFestivals

[The Nal]

So I (thankfully) got that wrong last night. Big test for City now.

Next 5 games:

City: Arsenal, Stoke, West Brom, Sunderland, Liverpool

Utd: QPR, Fulham, Wigan, Blackburn, Newcastle.

Nal: wouldn't so much blame CL exit on just the youngster's inexperience. Most of the senior players didn't cover themselves in glory either through the group and Rooney missed a sitter. Missing Carrick, Anderson, Cleverley didn't help. I presume Fletcher wasn't fully fit either (given he's not trained this week), and if not question marks if Fergie prefers to play a midfield of 4 wingers and 1 defender over a designated midfielder. Wasn't just that game though. Our whole campaign was a bit of a mess, with complacency and carelessness throughout really. Take the Basle game at Old Trafford; 2 goals for the good and chucked it away. After they scored the first, we should've been more alert and controlled. Look to calm the game and take the sting out. Instead the players just seemed to think Basle had got lucky and it was a game they could boost their scoring stats; became far too open and frantic and suddenly we'd conceded 3.

Rotation and treating the early group games as ones to give minutes to those just back from injury or who hadn't played much probably didn't help either. Always a risk, given rusty players generally result in rusty performances.

Some will argue Fergie should shoulder some of that fault; that he could've looked to get the job done in the initial games, and then hope for dead rubbers to give games to the other players. To retain a squad though, you have to give games and keep everyone happy, plus we had a tough domestic fixture list at the time that prioritised to. Just didn't work out for us.

[ralph250]

The proof of my words? The fact that those 'red knights' walked away: .

Edited December 13, 2011 by ralph250

[ralph250]

I'm going to claim all of the credit for RVP's great run of form ... back around when that run started, I bought a VW campervan, and cos it was red it got named Persie ... van Persie.

If/when my van breaks down I'll be sure to let Wenger know.

[eFestivals]

Only proof if they were the altruistic benefactors they painted themselves as, and not just some businessmen looking to exploit supporter discontent against the Glazers to get the club on the cheap.

You've missed the third - and this is what I took them to be...

A bunch of businessmen looking at Utd as a business, that backed out when they realised that it couldn't be a business investment at the price they'd have to pay to acquire it.

That's the scenario that fits the facts far more than any other option.

I don't think my valuation of the club really comes into it either.

The valuation is EVERYTHING!!!!

All the while that the Glazers can hold out, they're safe. But they're only able to hold out for as long as they can convince others that their own valuation is what other people are prepared to pay. All aspects of this support the other aspects.

For example, the share issue they're doing (or have now done?) values the club at something like £1.6Bn (I've not kept up on this, but the exact value doesn't matter for this hypothetical scenario). If people buy the shares at that valuation then potential loaners of money to the Glazers will also be happy to loan money at around that valuation. But if people won't buy shares at that valuation, then no one is going to loan the Glazers money at that valuation and those who have already loaned at anything above what people are prepared to pay will start calling their loans in - and the Glazers are fucked because they have no other way of covering the loans except with other loans.

The Glazers had already drained the traditional source of loans (or loans at a decent interest rate, anyway), which is why they went for the share sale .... this very fact should make share buyers think "whoaaaa! hang on!", but it hasn't ... because those share buyers are mug punters, or at best extremely rich individuals who can afford to take a risk because what they might lose on Utd they'd hope to make up on other investments.

The mug punters are just mugs (in the exact same way the buyers of the shares of many clubs were in that plc rush of the nineties - they're not buying an investment, they're buying a part of the club they love and are highly likely to lose their shirt).

The 'investors' are taking a punt, and don't really care if they lose on Utd as they plan to win overall on their investments (tho not all of them will). They're taking that punt on the basis of what's happened previously - but what happened previously was sustained by a fucked up world financial system, and nothing real or repeatable. They'll only get to win if a sugar daddy buys Utd for a price it's not worth (see the 'red knights', above).

Both types of buyers are betting on a better future than there's been yet ... but things are not better in shirking economy or an economy without the cheap and easy credit there's been for the last decade, and anyway Utd are already just about fully exploited. There only hope here is for a break-up of the current Prem rules, which would allow Utd to get the money that revolves around them but currently goes to other clubs.

The growth that Utd would need for things to pan out good is very unlikely to come, the cheap credit to roll over loans isn't there any more, and the Glazers are slowly using up the other options while those other options are becoming less and less attractive to potential funders - mug punters or not.

One hope in things coming good for the Glazers is for a sudden upturn in the world's economy before the loans & bonds become due - and even the most hopeful person isn't likely to be seeing that as things stand.

So their other remaining option is to cash in from more mug punters before the shit hits the fan - so you can be sure that they'll be further share sales before that £500M bond becomes due.

Anyways:

1. I'm not overly sure Glazers are looking to exit just yet.

Perhaps not - but the markets will override their wants sooner or later.

2. Personally, I just think in 2017 when the bonds mature, we'll refinance again, whether by bond issue or bank. I can't see much issue with us securing another refinancing as I don't believe the club will be perceived as a particularly high risk borrower at this point of time.

the club is already thought of as a high risk borrower - otherwise it would be able to raise traditional loans at a fair price.

It was a high risk borrower before this financial crisis. The bonds are viewed by the markets as a lesser risk only because no one person is carrying all of the risk, but I can't see how that can be sustained once people wise up to the fact that how such financial things have been viewed previously isn't how they're viewed now.

hopefully be at lower rates (subject to what happens worldwide financially by then I guess).

no one in the financial markets believes that the long-term for interest rates is anything but far higher than we've become used to.

It's precisely because of this (even before the crash it was obviously the case to all but the stupidly hopeful such as Lehmans) that I've felt the long term is terminal for the Glazers. Robbing Peter to pay Paul can work in the fantasy economics of the last decade or so, it can't work in the real world we're returning to.

Turnover's risen ...

it was still rising at Lehmans. It did them fuck all good. Turnover means nothing, profits mean everything.

Plus take into account the huge multi-million Nike deal renewal in 2015, where if push comes to shove United could probably secure a cash advancement in exchange of a more favourable deal for Nike.

So more of robbing Peter to pay Paul ... there comes a point when it can't go on. That point will hit eventually, which is the basis for my view.

I think it could've happened in the past but I think the Glazers got lucky; Fergie delivering 4 league titles, a Champions League, 2 further CL finals, 2 league cups on a transfers net spent of £56.9m.

Yep, they got lucky. A big part of that luck had little to do with what happened on the field (tho that or course helped), and far more to do with the world of finance becoming terminally stupid .... but even in that stupid world the Glazers were a bad risk for the traditional lenders, hence the high interest rates or no loan options at all.

The might ride it out, and I could be wrong. Everything depends on the world's economy, and when the run on dollar happens (and that's going to happen at some point not decades away too).

The Glazers have bet on the best possible world scenario. I can't see how they're going to get that.

[Ed209]

Get well soon Darren Fletcher. That can be a nasty illness.

[The Nal]

Get well soon Darren Fletcher. That can be a nasty illness.

[thetime]

hope he makes a full return to fitness, an under rated footballer who always gives is all.

and one of the good guys in football.

[kaosmark2]

hope he makes a full return to fitness, an under rated footballer who always gives is all.

and one of the good guys in football.

[pink_triangle]

How is he under-rated? His effort, commitment, and talent for doing the basics consistently right are widely admired, but he's not an expert at anything, be it creatively or defensively (not a perfect tackler). He's recognised as being good at what he does. He's not compared to greats because he isn't great.

I'd say he's one of the most aptly rated footballers around, people don't hype him up to be more than he is, nor fail to attribute his contributions.